1991年底蘇聯的解體，使得俄羅斯的政治體制由一黨專政走向多元民主，其經濟體制也從過去以社會主義所有制轉變為市場經濟體制。在俄羅斯進行政經轉型的初期，國際貨幣基金會（International Monetary Fund；以下均簡稱為IMF）以龐大的金援為後盾，介入俄羅斯的政經發展，對俄羅斯的制度抉擇有著深遠的影響。因此，本文旨在透過剖析IMF1992年至1999年間援俄計劃的形成過程、內容、俄羅斯決策當局對IMF援俄計劃的回應，以及影響俄羅斯決策當局的因素，探究IMF援俄計劃與俄羅斯政經發展的互動關係。

本論文主要採用「系統理論」(the Systems Theory)的研究途徑，探討IMF的援俄計劃與俄羅斯政經發展的互動關係。其中，以「議價模式」(the Bargaining Model)說明在IMF援俄計劃的形成過程中，IMF的組織成員，主導IMF政策走向的美國、英國等已開發國家，以及俄羅斯當局三者的角力過程。最後，再以「克里姆林宮政治研究途徑」(Kremlin Politics approach)敘探俄羅斯決策當局回應IMF要求時的考量因素。在此研究架構下，本論文第一章除說明研究動機與目的、研究架構與途徑、研究限制外，還介紹與研究題目相關的文獻，並指出過去文獻所未考量之處，以做為論文研究之基礎；第二章續述IMF的運作概況，探討影響IMF援俄計劃形成的可能因素；第三章闡述俄羅斯的初始條件、IMF援俄計劃的內容、俄羅斯當局的回應，以及IMF援俄計劃所帶來的成效與弊端；第四章則論述1992年至1999年俄羅斯的政經發展，並指出IMF的援俄計劃對俄羅斯政經發展的影響；第五章為結論。

本論文的結論是，雖然俄羅斯的政經發展會相互影響，但是對俄羅斯的決策當局而言，政治的穩固比經濟發展路線的選擇更為重要。IMF在1992年至1999年間許多關鍵時刻對葉爾欽表示支持，使葉爾欽在多次的政爭中仍得以保有政權；而葉爾欽為獲得IMF的金援，自然會推動其所要求的市場經濟體制。因此，儘管俄羅斯的經濟改革迭有波折，但是市場經濟體制在俄羅斯生根已是無庸置疑。

The collapse of the Soviet Union has led Russia from one-party dictatorship to plural democracy in politics and from socialistic ownership to free-market system in economy. During the initial period of Russia’s political and economical transformation, International Monetary Fund, backed up by the huge-amount loans, interfered with Russia’s political and economical developments, giving impact upon the choice of institutions in Russia. Therefore, this thesis is aimed to understand the interacting relationships between IMF’s aid program and Russia’s political and economical developments, by analyzing the forming process and content of IMF’s aid program toward Russia from 1992-9, the response of the Russian authorities toward IMF’s aid program, and the factors that influenced the Russian authorities to make their policies.

The thesis adopts the Systems Theory as its research approach to discuss the interacting relationships between the IMF’s aid program and Russia’s political and economical developments. Meanwhile, I use the “Bargaining Model” to explain the wrestling process among IMF’s staff and personnel, the countries dominating IMF’s direction of policies, like the US and the UK, and the Russian authorities. Finally, I further focus on the factors that the Russian authorities considered in response to IMF’s demands. The first chapter includes the research motives and objectives, the research frameworks and approaches, the research restrictions, and the relevant literature. The second one mentions the general situation of IMF and the factors that may influence the forming of the IMF’s aid program toward Russia. The third one specifies the initial conditions in Russia, the content of the IMF’s aid program, the Russian authorities’ responses, and the effect and the problems that the IMF’s aid program may bring out. The fourth one points out the impact that the IMF’s aid program put upon the Russia’s political and economical developments. The fifth one is the conclusion.

The conclusion is that though politics and economy influence each other in Russia, the stable political situation is more important than the choice of economic developments for the Russian authorities. IMF’s support for Boris N. Yeltsin on many key occasions from 1992 to 1999, allowed him to retain his power. And Yeltsin naturally promoted the market economy that IMF required for getting its loan. Therefore, despite the continuing difficulties in Russia’s economic reform, it’s no doubt that the market economy has taken root in Russia.

