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| 研究生： |
馬可 Marcos D. Torres |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱： |
台彎 DRAM: 曾經高成長產業的族群面臨困難抉擇 Taiwan DRAM: tough choices in an ex-growth Industry |
| 指導教授： |
吳文傑
Wu, Jack |
| 學位類別： |
碩士
Master |
| 系所名稱： |
商學院 - 國際經營管理英語碩士學位學程(IMBA) International MBA Program College of Commerce(IMBA) |
| 論文出版年： | 2011 |
| 畢業學年度： | 99 |
| 語文別： | 英文 |
| 論文頁數： | 47 |
| 中文關鍵詞： | 台彎 DRAM |
| 外文關鍵詞： | DRAM |
| 相關次數： | 點閱：134 下載：27 |
| 分享至: |
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This case is intended to be used in an Strategic Management or Strategic Alliances course to highlight the challenges faced by second tier industry players in a capital intensive industry with complex alliances and increasingly severe industry cycles.
The DRAM industry has become an ex-growth highly cyclical industry which requires high amounts of capital expenditure and scale to succeed. Taiwan DRAM companies have been facing unsustainable trends already for sometime as operating cash flows have failed to match capital expenditures even during the good times of the “Tech Bubble” of the late 1990s. The situation of DRAM companies deteriorated in the late 2000s as players over estimated Windows Vista related demand for DRAM and over invested. The situation worsened still further as the Great Recession caused a slump in world wide demand.
The situation of Taiwanese DRAM companies was very dire despite the exit of several companies from the industry during the Great Recession. The Taiwanese government attempted to lead a consolidation in the industry but failed as companies lost interest in its proposal due to several reasons and an upturn in the industry cycle. However, the DRAM cycle seemed to play out itself rather quickly as companies once again invested heavily to remain competitive. The investment and still fragile industry led to increased supply, lower prices, and the return of financial difficulties. All the while, the leading players in the industry, mainly Koreans, keep gaining market share and increasing their technological gap versus industry peers. Finally Elpida of Japan apparently prepares another attempt at consolidating the industry.
The alliances in the industry constantly change, face challenges, and adapt to each twist and turn in the industry. Despite deepening alliances the fate of Taiwanese DRAM companies appear very bleak. Tough choices will have to be made in the near future as the market seems to head for another down turn while Elpida apparently prepares to make new consolidation/alliance offers. Should the Taiwanese DRAM companies attempt an industry exit such as the one executed by Winbond, should they further deepen their alliances, or just go it alone?
1 The DRAM Industry…………………………………..…….……3
1.1 The Typical DRAM Industry Cycle ……………………....4
1.2 The Windows Vista Cycle ………………………………...5
2 Taiwan DRAM and Past Unsustainable Trends………..…..……..8
2.1 State of Taiwanese DRAM Makers after Windows Vista…..10
3 The Companies………………………………….……………….10
3.1 Samsung ……………………………….………...……….11
3.2 Hynix……………………………………………………….12
3.3 Elpida……………………………………………………….13
3.4 Rexchip……………………………………………………..14
3.5 Powerchip…………………………………………………..14
3.6 Micron……………………………………………………...15
3.7 Inotera Memories…………………………………………..15
3.8 Nanya Tech………………………………………………...16
3.9 Promos……………………………………………………..16
3.10 Qimonda…………………………………………………...16
3.11 Winbond…………………………………….……………..17
4. Enter TMC: The Government’s attempt at consolidation…........18
5. The Windows Vista Cycle Recovery……………………………21
6. The Geometry Migration Race…………………………….........23
6.1 Elpida, Rexchip and Powerchip Technology migration…...25
6.2 Micron and Inotera Technology Migration………….…..…25
6.3 Nanya Tech and Technology Migration………………........26
6.4 Powerchip and Technology Migration………………..……26
6.5 ProMos and Technology Migration………………………...27
7. DRAM Slowdown of 2H10………………..…………………..27
7.1 Financial difficulties haunt Taiwan players once again…....30
7.2 Samsung Further Expands Lead……………………………30
8. Elpida’s Bold Ambitions……………………………………...33
9. Discussion Questions…………………………………………34
10. Apendix…………………………………………………...…..35
11. References………………………………………………...…..39
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Signs of Hope for Micron Technology [Online]. Available FTP:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/06/technology/business-
computing/06micron.html.
