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研究生: 陳錦滄
論文名稱: 商情預測理論架構與實務運作以個案公司為例
指導教授: 周文賢
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 商學院 - 企業管理學系
Department of Business Administration
論文出版年: 1991
畢業學年度: 79
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 130
相關次數: 點閱:167下載:0
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  • 1、前言----------------1
    1.1 研究動機----------------1
    1.2 研究目的----------------2
    1.3 研究範圍----------------2
    1.4 章節結構----------------3
    2、文獻探討----------------5
    2.1 企業經營環境與商情構面----------------5
    2.2 商情預測理論之發展----------------10
    2.3 預測方法與執行----------------13
    3、商情預測理論架構----------------16
    3.1 商情預測之概念----------------16
    3.2 企業商情結構----------------21
    3.3 企業特質分析----------------36
    3.4 預測項目選擇----------------40
    3.5 資料蒐集----------------44
    3.6 統計分析----------------50
    3.7 管理決策支援----------------72
    4、商情預測實務運作----------------75
    4.1 個案公司簡介----------------75
    4.2 企業特質分析----------------75
    4.3 預測項目選擇----------------80
    4.4 個人電腦商情預測架構-----------------86
    4.5 錯體環境頭測----------------89
    4.6 產業環境預測----------------106
    4.7 管理決策支援------------------------------118
    5、結論----------------121
    5.1 研究發現----------------121
    5.2 研究限制----------------122
    5.3 後續研究之建議----------------123
    參考文獻----------------124
    附錄A 個人電腦產業技術預測問卷----------------128

    1. 中文部分

    (1)宇宗先(民6 1),經濟預測,中央研究院經濟研究所。
    (2) 方世杰(民7 7),市場預測方法一百種,台北,書泉出版社。
    (3) 司徒達賢(民58) ,「台灣企業之環境分析」,企銀季刊,第三卷,第一期7 月, PP.32 。
    (4) 台灣區電工器材同業公會(民80) ,台種區電工器材同業公會會員名錄。
    (5 )周文賢(民79) ,時間序列分析未出版之課堂講義,政治大學統計研究所。
    (6) 林建山(民76) ,商情預測?技術與實務,台北,環球經濟社。
    (7) 林茂文(民75) ,時間序列分析與頭測,第二版,台北,華泰書局。
    (8) 郭明哲(民74) ,預測方法?理論與實例,第七版,台北,中興管理顧問公司。
    (9) 郭崑謨(民73) ,企業管理?總系統導向,修訂版,台北,華泰書局。
    (10) 陳定國,黃俊英(民58) ,企業研究應用技街大全,台北,大世紀出版公司。
    (11)黃俊英(民76) ,行銷研究:管理與技街,第二版,台北,華泰書局。
    (12 )資策會市場情報中心(各月份) ,資訊工業透析。
    (13 )葉進成(民78) ,行銷資訊系統之建立?以個案公司為例,淡江大學管理科學研究所未出服碩士論文。
    (14 )魏啟林編譯(民7 7) ,行銷學精論,台北,華泰書局。
    (16 )劉向上(民73) ,「如何從事銷售預測」,行銷與推銷,第65 卷,12 月, PP.85-91 。

    2 、英文部份
    (1)Aaker, D.A.(1984), Strategic Market Management, Taipei, Huatai Book Store.
    (2)Barron, M. and D. Targett(1988), “Managing Forecasts”User and Expert”, Management Decision, Vol.26, pp.41-44.
    (3)Buchin, S. and T.A Davidson(1983), “Computer-Aided Sales Forecasting: How the Skeptics Can learn to Love It”, Business Marketing, Vol.68, pp.24-81.
    (4)Bernstein, G.L.(1984), “The Art of Using Forecasts Effectively”, Directors & Boards, Vol.8 pp.23-26.
    (5) Beebs, K. and J. Malehorn(1987), “Structural Change—An Overview:Problems, Causes, Tests and Solutions”, Journal of Business Forecasting, Vol.6, pp.13-16.
    (6)Chambers, J., S. Mullick and D. Smith(1974), An Executive’s Guide to Forecasting, N.Y.:John Wiley and Sons.
    (7)Chandler, A.D.(1962), Strategy and Structure, Cambridge MA:The MIT Press.
    (8)Cooley, T. and E. Prescott(1976),”Estimation in the Presence of Stochastic Parameter Variation”, Econometrica, 44, pp.167-184.
    (9) Dill, W.R.(1958), “Environment as an Influence on Managerial Autonomy”, Administrative science Quarterly, Vol.2, March, pp.409-443.
    (10)Duncan, R.B.(1972), “Characteristics of Organizational Environments and Perceived Environmental Uncertainty”, Administrative Science Quarterly, Vol.17, Sep, pp.315.
    (11)Gross, C.W.(1988), “Bridging the Communications Gap Between Managers and Forecasters”, Journal of Business Forecasting, Vol.6, pp.6-9.
    (12)Hafer, C.W. and D.E. Schendel (1978), Strategy Formulation: Analytical Concepts, St. Paul: West Publishing Company.
    (13)Ha11, R.H. (972), Organizations: Structure and Process, Engle-Wood Chiffs,N.J. Prentice-Hall, Inc. pp.297-324.
    (14)Kress, G. and J. Snyder (1988), "ABC of Box-Jenkins Models", Journal of Business Forecasting, Vol.7, pp.2-8.
    (15)Kotler, P. (1988), Marketing Management: Analysis, Planning, and Control, Sixth edition, Prentice Hall. Inc.
    (16)Migliaro, A. (984), "How to Sep up and Operate a Formal Forecasting System: Part I", Journal of Business Forecasting, Vol.3,pp.2-6.
    (17)Narchal, R.M., K. Kittappa and P. Bhattacharya (1987), "An Environmental Scanning System for Business Planning", Long Range Planning ,Vol.20, pp.96-105.
    (18)Pindyck, R.S. and D.L . Rubinfeld (1981), Econometric Models and Economic Forecasts, Second Edition?, McGraw-Hall Book Company .
    (19)Porter, M.R. (1980), Competitive Strategy: Techniques for Anslyzing Industries and Competitors, N.Y.: The Free Press.
    (20)Rice, G. and E. Mahmoud 09~O), "Political Risk Forecasting by Canadian Firms", International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 6,pp.89-120.
    (21)SAS User's Guide: ETS, Version 5 edition (1985), Cary: SAS Institute Inc.
    (22)SAS Procedure Guide for Personal Computer, Version 6 Edition(1985), Cary, Institute Inc.
    (23)Simon, H.A. (960), The New Science of Management Decision, N. Y.:Harper & Row, pp.40-42.
    (24)Simmons, L.F., L.P. simmons and G. Wright (1988), "Forecasting Using a Decision Support System", Journal of Business Forecasting,Vol. 7, pp.16-19.
    (25)Scheibe, M., M. Skutsch and J. Schofer (1975), "Experimentsin Delphi Methodology", The Delphi Method, pp.262-287.
    (26)Vandaele, W. (1983), Applied Time Series and Box-Jenkins Models,Academic Press, Inc.
    (27)Wheelwright, S. and S.Makridakis(1977), Forecasting Methods for Management, 2nd edition, N.Y. :John Wiley and Sons.
    (28)Weitz, R.R. (1986), "NOSTRADAMUS: A Knowledge-Based Forecasting Advisor", International Journal of Forecasting, Vol.2, pp.273-283
    (30)Yelsey, A.A. (1984), "Multiple Image Forecasting", Planning Review, Vol.12,pp.27-29.

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