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研究生: 吳米琪
Wu, Mi Chi
論文名稱: 簽訂自由貿易協定之貿易與福利效果
Estimates of the Trade and Welfare Effects of FTA
指導教授: 王信實
Wang, Shinn Shyr
李浩仲
Li, Hao Chung
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 社會科學學院 - 經濟學系
Department of Economics
論文出版年: 2015
畢業學年度: 103
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 50
中文關鍵詞: 自由貿易協定世界貿易組織多部門模型投入產出連結中間財
外文關鍵詞: FTA, WTO, Multi-sector model, Sectoral linkages, Intermediate goods
相關次數: 點閱:201下載:17
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  • 近年來雙邊甚或區域間簽訂自由貿易協定之風盛行,本文欲探討其影響。參考Caliendo and Parro(2015)的方法,以考慮部門異質性、投入產出連結以及中間財貿易之模型,計算1995-2013年間三個模型的福利效果。旨在分別檢視1995-2005年間WTO成立十年之影響、2005-2013年間全球120份自由貿易協定生效之效果,以及韓國此段期間內簽訂自由貿易協定之成果。本文結果顯示,WTO於1995年成立至其後10年間,確實為會員國帶來正面影響,總體而言,多數國家福利效果變動率為正。到了2005-2013年,全球有120份區域貿易協定生效,亦提升多數國家的福利,然成長幅度不如1995-2005來的顯著。惟韓國受惠於其簽訂自由貿易協定的成效,福利成長得與先前維持相近水準。此外,透過不同模型間的比較,本文發現各模型間的福利效果有明顯差異,顯示現今複雜的國際分工鏈下,完善考量部門間的互動因素實為衡量國際貿易效果的重要課題。


    1 緒論 1
    1.1 研究動機與方法 1
    1.2 韓國與台灣簽訂自由貿易協定之情形 3
    2 文獻回顧 5
    3 模型架構與方法 7
    3.1 模型 7
    3.2 稅率改變下的福利效果 13
    3.3 將資料帶入模型 14
    3.4 模型解法 15
    4 貿易彈性 15
    5 實證結果 18
    5.1 資料來源與處理方法 18
    5.2 1995-2005年間全球稅率改變之貿易與福利效果:模型一 20
    5.3 2005-2013年間全球稅率改變之貿易與福利效果:模型二、三 25
    5.4 考慮不同因素之模型比較 33
    6 結論 35
    參考文獻 37
    附錄 40

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