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研究生: 楊尚穎
Yang, Shang Yin
論文名稱: 廣義財務模型於保險公司資產配置與破產成本之研究
Asset allocation and bankruptcy problems of insurance company in general financial models
指導教授: 張士傑
Chang, Shih Chieh
學位類別: 博士
Doctor
系所名稱: 商學院 - 風險管理與保險學系
Department of Risk Management and Insurance
論文出版年: 2011
畢業學年度: 99
語文別: 英文
論文頁數: 139
中文關鍵詞: 可預測性動態學習最低保證巴黎式選擇權濾波器安定基金
外文關鍵詞: predictability, dynamic learning, minimal guarantee, Parisian option, filtering, guaranty fund
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  • 這篇論文研究跨國投資與監理寬容下保險公司之破產問題,同時論文的相關內容簡述於論文第一章中。第二章研究考慮匯率可預測下對跨國投資人資產配置的影響,結果顯示匯率可預測性能有效的提升投資人期末財富。第三章考慮監理寬容下保險公司的破產問題,在美國破產保護法第11章的架構下,保險人與被保險人之權利義務關係,可利用巴黎式選擇權描述,同時建構保證給付指標來衡量不同監理干預準則,數值結果顯示過於寬鬆的監理準則將導致被保險人的財務損失。第四章探討監理寬容下保險安定基金保險費率問題,依照美國破產保護法第11章的架構,安定基金保費可簡化成2個巴黎式選擇權,結果顯示,當前台灣保險單定基金費率有偏低的情形,建議主管機關訂定安定基金費率時需更加謹慎小心。


    This thesis focuses on the international portfolio selection and the bankruptcy cost of the insurance company under regulatory forbearance. The main theme of this thesis is outlined in chapter 1, which also serves as an introduction to the three papers (appearing here as Chapter 2, Chapter 3 and Chapter 4) collected in this thesis.
    In the theme of the international portfolio selection, Chapter 2 investigates the investment behaviors when learning effect is considered. According to the exchange rate predictability, the investor updates his information and adjusts his portfolio allocation. Finally, the numerical results show that the learning mechanism significantly improves the terminal wealth.
    In the theme of the regulatory forbearance, Chapter 3 provides an illustration of the impact on the ruin cost due to regulatory forbearance. The concept of the U.S. Chapter 11 bankruptcy code is employed to determine regulatory forbearance. Throughout the framework of Parisian option, a quantitative index of regulatory forbearance called Guarantee Benefit Index (GBI) is developed. The GBI is used to evaluate the different supervisory intervention criteria i.e., relative and absolute intervention criteria. Finally, numerical analysis is performed to illustrate the influence of different financial factors and the intervention criteria.
    Another important issue in bankruptcy problem is discussed in Chapter 4, i.e., the cost of insurance guaranty fund. It is important to determine the cost of bankruptcy when the insolvent insurance company is took over by the government. Under the U.S. Chapter 11 bankruptcy code, the cost of guaranty fund can be determined through Parisian options. Results show that the current premium rates of Taiwan insurance guarantee fund are far from risk sensitive. Hence the results suggest the government should more prudent to face the bankruptcy problem in insurance industry.

    Abstract 1
    Chapter 1 Introduction 3
    Chapter 2 Exchange Rate Predictability in International Portfolio Selection 8
    2.1. Introduction 8
    2.2. The Market Framework and the Model 14
    2.3. Learning Process 18
    2.4. The Martingale Method 23
    2.5. The Optimization Program 24
    2.6. A Simplified Example Revisited 27
    2.7. Numerical illustration 37
    2.8. Conclusion 53
    Chapter 3 Too Big to Fail or Too Small to Save: Regulatory Forbearance and Guarantee Benefits in Taiwan’s Life Insurance Market 56
    3.1. Introduction 56
    3.2. Contract specification and Guarantee Benefit Index 61
    3.2.1. Contract specification 61
    3.2.2. Market environment 64
    3.2.3. Quantitative index of regulatory forbearance 66
    3.3. Relative and Absolute intervention criterion 70
    3.4. Numerical analysis 75
    3.4.3. Scenario analysis 78
    3.4.3.1. The effects of riskless interest rate and minimal guarantee interest rate 78
    3.4.3.2. The effect of asset volatility 80
    3.4.3.3. The effect of different intervention criterion 81
    3.5. Conclusion 82
    Chapter 4 An Analysis of the Bankruptcy Cost of Insurance Guaranty Fund under Regulatory Forbearance 84
    4.1. Introduction and Motivation 84
    4.1.1. Legacy Issues 87
    4.1.2. Government Intervention and Forbearance 88
    4.1.3. Literature Review of Bankruptcy Problem 89
    4.2. The Model 94
    4.2.1. Market Framework 94
    4.2.2. Cost of Insurance Guaranty Fund 97
    4.3. Numerical analysis 101
    4.4. Conclusion 115
    Appendix A 117
    Appendix A.1 117
    Appendix A.2 Parameter values used in numerical analysis 120
    Appendix A.3 Glossary of the notations 121
    Appendix B 124
    Appendix C: cost of bankruptcy of Guaranty fund 129
    Reference 131

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