簡易檢索 / 詳目顯示
| 研究生： |
普沙 |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱： |
太平洋島嶼的區域經濟整合：機會與考驗 |
| 指導教授： | 吳文傑 |
| 學位類別： |
碩士
Master |
| 系所名稱： |
商學院 - 國際經營管理英語碩士學位學程(IMBA) International MBA Program College of Commerce(IMBA) |
| 論文出版年： | 2008 |
| 畢業學年度： | 96 |
| 語文別： | 中文 |
| 論文頁數： | 79 |
| 中文關鍵詞： | 太平洋島嶼 |
| 相關次數： | 點閱：93 下載：83 |
| 分享至: |
| 查詢本校圖書館目錄 查詢臺灣博碩士論文知識加值系統 勘誤回報 |
太平洋島嶼的區域經濟整合：機會與考驗
The PICs have placed regional integration as the priority dimension to sustain and promote economic growth and prosperity in the region. Presently, these island nations buckle under the lengthy and complicated negotiation process for FTAs within the region and with the outside world. This paper examines the opportunities and challenges posed by the current FTAs under negotiation and/or under implementation. The analysis undertaken in this research indicates that due to low economic interdependence and high risk of political instability among the leading economies of the region, any regional FTA will only bring marginal benefit to the region, most of which will be enjoyed by few leading players. However, the region has the greatest potential to gain by integrating into the global economy. The current pace of liberalization and globalization suggests that delaying any FTA with the developed partners will only add on to the opportunity cost as well as adjustment costs in the long-run. Hence, the leading economies need to take the first step in negotiating bilateral or multilateral FTAs with ANZ as well as their close trading partners from the Asia.
Regional Economic Integration within Pacific Island Countries: Opportunities and Challenges
By
Rakesh Prasad
Abstract…………………………………………………………………………………….i
Dedication…………………………………………………………………………………ii
Acronyms…………………………………………………………………………………iii
1 Introduction……………………………………………………………………..…1
2 Literature Review………………………………………………………………….4
3 Methodology and Overview of the Model………………………………………...9
4 Overview of the PICs…………………………………………………………….10
5 Macroeconomic Characteristics of PICs…………………………………………13
6 Regional Economic Integration within PICs……….……………………………18
6.1 History of Regional Integration in the Pacific…………………………...18
6.2 Where the PICs Stand Now……………………………………………...20
6.2.1 The Pacific Plan………………………………………………………….21
6.2.2 Pacific Island Countries Trade Agreement (PICTA)……………………24
6.2.3 Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA)………………………………..26
6.2.4 Pacific Agreement on Closer Economic Relations (PACER)…………...28
7 Global Experiences………………………………………………………………29
7.1 European Experiences……………………………………………………31
7.2 Caribbean Experiences…………………………………………………..32
8 Analysis of Trade and Economic Relationships of the PICs…………………….36
8.1 PICs and the World – Global Integration………………………………..36
8.2 Trade and Economic Cooperation within PICs – Implications on PICTA41
8.3 EU-Pacific Trade and Economic Relationship – EPA…………………...43
8.4 PICS and ANZ – Implications on PACER………………………………47
9 Domestic Stability and a Majority Structure of Small States……………………51
10 Challenges of Economic Integration……………………………………………..53
10.1 Costs and Benefits of Liberalization and Integration……………………53
10.2 National Sovereignty…………………………………………………….55
10.3 Governance and Infrastructure…………………………………………..55
10.4 Conflicts and Political Instability………………………………………..56
11 Conclusion/Recommendations…………………………………………………..58
References………………………………………………………………………………..61
Appendixes………………………………………………………………………………65
1 PICs Structure of Output - % of 2005 GDP……………………………………65
2 Summary – FICs Real GDP Growth Rate (Annual Change %)…………….…66
3 History of Regional Economic Integration Efforts in the Pacific……………...67
4 Pacific Trade Agreements……………………………………………………...69
5 Summary of the Potential Impacts of PICTA on PICs………………………...70
6 PICs Merchandise Export to the World (US$ m)……………………………...72
7 PICs Merchandise Import from the World (US$ m)…………………………..73
8 Ranking of the PICs in World Trade…………………………………………..74
9 PICs Exports to EU25 (in million Euro)……………………………………….75
10 PICs Imports from EU25 (in million Euro)…………………………………..76
11 Characteristic Features of PICs, Implications for Trade & Opportunities……77
Additional Resources…………………………………………………………………….79
List of Tables
Table 1 Selected Key Geographic, Social, and Economic Indicators of PICs…………..12
Table 2 PICs by Population, Size, & GDP………………………………………………14
Table 3 Analysis of the PICs Real GDP Growth………………………………………...16
Table 4 Revenue loss as % of total revenue from FTAs…………………………………25
Table 5 A Comparison of Variables in Different Regions………………………………30
Table 6 Comparison of the Key Characteristics of the PICs and Caribbean…………….34
Table 7 PICs Major Export Partners: Most Recent Year (% of total exports)…………..39
Table 8 PICs Major Import Partners: Most Recent Year (% of total imports)…………..40
Table 9 PICs Percentage of imports from Fiji in total imports…………………………..42
Table 10 PICs Trade with Australia (A$’000)…………………………………………...49
Table 11: Summary of the Three Variables for PICs……………………………………59
List of Figures
Figure 1 Map of the PICs………………………………………………………………...11
Figure 2 PICs Real GDP Growth – Average Annual Change %.......................................16
Figure 3 Average GDP Growth of the 3 Groups………………………………………...17
Figure 4 Merchandise Export of the PICs to the World…………………………………37
Figure 5 Merchandise Import of the PICs from the World………………………………38
Figure 6 PICs Exports and Imports with EU (25)………………………………………..45
Figure 7 PICs Exports to EU by Groups…………………………………………………45
Figure 8 PICs Imports from EU by Groups……………………………………………...46
1. Albertin, G. 2008. Regionalism or Multilateralism? A Political Economy Choice. IMF Working Paper, IMF Institute
2. Ben-David, D. 1998. Equalizing Exchange: Trade Liberalization and Economic Convergence. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 108
