大眾運輸系統在都市發展中扮演著關鍵角色，不僅改善交通壅塞，更帶動沿線房價變動與都市空間結構之轉型。臺中市近年推動「臺中都會區大眾捷運系統烏日文心北屯線建設計畫」帶動大眾運輸導向發展（TOD）以及「臺中都會區鐵路高架捷運化計畫」以縫合都市空間，雙軌運輸之並存為區域發展帶來重大影響。然而，過往文獻較少針對同一都會區內，不同軌道運輸型態於施工、通車至營運等各階段進行比較與分析都市空間結構之變遷。本研究以臺中市雙軌運輸沿線為實證範圍，選取2017年、2021年及2024年為時間切點。首先，運用特徵價格模型（HPM）探討全域房價影響因素。其次，結合差異中之差異法（DID）分析不同軌道政策在各時程對周邊房價帶來之淨因果衝擊；最後，透過多尺度地理加權迴歸模型（MGWR）探討不同因素下之空間異質性。
實證結果發現：第一，捷運綠線呈顯著提前資本化現象，營運後期實驗組區域甚至因擁擠外部性使房價漲幅趨緩；臺鐵高架化則隨時間逐漸上漲，展現顯著都市縫合補漲效益。第二，商業群聚效應於捷運沿線新興重劃區之商業機能高度向站區集中且節點效益隨時程強化；臺鐵舊市區商業早已擴散飽和，實驗組與對照組差異相對有限。第三，土地利用多樣性與人口聚集效益具高度空間異質性，於捷運新興發展區呈正向效益；於臺鐵高架化發展飽和區域則為擁擠成本。鄰里設施（如學校）亦隨區域既有社經脈絡呈現正向轉為負向之效益。第四，雙軌共同轉乘站對臺鐵具顯著加乘溢價，捷運綠線則因過度人流影響寧適性而呈折價情形。第五，於捷運新興發展區，人口密度適度聚集補足生活機能並帶動需求對房價為正；於臺鐵飽和區，過高密度伴隨噪音、震動與轉乘人流等負面外部性，反而抑制周邊住宅價格。本研究不僅探討雙軌運輸對房價與空間結構之不同時間歷程與空間異質性，亦可作為未來相關政策因地制宜之參考。

Public transit systems are pivotal to urban development, mitigating congestion while driving property capitalization and spatial restructuring. Recently, Taichung City has implemented the MRT Green Line to foster Transit-Oriented Development (TOD) alongside the Railway Grade Separation Project to promote spatial integration. The coexistence of these dual-rail systems profoundly impacts regional development. However, existing literature lacks dynamic, multi-stage comparisons from construction to operation of different transit typologies within a single metropolitan area, particularly regarding the subsequent urban spatial evolution.
This study empirically examines the dual-rail corridors in Taichung City, anchoring the analysis on three temporal nodes: 2017, 2021, and 2024. First, the Hedonic Price Model (HPM) is applied to identify the global determinants of housing prices. Second, a Difference-in-Differences (DID) approach is utilized to evaluate the stage-specific net causal impacts of transit policies on property values. Finally, Multiscale Geographically Weighted Regression (MGWR) is introduced to explore the spatial heterogeneity of relevant determinants.
The empirical results reveal four key findings: (1) The MRT Green Line exhibited significant anticipatory capitalization, though price growth decelerated post-operation due to congestion externalities. Conversely, the elevated railway demonstrated a sustained, compensatory premium driven by urban integration. (2) Dual-rail transfer stations generated synergistic premiums for the railway system but induced price discounts for the MRT due to compromised residential amenities from excessive foot traffic. (3) MGWR confirms high spatial heterogeneity in land-use diversity and population agglomeration—acting as functional drivers in emerging MRT zones but manifesting as congestion costs in saturated railway districts. Similarly, neighborhood facilities (e.g., schools) exhibited effects on housing prices that varied from positive to negative depending on the local socio-economic context. (4) Transit-induced land value appreciation attracted capital influx, exhibiting an upward socioeconomic shift consistent with gentrification along the MRT corridor, while the elevated railway's old-town core showed a more delayed transition. Ultimately, this study elucidates the temporal dynamics and spatial heterogeneity of dual-rail impacts, providing empirical evidence for context-specific urban planning and TOD strategies.

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