壹. 中文部分
一. 書籍
中央銀行經濟研究處譯印。國際貨幣基金協定。(第二次增訂本)。台北：中央銀行經濟研究處譯印，1979。
吳玉山。共產世界的變遷。台北：東大，1995。
吳玉山。俄羅斯轉型1992-1999－一個政治經濟學的分析。台北：五南，2000。
吳玉山。遠離社會主義。台北：正中，1996。
哈羅德•詹姆斯(Harold James)著，朱章才譯。經濟全球化：1975年11月15日，郎布依耶。台北：麥田，2000。
孫義宣、李榮謙編著。國際貨幣制度。台北：財團法人金融人員研究訓練中心，1988。
索羅斯(George Soros)著，聯合報編譯組譯。全球資本主義危機 (The Crisis of Global Capitalism)。台北：聯經出版事業公司，1998。
張光平。國際貨幣基金組機(IMF)與亞洲金融危機。台北：八方文化企業公司，1999。
畢英賢。俄羅斯。台北市： 政大國際關係研中心，1995。
郭武平。俄羅斯的政黨政治。台北：五南，1999。
馮紹雷。制度變遷與對外關係－1992年以來的俄羅斯。上海：上海人民出版社，1997。
葉自成。俄羅斯政府與政治。台北：揚智文化，1997。
劉宇飛編著。國際貨幣基金組織。北京：中國大百科全書出版社，1995。
羅平。貨幣可兌換和金融部門改革－國際貨幣基金組織的分析框架及作法。北京：中國金融出版社，1996。
關雪凌主編。艱難的歷程－俄羅斯經濟轉軌八年。北京：中國人民大學出版社，2000。
二. 期刊
王定士。「俄羅斯金融寡頭在民主化與經濟改革的角色：1992-1999」。俄羅斯學報。創刊號 (2001): 11-60。
王承宗。「俄羅斯經濟改革現況」。問題與研究33, 7 (1994): 11-27。
王瑤瑛。「國際貨幣基金會的制約條件、執行成效與政經效應」。問題與研究 38, 9 (1999): 65-90。
朱曉中。「國際金融組織在東歐和俄羅斯經濟轉軌中的作用」。東歐中亞研究 3 (1996): 60-68。
吳玉山。「金融風暴下的經濟轉型－俄羅斯的例子」。政治科學論叢 10 (Jun 1998): 279-291。
洪朝輝。「全球化－跨世紀的顯學」問題與研究 39, 8 (Aug 2000): 73-83。
夏義善。「俄羅斯的政治經濟形勢和發展趨勢」。國際問題研究 71 (1999): 16-20。
秦宗春、譚瑾瑜。「國際機制與東南亞金融危機救援方案：新自由主義之挑戰」。東南亞區域研究通訊 8 (1998): 48-60。
張維邦。「『震盪療法』(ShockTherapy)的幻滅、改革者的迷茫－俄羅斯的困境」。俄情雜誌 4, 4 (1995): 3-11。
張鐵柱。「普利馬科夫總理突遭免職，俄羅斯政局爆發新的危機」。瞭望新聞週報 21 (May 24, 1999): 14。
歐陽承新。「俄羅斯經濟安定政策的表□」。經濟前瞻 11, 5 (1996): 88-93。
歐陽承新。「俄羅斯經濟改革困局的成因」。經濟前瞻 11, 5 (1996): 66-73。
鄭貞茂，「IMF即將提供預防危機貸款」，國際經濟情勢週報 1283 (1999): 19-20。
簡淑琪，「IMF投票制應適度反映亞洲國家的貢獻」，國際經濟情勢週報1329 (2000): 14-16。
簡淑琪，「IMF的拋金行動無法造福貧窮國家」，國際經濟情勢週報1291 (1999): 62。
簡淑琪，「IMF秘書長坎迪薩斯請辭」，國際經濟情勢週報。1312 (1999): 16。
薩公強。「震盪療法、府會政爭與俄羅斯的前途」。經濟前瞻 35 (1994): 82-87。
顧昕。「俄羅斯激進政治經濟改革的終結」。信報財經月刊 259 (1998): 37。
三. 論文
王金雄。論俄羅斯的的聯邦經濟改革。台北：國立政治大學俄羅斯研究所，1998。
林美秀。國際貨幣基金金融援助對會員國經濟成長之影響(以墨西哥為例)。台南：成功大學政治經濟研究所，2000。
許瑜玟。俄羅斯府會政爭之研析：1992年－1993年。台北：國立政治大學俄羅斯研究所，1998。
四. 報紙
「IMF專家將協調俄羅斯債務問題」。中央社 (Feb 1, 2001): 4。
「史契帕辛真除俄羅斯總理」。中國時報 (May 20, 1999): 11。
「史契帕辛數度助葉度政治風暴」。中國時報 (May 13, 1999): 1 3。
「打車臣 葉爾欽警告各國別干預」。中國時報 (Nov 19, 1999): 11。
「伴君如伴虎，風光僅三月，史契帕辛「死忠」仍不悔」。中國時報 (Aug 10, 1999): 13。
「俄政府通過計劃 加強國家管控經濟」。聯合報 (Nov 1, 1998): 11。
「俄總理折損率高 八年內換了七位」。中央日報 (Aug 10, 1999): 11。
「普里馬科夫下臺與斯捷帕申上任」。生活時報 (May 15, 1999), http://www.gmw.com.cn/0_shsb/1999/05/19990515/ big5/979%5ESH2-1515.htm。
「無力捍衛 俄任盧布貶值 衝擊政經」。聯合報 (Aug 18, 1998): 10。
「葉爾欽開革總理史契帕辛，任命普丁暫代」。中國時報 (Aug 10, 1999): 13。
林湘義。「俄國經濟自由化會逆轉嗎？」。中國時報 (Aug 30,1998): 15。
張弘光。「從蒲亭的國情咨文看俄國政情」。中央社 (Apr 4, 2001): 10。
畢尚業、林湘義。「下不下台？葉爾欽與共黨的戰爭」。聯合報(Aug 30, 1998): 15。
郭武平。「拋不開權力一己之私 徒誤了民生千秋大葉」。聯合報 (May 19, 1999): 15。
趙竹成。「我們也在兩難天平上」。聯合報 (Jan 20, 1996): 14。
趙春山。「葉爾欽，推倒骨牌？」。聯合報 (Aug 20, 1998): 15。
趙春山。「葉爾欽政治生涯結束前兆」。聯合報 (Sep14, 1998): 15。
羅彥傑。「五大彈劾罪狀」。自由時報 (May 16, 1999): 10。
貳. 英文部分
一. 書籍