3. Bhatwati, J. and Panagariya, A. 1996. The Economics of Preferential Trade Agreements. AEI Press, Washington, D.C.
4. Borgne, E.L. and Medas, P. 2007. Sovereign Wealth Funds in the Pacific Island Countries: Macro-Fiscal Linkages. IMF Working Paper, WP/07/297, Fiscal Affairs Department
5. Coe, D. T. and Hoffmaister, A. W. 1997. North-South R&D Spillovers. The Economic Journal (U.K.), 107; 134-39
6. De Melo, J., Panagariya, A., and Rodrik, D. 1993. The New Regionalism: A Country Perspective. New Dimensions in Regional Integration, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
7. Dollar, D. 1992. Outward-Oriented Developing Economies Really Do Grow More Rapidly: Evidence from 95 LDCs, 1976-85. Economic Development and Cultural Change
8. Edwards, Sebastian. 1993. Openness, Trade Liberalization, and Growth in Developing Countries. Journal of Economic Literature, XXXI (3)
9. Grossman, G.M. and Helpman, E. 1991. Innovation and Growth in the Global Economy. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
10. Haaland, J. and Norman, D. 1992. Global Production Effects of European Integration, in L.A. Winters, (Ed.). Trade Flows and Trade Policy After 1992, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
11. Hill, C.W.L. Sixth Edition. International Business Competing in the Global Marketplace. McGraw-Hill International Edition. Chapters 5 – 9.
12. IMF Staff. 2001. Global Trade Liberalization and the Developing Countries. IMF (http://www.imf.org/external/np/exr/ib/2001/110801.htm)
13. Institute for International Trade and Pacific Trade Consult. 2007. The potential Impact of PICTA on Smaller Forum Island Nations, Final Report.
14. Jayaraman, T.K. 2005. Regional Integration in the Pacific. Working Paper, No. 2005/16. Department of Economics, University of the South Pacific, Suva.
15. Lee, M.C. 2003. Political Economy of Regionalism in Southern Africa. Boulder Co: Lynne Reinner Publishers.
16. Narayan, P.K., Prasad, B.C. 2006. The long-run impact of coups on Fiji’s economy: evidence from a computable general equilibrium model. Journal of International Development, 19(2), 149-160.
17. Narayan, P.K., Prasad, B.C. 2006. Trade Liberalisation and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence for Fiji from the Computable General Equilibrium Model. Discussion Paper No. 07/06 (Volume 1). Griffith Business School, Griffith University.
18. Narsey, W. 2004. PICTA, PACER and EPAs: Where are we Going? Tales of Fags, Booze and Rugby. Working Paper No. 6/2004. Pacific Institute of Advanced Studies in Development and Governance, University of the South Pacific, Suva.
19. Nathan Associates Inc. 2007. Pacific Regional Trade and Economic Cooperation. Joint Baseline and Gap Analysis. Pacific Islands Forum Secretariat.
20. Pacific Islands Forum Secretariat. 2007. Pacific Plan Annual Progress Report.
21. Panagariya, A. 2000. Preferential Trade Liberalization: The Traditional Theory and New Developments. Journal of Economics Literature, 38, 287-331
22. Qian, H. 2007. Explaining Regionalism: A Political-Economy Model. The MPSA 65th Annual Meeting, Chicago, IL
23. Robson, P. 1980. The Economics of International Integration, 4th edition
24. Romer, P.M. 1990. Endogenous Technological Change. Journal of Political Economy, 98, 71-102
25. Sachs, J.D. and Warner, A. 1995. Economic Reform and the Process of Global Integration. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity: No. 1, Brookings Institution
26. Scollay, R. and Gilbert, J.P. 2000. Measuring the Gains from APEC Trade Liberalization: An Overview of CGE Assessments. World Economy, 23(2), 175-197
27. Soni, N., Harries, B., and Zinner-Toa, B. 2007. Responding to the Revenue Consequences of Trade Reforms in the Forum Island Countries.
28. Storr, V. H. 2004. The Political Economy of Caribbean Integration CARICOM before the Revised Treaty of Chaguaramas. Working Paper. Mercatus Center at George Mason University.
29. Tapuaiga, E. 2004. Trade Liberalization: Prospects and Problems for Small Developing South Pacific Island Economies. USPEC Working Paper, no. 14. Department of Economics, University of the South Pacific, Suva.
30. Thirlwall, A.P. 2000. Trade, Trade Liberalization and Economic Growth: Theory and Evidence. Economic Research Papers No. 63, University of Kent, Canterbury
31. Thomas, S. 2004. Euphoria in the Pacific? Regional Economic Partnership Agreements – Implications for the Pacific. New Zealand Asia Pacific European Studies Association Conference, National Centre for Research on Europe, University of Canterbury
32. Viner, J. 1950. The Customs Union Issue. Carnegie Endowment, New York
33. Wannacott, R.J. 1996. Free Trade Agreements: For Better of Whose? American Economic Review, 86(2), 62-66
34. Wint, A.G. 2003. In Search of Economic Benefits from Caribbean Integration: The Need for Redirection. CARICOM 30th Anniversary Conference “Regional Governance and Integrated Development”, Kingston, Jamaica.
35. World Bank. 2002. Embarking on a Global Voyage: Trade Liberalization and Complementary Reforms in the Pacific. Pacific Islands Regional Economic Report No. 24417-EAP. Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Unit, East Asia and Pacific Region.