在過去眾多破產預測研究中，多半致力於找尋將企業劃分為破產及非破產兩大類之分界點，鮮有將破產過程作階段式劃分之研究。而企業破產或財務重整皆意味著社會資源之誤置，其影響層面與企業的規模大小成正比，尤以公開發行股票之公司為甚。因此，本文以上市公司為研究母體，試圖發展描述企業破產過程之模型。

本文依據 Beaver(1966)、 Altman(1968)、 Ohlson(1980)、Lau(1987)等模型及其它實證文獻形成研究假設，分別以民國七十四年及七十五年破產公司及非破產公司為原始樣本及期後樣本，採用因素分析、區別分析和選輯機率模型進行分析，得到以下結論：

一、企業失敗為一階段性過程。

二、失敗過程可以用財務比率有效解釋，且每一階段具重大顯著性財務因素不盡相同。

三、針對發生財務困難前四個年度以因素分析法選出主要財務因素，其中因素負荷量較大者為股東權益報酬率、流動資產百分比、負債比率、應收帳款週轉率、銷貨成長率、收益率、總資產報酬率等。

四、就企業失敗過程而言，在財務困難前三、四年大部分的公司可從負債比率的惡化看出端倪，而在財務困難前一、二年則由總資產報酬率的下降，顯現企業已步入存亡關頭。

五、以期後樣本對區別函數的穩定性進行驗證，結果顯示該模式的預測能力在失敗前三個年度均達82%以上。

Most of researches about bankruptcy prediction seek for the cut-off point to classify the corporations into two groups: bankruptcy or nonbankruptcy; only few consider that bankruptcy is a gradual process and build a model to describe it. On the other hand, bankruptcy or financial restructure means the misuse of social resources. The impact of this misuse depends on the scale of the corporation The larger the corporation scale is, the greater the impact is, especially those corporations whose stocks traded publicly. This study intends to build a multiple-stage model to desribe the bankruptcy process of those corporations.

This study set research hypothesises based on models of Beave (1996), Altman (1968), Ohlson (1980), Lau(1987) and other empirical studies and use factor analysis, discriminant analysis and logistic model to analysis the data of original and holdout samples. The conclusions of this study are shown as follwing:

1. Indeed, bankruptcy is a gradual process.

2. The process of bankruptcy can be effectively described by financial ratios and very stage of the process doesn't have the same significant financial factors.

3. Analysis financial data one to four years prior to bankruptcy by factor analysis, this study draw seven factors with largest factor loading: turn-over on equity, percentage of currcnt assets, debt to equity, trun-over on account receivable, percentage of sales growth, rate of gross profit and turn-over on total assets.

4. In the process of bankruptcy, debt to equity raises rapidly three to four years before bankruptcy and trrn-over on total assets slips down between one to two years before bankruptcy.

5. Validating the stability of the model with holdout samples appears that the correct prediction percentage of the discriminant model is 82%in average between one to three years before bankruptcy.

