臺灣住宅市場長期呈現高房價、高自有率、高空置率與相對低租金並存之現象。本文旨在探究臺灣住宅市場是否仍依循傳統供需理論之價格調節機制運行，以臺北市與臺中市作為不同人口遷移型態之城市比較對象，檢驗空置率是否能透過市場供給壓力影響租金調整，並進一步探討房價水準是否削弱空置率對租金之調節效果。以2015年第一季至2024年第四季為研究期間，建立臺北市十二個行政區與臺中市九個行政區之季追蹤資料，並採用Panel ARDL模型與ECM誤差修正模型，分別建立雙向互動模型，以分析租金、空置率與房價水準之長短期互動關係。臺北市與臺中市之空置率上升並未形成租金下修壓力，相較於空置率租金調整更明顯受到房價水準影響，市場中的空置住宅未必能轉化為有效供給，進而使高空置率與租金上漲並存之現象持續存在。若欲改善住宅市場供需失衡問題，政策制定上除應關注租金水準本身外，更應思考如何提升空置住宅之有效供給，並透過租賃資訊透明化、租賃制度健全化、稅制調整與空屋活化政策，引導閒置住宅進入租賃市場，以提升住宅資源配置效率。

Taiwan’s housing market has long been characterized by the coexistence of high housing prices, high homeownership, high vacancy rates, and rising rents. The study examines whether the rent adjustment mechanism in Taiwan’s housing market still follows traditional supply and demand logic. Using Taipei City and Taichung City as comparative cases with different population migration patterns, this study analyzes the relationship among rents, vacancy rates, and housing prices. Quarterly panel data from 2015Q1 to 2024Q4 are constructed for twelve districts in Taipei City and nine districts in Taichung City. Panel ARDL and ECM models are applied to examine both short-run and long-run interactions. The empirical results show that rising vacancy rates in both cities do not generate significant downward pressure on rents. After incorporating housing price levels, rent adjustments are found to be more closely related to housing prices than to vacancy rates. These findings indicate that vacant housing does not necessarily become effective rental supply, allowing high vacancy rates and high rents to coexist.Therefore, policies aimed at improving housing market imbalance should not focus solely on rent levels, but should also address how to transform vacant housing into effective rental supply. Improving rental market transparency, strengthening rental regulations, adjusting tax policies, and promoting vacant housing activation may help enhance the efficiency of housing resource allocation.

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