一般而言，壽險公司會在保險契約生效前就支付保單相關之費用，例如核保與承保之成本，並且公司會預期未來保險期間內可以填補上述費用；但若保戶於保險期間內早期解約或是解約情形嚴重，將使壽險公司難達到損益兩平之目標而招受損失，影響公司預期盈收，進而增加公司資金調度上之困難。因此，對於長期穩健經營之壽險公司而言，瞭解各保險解約率變動情形對於公司之財務規劃相當重要，以期降低危害公司之風險。
本文期望藉由台灣保險事業發展中心之實證資料蒐集與相關分析，探討影響台灣壽險業生死合險及不還本終身壽險解約之因素以及其解約率之特性，進而建立與利差及保單年度相關之解約率模型，以期能準確地估計台灣壽險公司生死合險解約率與不還本終身壽險解約率。除此之外，本研究將所建構之解約率模型應用於公司未來現金流量分析，以蒙地卡羅法模擬各險種保單準備金之分配，瞭解各種解約率假設對於公司未來現金流量之影響，進而瞭解解約率參數假設對於準備金風險之評估扮演重要角色。

In general, the life insurance companies would pay the expenses with respect to the insurance policies before the validity of insurance contracts such as underwriting and insuring costs. If the policyholders are early-surrendered or over-surrendered during the policy period, then it will make the insurance companies hard to achieve their break-even goal and result in affecting the companies’ surplus as well as management of their capital. Thus, for the long-term and stable life insurance companies, it is extremely important to understand the changes of lapse rate in order to reduce the financial risk damage before making any financial decisions.
In this article, we expect to focus on the causes and the features of lapse rate changes by collecting and analyzing the empirical data of endowment and whole life insurance in Taiwan from Taiwan Insurance Institute. Based on our analysis, we could build the lapse rate model concerning the relation between the lapse rate and interest rate difference or policy year for estimating the endowment lapse rate and whole life insurance lapse rate accurately. Moreover, we apply the lapse rate model to company’s cash flow analysis. We employ the Monte Carlo simulation to simulate the policy reserve distribution, and we find out that the lapse rate assumption plays an important role in the policy reserve evaluation.

英文文獻:
1.Babbel, D., and C. Merrill, 1998. Economic Valuation Models for Insurers, North American Actuarial Journal, 2, 1-17.
2.Babbel, D., J. Gold, and C. Merrill, 2002, Fair Value of Liabilities:The Financial Economics Perspective, North American Actuarial Journal, 6, 12-27.
3.Bluhm,W.F., 1982,Cumulative Antiselection Theory, Transactions of the Society of Actuaries 34:215-232;Discussion:233-246
4.Bowers, N.L., Gerber, H.U., Hickman, J.C., Jones, D.A., Nesbitt, C.J., 1986, Actuarial Mathematics, Society of Actuaries, Itasca, IL.
5.Bowers, N.L., Gerber, H.U., Hickman, J.C., Jones, D.A., Nesbitt, C.J., 1997, Actuarial Mathematics, 12th ed, Society of Actuaries, Schaumburg, IL.
6.Carter, P., 1995, United Kingdom-Lapsation and the Policyholder：Buyer Study, Life Insurance Marketing and Research Association.
7.Cox, S. H., P. D. Laporte, S. R. Linney, and L. Lombardi, 1992, Single-Premium Deferred Annuity Persistency Study, Transactions of Society of Actuaries Reports, 281-332.
8.Cummins, J.D., 1975, An Econometric model of The Life Insurance Sector in The U.S. Economy, Lexington Books, Lexington, MA.
9.Ho, C., Muise, N., 2005, U.S. Individual Life Persistency Study, Life Insurance Marketing and Research Association.
10.Kelly, T. H., 1996, Long-Term Ordinary Lapse Survey, Life Insurance Marketing and Research Association.
11.Kim, C., 2005, Modeling Surrender and Lapse Rates with Economic Variables. North American Actuarial Journal 9(3),56-70.
12.Linton, M.A., 1924, Returns Under Agency Constract, Record of the American Institute of Actuaries 13, 283.
13.Moorehead, E.F., 1960, The Construction of Persistency tables, Transactions of the Society of Actuaries 12, 545-563.
14.Outerville, J. Francois, 1990, Whole-life Insurance Lapse Rates and the Emergency Fund Hypothesis. Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 9, 249-255.
15.Papps, P.C.H. 1919, A method of estimating the rate of persistency, Record of the American Institute of Actuaries 8, 13.
16.Pesando, J.E., 1974, The interest sensibility of the flow of funds through life insurance companies: An econometric analysis, Journal of Finance, Sept., 1105-1121
17.Purushotham, M., 2001, U.S. Individual Life Persistency Study, Life Insurance Marketing and Research Association.
18.Purushotham, M., 2005, U.S. Individual Life Persistency Study, Life Insurance Marketing and Research Association.
19.Schott, F.H., 1971, Disintermediation through policy loans at life insurance companies, Journal of Finance 26, June, 719-729
20.Sondergeld, E. T., 1997, Persistency and replacement: A best practices for Taiwan, the Philippines, and Hong Kong, Life Insurance Marketing and Research Association.
21.Tsai, C. , W. Kuo, and W. Chen, 2002, Early Surrender and the Distribution of Policy Reserves, Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 31(3), 429-445.
22.Tsai, C. , W. Kuo, and W. Chen, 2003, An Empirical Study on the Lapse Rate: the Co integration Approach, The Journal of Risk and Insurance, 70(3), 489–508.
23.Tsai, C., W. Kuo, and D. Mi-Hsiu Chiang, 2009, The Distribution of Policy Reserves Considering The Policy-Year Structures of Surrender Rates and Expense Ratios, The Journal of Risk and Insurance, 76(4), 909-931.

中文文獻:
1.詹淑卿，1997，壽險解約率與總體經濟關係之研究，國立政治大學風險管理與保險學研究所碩士論文。
2.陳建勝、林明宏，2003，壽險保單早期失效之預測，風險管理學報，5卷3期，341~361