2. Unanimous. (2010, October 7). Elpida considers buying stakes in
Taiwanese rivals [Online].
http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/biz/archives/2010/10/08/200348
4804/1.
3. Anonimous. (2009, May 31). Annual Report 2009 [Online]. Available
FTP: http://www.elpida.com/en/ir/pdf/AR2009E.pdf.
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Yoshikawa, Ryotaro Hayashi. Global DRAM: Sustainable Upturn
Heading into 2010. Morgan Stanley. Asia Pacific. 21, Sept. 2009.
5. Chen, Ryan Interview conducted by the case author on March 28th,
2011.
6. Frank A.Y. Wang. Jerry Su . “Taiwan DRAM/IDM industry report.”
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Taiwan Limited. 10, March. 2009.
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market dead in the water. [Online]. Available FTP:
http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/biz/archives/2009/10/26/2003456895.
8. Frank A.Y. Wang. ProMOS/Elpida Alliance. Morgan Stanley Research.
Asia, Pacific. 8, December, 2009.
9. Jessie Shen. 2011, January 5. Samsung develops DDR4 module built
using 30nm technology [Online]. Available FTP:
http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20110104PR207.html.
10. JJ Park. Hynnix Semiconductor: Good 3Q10 but only “not bad” going
forward; not much excitement for a while. J.P,Morgan. Asia Pacific
Equity Research. Seoul, ROK. 29, October. 2010.
11. Andrew Ross Sorkin. (2008, December 8). Hynix Semiconductor Works
to Raise Cash. [Online]. Available FTP:
http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2008/12/08/skoreas-hynix-semiconductor-
working-to-raise-cash/.
12. Anonimous. Hynix 2006 Annual Report. Hynix. Seoul, ROK. 2006.
13. Ken Liu. (2009, July 7). ProMOS Ends Technology Licensing
Agreement With Hynix [Online]. Available FTP:
http://news.cens.com/cens/html/en/news/news_inner_28626.html.
14. William Wang. Elpida’s TDR Listing. Fubon Research. Taipei, Taiwan.
25, February 25, 2011.
15. Hiroko Tabuchi. (2009, June 30). Japan Offers $1.7 Billion Bailout for
Chip Maker [Online]. Available FTP: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/01/business/global/01chip.html?_r=1&scp=1&sq=Japan%20Offers%20%241.7%20Billion%20Bailout%20for%20Chip%20Maker&st=cse.
16. Yoshiharu Izumi. Elpida Memory (6665): Raising Our Earnings
Forecasts and Price Target Based on Taiwan Visit and Technology
Briefing. J.P.Morgan. Tokyo, Japan. 15, March. 2010.
17. Jessie Shen. (2011, March 4). Rexchip to allocate NT$3.6 billion for
process transition [Online]. Available FTP:
http://www.jihsin.com/news/electronic_components_news/rexchip-to-
sallocate-nt3-6-billion-for-process-transition.html.
18. Anonimous. (2011). Corporate Profile [Online]. Available FTP:
http://www.micron.com/about/profile.html.
19. Anonimous. (2008, November 26). Formosa to Hand Over Cash for
Micron Venture [Online]. Available FTP:
http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2008/11/26/formosa-to-hand-over-cash-for-
micron-venture/.
20. Simon Dong-je Woo, Jennifer Kim, Daniel Heyler. Execution concern
remains; low margin continues. Bank of America Merril Lynch. Taipei,
Taiwan. 21, October. 2010.
21. Simon Dong-je Woo, Jennifer Kim, Daniel Heyler. Hard to find new
catalysts; negative ROE continues. Bank of America Merril Lynch.
Taipei, Taiwan. 21, October. 2010.
22. Ryan Chen. Taiwan Memory: Reentering the profit zone.SinoPac
Securities. Taipei, Taiwan. 13, May. 2010.
23. Ryan Chen. Nanya Technology: 2Q10 earnings call takeaways. SinoPac
Securities. Taipei, Taiwan. 26, July. 2010.
24. Anonimous. 2006 Annual Report. Powerchip Semiconductor. Taipei,
Taiwan. 31, March. 2007.
25. George Frey. (2009, January 23). Germany's Qimonda Declares
Bankruptcy. [Online]. Available FTP:
http://www.manufacturing.net/News-Germany-Qimonda-Declares-
Bankruptcy-012309.aspx?menuid=268.
