| 研究生: |
蔡秉寰 Tsai, Ping-Huan |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱: |
資產配置之動態規劃 An Application of Dynamic Asset Allocation: Two-period Investigation |
| 指導教授: |
陳松男
Chen, Son-Nan |
| 學位類別: |
碩士
Master |
| 系所名稱: |
商學院 - 金融學系 Department of Money and Banking |
| 論文出版年: | 2001 |
| 畢業學年度: | 89 |
| 語文別: | 中文 |
| 論文頁數: | 70 |
| 中文關鍵詞: | 多期資產配置 、動態規劃 、馬可夫性質 、均數/變異數模型 、隨機規劃 |
| 外文關鍵詞: | multiperiod asset allocation, mean-variance, multistage decision process |
| 相關次數: | 點閱:182 下載:71 |
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資產配置乃是將資金分散投資到主要的資產類別中,諸如股票、債券、現金等。傳統的均數/變異數方法在資產配置上早已被廣泛的運用。但是,現今的金融情勢多變,多期配置的需求提高,傳統均數/變異數方法只處理單一期間的資產配置,且反應未來的能力不佳,顯然已經不適用。
本論文提供一種多期動態的資產配置,可以改良過去單點估計值的缺點,同時能夠將未來情境納入考量,使多期資產配置更富策略性。並實證在兩期的情況下,期中調整資產組合與不調整的差異性。從而瞭解持續的動態規劃,方能提升資產配置的效率性。
Asset allocation is the process of dividing an investment fund among major asset classes such as equities, bonds, cash, etc. Traditional mean-variance portfolio selection is widely used for asset allocation. However, as time goes by, the financial condition changes rapidly. The method of mean-variance analysis has some limitations. It not only can’t deal with multiperiod asset allocation, but also cannot reflect future economic circumstances, especially for long-term investments.
This research tries to use the method of multi-stage dynamic programming for asset allocation. This method can improve the pits of single estimate in using mean-variance analysis, and take future scenarios into account so that the model will become more useful in practice. The two-period empirical results have shown that using continuous dynamic programming to build strategic asset allocation decision can improve the efficiency of asset allocation.
封面頁
證明書
致謝詞
論文摘要
目錄
表目錄
圖目錄
第壹章 緒論
第一節 研究動機
第二節 研究目的
第三節 研究架構與方法
第貳章 文獻回顧
第一節 傳統模型探討
第二節 動態規劃介紹
第參章 模型架構
第一節 一般模型介紹
第二節 論文模型架構
第肆章 研究結果
第一節 基本設定說明
第二節 實證方法
第三節 實證結果
第伍章 結論與未來研究方向
附錄
附錄一
附錄二
附圖
附表
參考文獻
英文部分
1.Bierman, H. Jr., “A utility approach to the portfolio allocation decision and the investment horizon”, The Journal of Portfolio Management, Fall 1998, 81-87.
2.Birge, J. R., “Stochastic programming computation and applications”, INFORMS Journal on Computing, v9 (2), Spring 1997.
3.Birge, J. R. & Francois Louveaux, “Introduction to stochastic programming”, 1997, Springer-Verlag.
4.Carino, David R. & Andrew L. Turner, “Multiperiod asset allocation with derivative assets”, In: Ziemba W.T., Mulvey, J.M., eds., Worldwide Asset and Liability Modeling, Cambridge University Press, 182-204.
5.Chopra, V.K. & W.T. Ziemba, (1993) “The effect of errors in means, variances, and covariances on optimal portfolio choice”, Journal of Portfolio Management, 1993
6.Hensel, C.R., D. Don Ezra, & John H. Ilkiw, (1991) “The importance of the asset allocation decision”, Financial analysts Journal, July/August, 1991.
7.Marans, C. D., I. P. Androulakis, C. A. Floudas, A. J. Berger, & J. M. Mulvey, “Solving long-term financial planning problems via global optimization”, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 21, 1997, 1405-1425.
8.Messina, E., & G. Mitra, (1997) “Modelling and analysis of multistage stochastic programming problems: A software environment”, European Journal of operational Research, v101, p343-359.
9.Mulvey, J.M. (2000) “Introduction to financial optimization: Mathematical Programming Special Issue”, Mathematical Programming, 89(2), 2001, 205-216.
10.Mulvey, J. M., & W.T. Ziemba, (1998) “Asset and liability management systems for long-term investors: discussion of the issues”, In: Ziemba W.T., Mulvey, J.M., eds., Worldwide Asset and Liability Modeling, Cambridge University Press, 3-38.
11.Musumeci, Jim, & Joe Musumeci, “A dynamic programming approach to multiperiod asset allocation”, Journal of Financial Services Research, 15(1), 1999, 5-21.
12.Koskosidis, Yiannis A. & Antonio M. Duarte, “A scenario-Based Approach to Active Asset Allocation”, The Journal of Portfolio Management, Winter(1997), 74-85.
中文部分
1.張宇恭,動態規劃—作業研究之二(理論及應用),民國67年,三民書局。
2.游欣慧,多種情境模式資產配置之研究,台大財務金融研究所碩士論文,民國89年。
3.投資分析+Matlab應用,財務金融研究中心(銘傳大學),民國88年。