臺灣住宅市場自 2020 年起持續起漲，政府與此同時部署四類政策工具：一為選擇性信用管制措施，二為房地合一稅 2.0，三為平均地權條例，四為新青年安心成家貸款方案（新青安），然而房價非但未見抑制，反於 2024 年創歷史新高。本研究以 2008 年第一季至 2025 年第四季臺灣季頻資料為樣本，採用結構向量自迴歸（SVAR）架構，並以貝氏方法估計（BSVAR），搭配 Minnesota 先驗與 Cholesky 短期限制。有別於既有文獻普遍採用政策生效日的外生虛擬變數，本研究改以連續強度比例代理變數設定為內生變數，藉此捕捉政策與市場行為之間的雙向回饋，精確刻畫政策力道隨時間漸進發酵之軌跡而非階躍式瞬間全額生效，並使四項政策得以在同一平台上進行脈衝反應與變異數分解之平行比較，此為外生虛擬變數規格所無法支援之分析。
實證結果發現政策利率對房價之直接效果統計上不顯著，確認貨幣政策主要透過間接信用管道傳遞。選擇性信用管制透過金融加速器機制對房價發揮抑制效果，惟須歷經中長期方能充分顯現。預售市場活動為短中期最強勁的外部驅動力，貢獻最高達 21.72%。新青安之解釋力攀升至 8.80%,確認補貼於供給彈性不足市場中逐步資本化。房地合一稅 2.0 則呈現先推升後抑制的雙重動態。反事實模擬顯示，本研究以連續變數捕捉政策力道之漸進累積，虛擬變數對照模型雖方向一致，缺口幅度卻異常的大，高達 10 至 30 倍且呈現斷崖式跳動，印證連續變數設計之方法論優勢。綜合以上，臺灣房價之持續上漲反映多重政策疊加下的結構性錯位，而非單一工具之完全失效,本研究為政府設計協調性房市政策提供系統性的量化實證基礎。

Taiwan's residential market has appreciated persistently since 2020 despite the government's concurrent deployment of four policy instruments — selective credit controls, House and Land Transactions Income Tax 2.0 (HLTT 2.0), the Equalization of Land Rights Act, and the New Youth Housing Loan Program — with prices reaching historic highs in 2024. Using quarterly Taiwan data from 2008Q1–2025Q4, this study employs a Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) framework, estimated via Bayesian methods (BSVAR) with a Minnesota prior and Cholesky short-run restrictions. Departing from the exogenous 0/1 dummies used in prior literature, this study instead constructs continuous policy-intensity proxies as endogenous variables, capturing two-way feedback between policy and market behavior, reflecting the gradual, time-varying intensity of enforcement rather than a step function, and enabling impulse response and variance decomposition comparisons across all four policies on a common footing unattainable under a dummy specification.
The empirical findings show that the policy rate's direct effect on house prices is statistically insignificant, confirming transmission operates mainly through indirect credit channels. Selective credit controls dampen house prices through the financial accelerator mechanism, materializing only in the medium- to long run. Presale market activity is the strongest short- to medium-run driver, contributing up to 21.72%. The Youth Loan subsidy's contribution rises to 8.80%, confirming progressive capitalization under inelastic supply. HLTT 2.0 shows an initial price-supporting phase followed by a dampening phase. Counterfactual simulations show that the continuous-variable design captures the gradual accumulation of policy intensity, whereas a dummy-variable benchmark yields directionally consistent but 10–30 times larger, cliff-edge magnitudes, confirming the methodological advantage of the continuous specification. These findings indicate that Taiwan's sustained price appreciation reflects structural misalignment across overlapping policy instruments rather than the failure of any single tool, offering a systematic empirical foundation for coordinated housing policy design.

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