26. Ryan Chen. Winbond: A specialty memory powerhouse in the making. .
SinoPac Securities. Taipei, Taiwan. 27, May. 2010.
27. Anonymous. (2009, February 20). Taiwan plans new memory company.
[Online]. Available FTP:
http://www.theinquirer.net/inquirer/news/1051087/taiwan-plans-
memory-company.
28. Anonymous. (2009, April 01). Taiwan's new DRAM outfit TMC ties
up with Japan's Elpida. [Online]. Available FTP: http://www.domain-
b.com/industry/Semiconductors/20090401_elpida_memory.html.
29. Anonymous. (2009, March 5). Taiwan set to overhaul DRAM chip
sector. [Online]. Available FTP:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/05/technology/05iht- chip.3.20620556.html.
30. Brooke Crothers. (2009, March 5). Report: Taiwan to overhaul memory
chip industry [Online]. Available FTP: http://news.cnet.com/8301- 13924_3-10190255-64.html.
31. Paul Lilly (2009, April 9). Taiwan Memory Company Loses Two Major Backers. Available FTP: http://www.maximumpc.com/article/news/taiwan_memory_company_loses_two_major_backers.
32. Marcos Torres. Taiwan Afternoon Commentary: TAIEX Gains to
Highest Level since June 2008. SinoPac Securities. Taipei, Taiwan. 18,
September. 2009.
33. Sophie Chuang. Research comment. SinoPac Securities. Taipei, Taiwan.
17, September. 2009.
34. Jessie Shen. (2010, August 23). Samsung expands lead in 2Q10 DRAM
market, says iSuppli [Online]. Available FTP:
http://www.newzfor.me/news/80098018.aspx .
35. Lisa Wang. (2010, April 17). ProMOS selling 12-inch fab to Macronix
[Online]. Available FTP:
http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/biz/archives/2010/04/17/2003470793.
36. Lisa Wang. (2010, September 04). Revenue rises at Nanya Tech
[Online]. Available FTP:
http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/biz/archives/2010/09/04/2003482072.
37. Frank A.Y. Wang. Jerry Su. Taiwan DRAM: Elpida and Rexchip to
Jointly Set Up R&D Center in Taiwan. Morgan Stanley Research. Taipei,
Taiwan. 6, January. 2010.
38. Andy Hsu. DRAM sector quarterly update: Waiting for strong IT
demand to come. Fubon Research. Taipei, Taiwan. 2, July 2010.
39. Anonimous. (2010, August 21). Powerchip to increase capital
expenditure 40% [Online]. Available FTP:
http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/biz/archives/2010/08/21/2003480928.
40. Ryan Chen. Softex Taipei spring computer show takeaways. SinoPac
Securities. Taipei, Taiwan. 12, April 2010.
41. Josephine Lien, Jessie Shen (2010, November 3). Samsung widens gap
with fellow DRAM makers. [Online]. Available FTP:
http://www.jihsin.com/news/electrical_equipment_news/samsung- widens-gap-with-fellow-dram-makers.html.
42. Lisa Wang (2011, January 13). TSMC to purchase factory and
offices from Powerchip. [Online]. Available FTP:
http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/biz/archives/2011/01/13/2003493337.
43. Jessie Shen. (2010, December 28). Nanya gains additional loans from
affiliates, says paper [Online]. Available FTP:
http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20101228PB201.html.
44. Josephine Lien, Jessie Shen. (2011, January 3). Powerchip says unable
to pay Rexchip bills. [Online]. Available FTP:
http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20110103PD206.html.
45. Young Park, Justin Byun, Kayla Mu. Semiconductor Industry: Snowball
begins to roll. Woori Investment & Securities. Seoul, ROK. 16
November, 2010.
46. Josephine Lien. (2010, October 12). Elpida's plan to combat
competition from Samsung. Available FTP:
http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20101008PD201.html.
47. Josephine Lien, Jessie Shen. (2010, December 27). ProMOS to make
own-brand DRAM using Elpida design. [Online]. Available FTP:
http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20101227PD203.html.
48. Josephine Lien, Jessie Shen. (2010, December 16). ProMOS likely able
to produce own-brand DRAM using Elpida's technology. [Online].
Available FTP: http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20101115PD221.html.
