本文採用合成控制法（SCM）驗證美中貿易戰對中國與台灣的出口反應之因果關係。主要關注點為中國與台灣對美國的出口額變化以量化貿易破壞效果及貿易轉移效果，出口額將根據商品是否包含在美國附加關稅中進一步拆解為被課稅及非被課稅貿易額進行探討。有鑒於出口額是以 2010 年第一季為始所計算之累計成長率，因而結果探討將聚焦於COVID-19 流行之前的最後一個時期2020 年第一季，以避免新冠肺炎所帶來的影響干擾研究目標。據估計，中國對美國的出口總額和被課稅出口額分別減少了80.21和67.48個百分點，證實貿易戰對雙邊貿易造成了顯著的負面影響。相反，台灣對美國的出口總額和被課稅出口額分別增加了 29.42 和 29.59 個百分點，顯示美國將某些商品的需求從中國轉移到台灣。最後，本文還提供了對世界其他地區出口變化的證據，其中中國與台灣對美國以外的國家出口額改變分別為-4.34和16.58個百分點。

This paper conducts the synthetic control method (SCM) to verify the causal effects of the US-China trade war on China's and Taiwan's export responses.
The main focus is to quantify the trade destruction effect along with the trade diversion effect by assessing changes in export value from China and Taiwan to the US respectively.
The outcome of interest is further decomposed into taxed and non-taxed ones in accordance with commodities being included in additional US tariffs or not.
As results are calculated in accumulated growth rates since 2010q1, the evaluation will specifically focus on the last period before the prevalence of COVID-19 in 2020q1 to avoid concerns over confounding effects brought by the shock of the global pandemic.
It is estimated that China shows 80.21 and 67.48 percentage points less total and taxed export value to the US, suggesting the trade war has caused notable negative impacts on bilateral trade.

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