一、中文書籍及期刊
1.王光華，財務報表資料預知企業財務困難能力之探討，會計師會訊民國八十一年十、十一月。
2. 公司預警蓄勢待發━政府借重會計師發揮整頓企業功能，民國七十七年十一月，第3期會計師月刊。
3. 台灣景氣指標，第二十卷十九期，行政院經濟建設委員會經濟研究處。
4. 洪惠玲，營業現金流量對企業失敗預測能力之研究，國立政治大學會計研究所未出版碩士論文，民國七十年六月。
5. 洪榮華，不景氣時期我國經營不良上市公司財務比率之探討，國立中山大學企業管理研究所未出版碩士論文，民國七十三年，六月。
6 陳明賢，財務危機預測之計量分析研究，國立台灣大學商學研究所未出版碩士論文，民國七十五年六月。
7. 張德偉，探索企業失敗的先兆，國立中興大學企業管理研究所未出版碩士論文，國七十五年六月民。
8. 陳肇榮，運用財務比率預測企業財務危機之實証研究，國立政治大學企業管理研究所末出版博士論文，民國七十二年六月。
9. 陳蘊如，財務危機預警制度之研究，國立政治大學會計研究所未出版碩士論文，民國八十年六月。
10. 葉金成，我國股票上市優良與否不優良企業財務特性之研究，國立政治大學企業管理研究所未出版碩士論文，民國六十七年六月。
11. 彭昭英，SAS與統計分析，第三版，格致圖書有限公司，民國七十九年。
12. 楊巨昌，財務危機公司財務屬性探討及危機預測模式的建立，東海大學企業管理研究所未出版碩士論文，民國七十五年六月。
13. 潘玉葉，台灣股票上市公司財務危機預警分析，淡江大學管理科學研究所博士論文，民國七十九年五月。
14. 劉建和，財務危機診斷的理論探討與實証研究，台灣大學商學研究所未出版碩上論文，民國八一年七月。
15. 談上市公司預警制度，會計研究月刊第58 期，民國七十九年六月。
16. 賴世權，企業正常或具失敗危機之關鍵性財務指標比較分析研究，國立中興大學企業管理研究所未出版碩士論文，民國七十八年元月。