Aronson, Jonathan. Money and Power: Banks and the World Monetary System. Beverly Hills: Sage Library of social Research, 1977.
Aslund, Anders. Russian Economic Reform at Risk. London and New York: St. Martin’s Press, 1995.
Assetto, Valerie J. The Soviet Bloc in the IMF and the IBRD. Boulder, CO: Westview, 1988.
Breslauer, George W. Khrushchev and Brezhnev as Leaders: Building Authority in Soviet Politics. London: George Allen & Unwin Ltd., 1982.
David, Wilfred L. The IMF Policy Paradigm - The Macroeconomics of Stabilization, Structural Adjustment, and development. New York: Praeger Publishers, 1985.
De Vries, Margaret F. The International Monetary Fund, 1965-1971: The System Under Stress, Washington, D. C.: International Monetary Fund, 1976.
Eston, David. A Framework for Political Analysis. Englewood Cliffs, N. J., 1965.
Helleiner, G. K. The IMF and Africa in the 1980s. Essays in International Finance #152. Princeton, N. J.: Princeton University Press, 1983.
IMF staff team. Russian Federation: Recent Economic Developments. Washington D. C.: Publication Service, 1999.
Killick, Tony. The Quest for Economic Stabilization - the IMF and the third word. London: St. Martin’s Press, 1984.
Lavigne, Marie. The Economics of Transition - From Socialist Economy to Market Economy. Second Edition. New York: ST. Martin’s Press, INC., 1999.
Lichtensztejn, Samuel.“IMF-Developing Countries: Conditionality and Strategy.” Williamson, John. IMF Conditionality. Washington, D. C.: MIT Press, 1983.
Nelson, Lunn D. and Kuzes, Irina Y. Property to the people: The struggle for radical economic reform in Russia. New York: M. E. Sharpe, Inc., 1994.
Payer, Cheryl. The Debt Trap: The International Monetary Fund and the Third World. New York: Monthly Review Press, 1974.
Sampson, Anthony The Money Lenders: The People and Politics of the World Banking Crisis, New York: Penguin Press, 1981.
Southard, Frank. The Evolution of the International Monetary Fund. Essays in International Finance #135. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1979.
Stiles, Kandall. W. Negotiation Debt-The IMF Lending Process. Colorado: Westview Press, 1991.
W. Breslauer, George. Khrushchev and Brezhnev as Leaders: Building Authority in Soviet Politics. London: George Allen & Unwin Ltd., 1982.
Williamson, John. IMF Conditionality. Washington, D. C.: MIT Press, 1983.
二. 期刊
"OK-Start the Presses." Newsweek. (Dec 14, 1998): 41.
"We had little choice." Newsweek. (Aug 31, 1998): 47.
“Russian Economic Crisis Deepens: IMF Supported Reform Program Unravels; Kiriyenko Ousted, Replaced by Primakov”. Foreign Policy Bulletin 9, 5 (Washington, D.C.: Foreign Policy Bulletin, Sep. Oct. 1998): 18-43.
