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| 研究生： |
莫伊塞斯 |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱： |
合作背後的矛盾：南海爭議下的東協與中國關係之探討 The contradictions behind cooperation: ASEAN-China relations under the South China Sea disputes |
| 指導教授： |
王冠雄
Wang, Dustin |
| 學位類別： |
碩士
Master |
| 系所名稱： |
社會科學學院 - 亞太研究英語碩士學位學程(IMAS) International Master's Program in Asia-Pacific Studies(IMAS) |
| 論文出版年： | 2010 |
| 畢業學年度： | 98 |
| 語文別： | 英文 |
| 論文頁數： | 167 |
| 相關次數： | 點閱：257 下載：85 |
| 分享至: |
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This thesis aims to describe the two dynamics present in the maritime disputes of the South China Sea: the negotiation dynamic and the military dynamic. This thesis will focus on two aspects: first, the history of the confidence building measures in the South China Sea; and second, analysis of each relevant nations’ motivation for the current stage of the Southeast Asian military dynamic. The role of ARF in this process and the characteristics of the Track I and Track II diplomatic tools are analyzed along with its difficulties in progressing from the CBMs to preventive diplomacy (PD). The effects of the CBMs’ lack of progress on the current military power acquisitions of the South China Sea claimant states are objects of analysis as well. Within of the analysis of the confidence-building measures, this thesis also contemplates the role of China as the most important variable in the dispute.
The second part of this thesis works with the connections between the developments of the South China Sea and the current military buildup in Southeast Asia. Aiming to identify the causes of the military dynamic, the thesis describe the current military capabilities of the main actors of the South China Sea disputes; namely China, Vietnam, Malaysia and the Philippines. Moreover, it provides a detailed description of the new equipment acquisitions and the impacts, in terms of the power capabilities, of these actors. A final analysis of the current panorama of the disputes is conducted, analyzing the key events between 2009 and 2010. This thesis concludes that the CBM’s efforts suffer from structural bottlenecks as the adamant adherence to the concept of sovereignty impedes the bloc’s advancement in the establishment of solutions for the maritime territorial disputes. The absence of diplomatic solutions has directly influenced the momentum of militarization in the Southeast Asia.
ABSTRACT
INTRODUCTION 09
RESEARCH PURPOSE 12
RESEARCH QUESTION 12
METHODOLOGY 13
LITERATURE REVIEW 13
CHAPTER 1 – THE SOUTH CHINA SEA: BACKGROUND 22
1.1 – The Strategic aspects of the SCS’ Disputes 24
1.2 – The importance of the sea lanes of communication(SLOCs) 26
1.3 – The UNCLOS III and its impacts in the South China Sea disputes 29
1.4 – The claimants and demands.......……………………………………………………………….…… 31
1.5 – The United States interests 41
1.6 – The Japan interests 48
1.7 – Diplomacy and clashes. 49
1.8 – The living and non-living resources question 57
1.9 –The dilemma of common interests and the dilemma of common aversion: the two dynamics in the South China Sea 62
1.10 – Chapter Summary: Analysis 64
CHAPTER 2 – THE NEGOTIANTING DYNAMIC : THE CBMS IN THE SCS ISSUE 68
2.1 –Confidence Building Measures (CBM): Definition of Term 70
2.2 – The CBMs efforts in the South China Sea 75
2.4 –The preventive diplomacy 86
2.5 –Sovereignty concepts and ASEAN Way: independent variables 88
2.6 – The China factor 91
2.7 –Perceptions and Outcomes 92
2.8 – Chapter Summary: analysis 99
CHAPTER 3 – THE MILITARY DYNAMIC: THE ARMS BUILD UP IN THE SOUTHEAST ASIA 103
3.1 – The Source of Military Dynamic in the Southeast Asia 111
3.2 – The SCS’ Claimants’ Military Modernization and Capabilities 118
a) China 120
b) Malaysia 124
c) Vietnam 125
d) Philippines 129
3.3 – Chapter Summary: Analysis 130
CHAPTER 4 – LATEST DEVELOPMENTS (2009-2010): AN ANALYSIS 136
a) The Malaysia-Vietnam joint-submission at the United Nations Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf 137
b) New Philippine Border Law: the baselines question 140
c) The Chinese submarine harbor building 141
d) China’s naval exercises in the South China Sea 142
e) The Vietnam-Russia Arms deal and Military Cooperation with US 145
4.1 –Chapter Summary: Analysis 147
CONCLUSION 151
BIBLIOGRAPHY
TABLE OF FIGURES
Fig.1 - Maritime claims 32
Fig. 2 – Nine-Dotted Line (Taiwan) 37
Fig. 3 – U-Shaped Line (China) 37
Fig. 4 - China’s naval exercises (2010) 114
INDEX OF TABLES
Table 1- Summary of Territorial Claims Basis and Occupation in South China Sea 39
Table 2- Incidents South China Sea 54
Table 3- Types of Confidence Building Measures 74
Table 4- Military Expenditure of SCS’s States claimants 106
Table 5- China’s Naval Forces 122
Table 6- The Flotillas Deployed by China from its North, East and South Sea Fleets 123
Table 7- The Malaysian’s Air and Maritime Arms Acquisitions and Capabilities (2003-2004). 124
Table 8-The Vietnam’s Air and Maritime Arms Acquisitions and Capabilities (2003-2004) 126
Table 9-The Philippine’s Air and Maritime Arms Acquisitions and Capabilities (2003-2004) 130
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NEWSPAPER
““Foreign analysts misread China's strategic golden rule”. Xinhua News –08 June 2010.
“Gates on China: Speaking the truth makes the Pacific a safer place”. Wall Street Journal, 08 june,2010.
