| 研究生: |
李承儒 |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱: |
以實現波動率估計投資組合風險值 Value at Risk of Portfolio with Realized Volatility |
| 指導教授: | 林信助 |
| 學位類別: |
碩士
Master |
| 系所名稱: |
商學院 - 國際經營與貿易學系 Department of International Business |
| 論文出版年: | 2006 |
| 畢業學年度: | 94 |
| 語文別: | 中文 |
| 論文頁數: | 48 |
| 中文關鍵詞: | 風險值 、多變量GARCH模型 、實現波動率 |
| 外文關鍵詞: | value at risk, multivariate garch, realized volatility |
| 相關次數: | 點閱:143 下載:0 |
| 分享至: |
| 查詢本校圖書館目錄 查詢臺灣博碩士論文知識加值系統 勘誤回報 |
利用風險值作為投資組合的風險管理工具,必須考慮金融資產報酬率通常具有厚尾、高峰、波動叢聚以及資產間訊息與波動性的變化也會交互影響等現象;因此實證上通常以多變量GARCH模型作為估計投資組合變異數矩陣的方法。然而多變量GARCH模型卻存在有維度上的詛咒,當投資組合包含資產數增加時會加重參數估計上的困難度。另一種估計波動率的方法,稱為實現波動率,能比多變量GARCH模型更簡易地處理投資組合高維度的問題。本文即以實現波動率、BEKK多變量GARCH模型與CCC模型,並以中鋼、台積電、國泰金為研究對象,比較三種方法估計風險值的表現。而實證結果得到利用實現波動率確實適合應用在風險值的估計上,且在表現上有略勝一籌的現象。
1 前言
2 風險值、多變量GARCH模型與實現波動率
2.1 風險值觀念介紹與計算方法
2.1.1 變異數-共變異數法
2.1.2 歷史模擬法
2.1.3 蒙地卡羅模擬法
2.2 多變量GARCH模型
2.2.1 CCC模型
2.2.2 BEKK模型
2.3 實現波動率
3 實證研究
3.1 檢定方法
3.1.1 二項分配檢定
3.1.2 概似比檢定
3.1.3 條件涵蓋檢定法
3.2 資料來源
3.3 實證結果
3.3.1 實現波動率
3.3.2 CCC與BEKK模型
3.3.3 風險值回顧測試
4 結論與建議
4.1 結論
4.2 研究限制與未來研究方向
參考文獻
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