「青年安心成家購屋優惠貸款方案」自2010年施行以來，為首購族提供最高80%貸款成數、最長40年（含5年寬限期）之優惠房貸，並由政府提供利息補貼（目前合計1.5碼）。截至2026年初，累計撥貸已達約497,400戶、金額2.628兆元，雖有效降低了青年購屋初期負擔，但對財務條件薄弱者而言，長期利率風險與首付款壓力仍為顯著風險，同時優惠方案亦造成銀行逼近放款法定上限，導致放貸趨緊，嚴重影響房市健全。
近年來，台灣在低利率環境與資金寬鬆背景下，房價呈現顯著上升趨勢，且漲幅相對於多數國家更為明顯；住宅交易量則呈現高度波動。為抑制房市過熱與金融風險累積，政府採行多項購屋貸款管制措施（如貸款成數限制），然緊縮與寬鬆政策並行之下，其對房價與交易量之影響效果及動態調整機制，仍缺乏一致性結論。
本文嘗試以2001年第一季至2025 年第四季之房價指數變數及總體經變數資料，運用 ARDL Bounds Test、ECM 模型探究青安貸款對於台灣住宅市場間之長期與短期動態關係及因果關係。研究結果顯示，青安貸款在短期交易量有顯著之影響，並推升房價。但在央行七波的信用管制調控下，對於住宅交易價格有顯著的抑制效果，因此，期望透過本研究對於台灣未來購屋貸款政策及健全房市政策規劃提出建議。

The Youth Housing Loan Subsidy Program (hereafter referred to as the Youth Housing Loan), has been implemented since 2010 to support first-time homebuyers. The program offers preferential mortgage terms, including a maximum loan-to-value (LTV) ratio of 80%, a repayment period of up to 40 years (with a five-year grace period), and government-provided interest subsidies (currently totaling 1.5 percentage points). As of early 2026, the cumulative number of approved loans has reached approximately 497,400 cases, with a total disbursement amount of NT$2.628 trillion. While the program has effectively reduced the initial financial burden for young homebuyers, long-term interest rate risks and down payment pressures remain significant concerns for financially constrained households. Moreover, the preferential scheme has pushed banks closer to their statutory lending limits, resulting in tightened credit conditions and adversely affecting the stability of the housing market.
In recent years, under a low-interest-rate environment and abundant liquidity, housing prices in Taiwan have exhibited a pronounced upward trend, with growth rates exceeding those observed in many other countries. Meanwhile, housing transaction volumes have shown substantial volatility. To curb overheating in the housing market and the accumulation of financial risks, the government has implemented various mortgage-related macroprudential measures, such as LTV ratio restrictions. However, under the coexistence of tightening and easing policies, there remains no consensus regarding their effects on housing prices, transaction volumes, and the underlying dynamic adjustment mechanisms.
This study employs quarterly data on housing price indices and macroeconomic variables in Taiwan from the first quarter of 2001 to the fourth quarter of 2025. The analysis adopts the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bounds Testing approach and the Error Correction Model (ECM) to investigate the long-run and short-run dynamic relationships, as well as causal linkages, between the Youth Housing Loan program and the housing market. The empirical results indicate that the Youth Housing Loan has a significant short-term effect on housing transaction volumes and contributes to rising housing prices. However, under the implementation of seven rounds of credit control measures by the central bank, a significant suppressing effect on housing prices is observed. Based on these findings, this study aims to provide policy implications for future housing loan programs and the development of a sound housing market in Taiwan.

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