二、英文書籍及期刊
1.A1tman, Edward I, " Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis and the Prediction of Corporate Bankruptcy," The Journal of Finance (September 1968 ) ,pp.589-609.
2 _______ , "Capitalization of Lease and the Predictability of Financial Ratios : A Comment," Accounting Review(April 1976) ,pp.408-412.
3.Altman, Edward I, Robert G. Haldman and Paul Narayanan " Zata Analysis - A New Model to Identify Bankruptcy Risk of Corporation ," Journal of banking and finance, (1977), pp.29-54.
4 Altman, Edward I., "Corporate Financial Distress: A Complete Guide to Predicting, Avoiding and Dealing with Bankruptcy," John Wiley & Sons, Inc.(1983)
5 ________ , "The Success Fail Prediction Model: An Internal Survey," Journal of Banking and Finance, (1984), pp.171-198.
6 ________ , " The Prediction of Bankruptcy: A Discriminant Analysis," Garland Publishing, Inc.(1988)
7. ________ " Bankruptcy and Distress Restructure," N.Y.U. Salomon Center. (1993)
8.Baldwin, Jane and G. William Glezen," Bankruptcy Prediction Using Quarterly Financial Statement Data," Journal of Accounting ,Auditing & Finance, (1983), pp.269-285.
9.Bernstein, Leopold A. " Financial Statement Analysis: Theory, Application, and Interpretation," third Edition, Richard D. Irwin, Inc.,1983.
10.Beaver, William H., " Financial Ratios as Predictors of Failure," Empirical Research In Accounting : Selected Study. Supplement to Journal 0 f Accounting Research
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11.Blum, Marc, " Failing Company Discriminant Analysis," Journal of Accounting Research ( Spring 1974 ) , pp.1-25.
12.Easterbrook, Frank H., " Is Corporate Bankruptcy Efficient? Journal of Financial Economics, (1990), pp.411-417 .
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14 Elam, R ick 11 The Effect of Lease Data on the Prediction Ability of Financial Ratios,1I The Accounting Review, (January 1975), pp.25-43.
15.Fitz, Patrick Paul J., " A Comparison of Success Industrial Enterprises with Those of Fail Firms," Certified Public Accountant, (October 1932), pp. 598 -605 .
16. Folke, Roy A., "Financial Ratios Become of Age," Journal of Accountancy, (September 1937), pp .209-210 .
17 .Gentry, J.A., Paul , Newbold, and David, T. Whitford," Classifying Bankrupt Firms with Fund Flow Components," Journal of Accounting Research (Spring), pp 146-160.
18 . _______ , " Prediction Bankruptcy : If Cash Flow' s not the Bottom Line, What Is ? " Financial Analysts Journal , (Sep/Oct 1985), pp.477-56.
19. Horriga, J. O., " A Short Story of Financial Ratios Analysis," Journal of Accounting Research, (1968), pp.558-568.
20. Judge, George G. et. al. " Introduction to the Theory and Practices of Economics," John Wi1ey & Sons , Inc. (1982)
21. Keasey, K. And R. \Vatson, " Non-Financial Symptoms and the Prediction of Small Company Failure: A Test of Argenti's Hypotheses," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, (Autumn 1987), pp.335-354.
22.Kelly, Dawn and Terry, 1. Amburgey, "Organization Inertia Momentum a Dynamic Model of Strategic Change," Academy of Management Journal, Vo1.34 (1991), pp.591-612.
23.Koh, Hian Chye, "The Sensitivity of Optimal Cut-Off Point to Misclassification Costs of Type T and Type TT Error in the
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24. Laitine, E . K. " Financial Ratios and Different Failure Process," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, (September 1991), pp .649-673.
25.Lane, Sarah J. and Martha Schary, " Understanding the Business Failure Rate," Western Economic Association International. (1990)
26.Lau, Amy Ring Ling "A Five-State Financial Distress Prediction Model," Journal of Accounting Research, (Spring 1987): pp.127-138.
27.Lee, Mark I., 11 Z-Sore and Recent Events : Do They Shed Any Light? 11 Management Accounting, (January 1991), pp.44-48.
28. ________ , " Assessment of Performance Ranking as An Indicator of Future Survival," Management Accounting,(June 1991),
pp.44-49.
29. ________ , 11 Evaluating the Roberson Contribution to Bankruptcy Theory," Management Accounting, (January 1993), pp.59-61.
30 .Lev, Baruch, " Financial Failure and Informational Decomposition Measure", Expanding Perspectives in Contemporary Accounting, pp . 102-111.
31.Libby, Robert, 11 Accounting Ratios and the Prediction of Failure: Some Behavioral Evidence," Journal of Accounting Research, (spring 1975), pp.150-161.
32.Mearns, Albert, "A Test for Argeti's Failure Model, "Management Accounting, (June 1991), pp.40-42.
33.Mensah, Yaw M., " An Examination of the Stationarity of Multivariate Bankruptcy Prediction Model: A Methodological Study," Journal of Accounting Research (Spring 1983) : pp.380-395.
34.Merwin, Charles L., " Financial Small Corporations in Five Manufacturing Industries : 1926-1936, " National Bureau of Economic Research. (1942)
35.0hlson, James A., "Financial Ratios and the Probabilitic Prediction of Bankruptcy," Journal of Accounting Research (Spring 1980): pp.l09 -131.
36.Pinches, G.E., K.E. Mingo and J.E. Caruthers," The Stability of Financial Patterns in Industrial Organizations, " Journal of Finance", Vo1.28, (1973), pp.389-396.
37.Platt, Harlan & Marjorie, B. Platt, " Development of a Class of Stable Predictive Variables: the Case of Bankruptcy Prediction" Journal of Business Finance & Accounting (Spring 1990), pp.31-51.
38. ________ , "A Note on the Use of Industry-Relative Ratios in Bankruptcy Prediction, " Journal of Banking and Finance, (1991), pp.1l83-1194.
39.Robertson, John and Roger, Mills," The Use and Abuse of Corporate Prediction Model," Management Accounting, (1991), pp.20-22.
40.Smith, Raymond F., and Arthur, H. Winkor, "Change in Financial Structure of Unsuccessful Industrial Corporations, "University of Illinois, Bureau of Business Research, Bulletin NO.51. (1935)
41.Zmijewski, Mark "Methodological Issues Related to the Estimation of Financial Distress Prediction Models," Supplement to Journal of Accounting Research,(1984),pp.59-82.