Buira, Ariel. “IMF Financial Programs and Conditionality. ” Journal of Development Economics 12 (1983): 111-136.
Cook, L. “Workers in the Russian Federation.” Communist and Post-Communist Studies 28, 11 (1995): 13-42.
Crockett, Andrew “Issues in the Use of Fund Resources. ” Finance & Development 19 (Jun 1982): 10-15.
Ellman, Michael “Shock Therapy in Russia: Failure of Partial Success?”RFE/RL Research Report 1, 34 (28 Aug): 48-61.
Gold, Joseph. “Political Considerations Are Prohibited Bu Articles of Agreement When the Fund Considers Requests for Use for Resources.” IMF Survey (May 11, 1983): 146-148.
Gomulka, Stanislaw. “The IMF-Supported Programs of Poland and Russia, 1990-1994: Principles, Errors, and Results.” Journal of Comparative Economics 20 (1995): 316-346.
Horowitz, Irving L. “The Roscommon’ Effect: Ideological Proclivities and Political Dilemmas of the International Monetary Fund. ” Journal of International Studies and World Affairs 27 (Winter, 1985-86): 37-55.
IMF. “Russian Federation – Request for First Credit Tranche Arrangement-Letter of Intent.” Document of International Monetary Fund and not for Public Use (Jul 13, 1992): 1-3.
Kwitney, Jonathan. “The‘Yes’Man Atop the IMF. ” Wall Street Journal 12（May 1983）: 37.
Minxin Pei, “Microfoundations of State-socialism and Patterns of Economic Transformation. ” Communist and Post-Communist Studies 29, 2 (Jun 1996): 131-145.
Wu, Yu-Shan & Tsai-Wei Sun. “faces of Vietnamese Communism: Small Countries’Institutional under Hegemony. ” Communist and Post-Communist Studies 31, 4 (Dec. 1998): 381-399.
三. 報紙
China News, Apr 25 1998, p.1.
四. 線上期刊
Angela Charlton Associated Press Writer. “IMF, Russia Discuss Debt Situation.” IMF-International Monetary Fund Home Page (Jan 21, 1999). http://www.river.org/~chuck/byline/1999/01/angela 025.html
Camdessus, Michel. “IMF's Camdessus Reviews Status of Russian Program.” IMF-International Monetary Fund Home Page (Dec 7, 1999). http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/nb/ 1999/nb9981.htm.
Camdessus, Michel. “International Cooperation for High-Quality Growth: The Role of the IMF at 50.” IMF-International Monetary Fund Home Page (Dec 21, 1994). http://www.imf.org/ external/np/sec/mds/1995/mds9501.htm.
Camdessus, Michel. “Russia and the IMF: Meeting the Challenges of an Emerging Market and Transition Economy.” IMF-International Monetary Fund Home Page (Apr 1, 1998). http://www.imf.org/external/np/speeches/ 1998/040198.htm.
Camdessus, Michel. “Russia: In Search of a Vision to Revitalize Reform.” IMF-International Monetary Fund Home Page (Jun 16, 1999). http://www.imf.org/external/np/speeches/1999/061699.htm.
Camdessus, Michel. “Russia: Stabilization and Reform.” IMF-International Monetary Fund Home Page (Apr 1, 1996). http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/mds/1996/mds9604.htm.
Camdessus, Michel. “Russia's Transformation Efforts at a Turning Point.” IMF-International Monetary Fund Home Page (Mar 29, 1995). http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/mds/1995/mds9505. htm.
Driscoll, David D. “What Is the International Monetary Fund?” IMF International Monetary Fund Home Page (Sep 1998). http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/exrp/what.htm.
Factsheet, A. “Gold in the IMF.” IMF-International Monetary Fund Home Page (Jul 31, 2000). http://www.imf.org/external/np/ exr/facts/gold.htm.
Factsheet, A. “How We Lend.” IMF-International Monetary Fund Home Page (Jul, 2000). http://www.imf.org/external/np/exr/ facts/howlend.htm.
Factsheet, A. “IMF Emergency Assistance Related to Natural Disasters and Postconflict Situations.” IMF-International Monetary Fund Home Page (Jul 31, 2001).http://www.imf.org/ external/np/exr/facts/conflict.htm.
Factsheet, A. “IMF Quotas and Quota Reviews.” IMF-International Monetary Fund Home Page (Jul 31, 2000). http://www.imf.org/ external/np/exr/facts/quotas.htm.
Factsheet, A. “Special Drawing Rights.” IMF-International Monetary Fund Home Page (Jan 1, 2001). http://www.imf.org/ external/np/exr/facts/sdr.HTM.
Factsheet, A. “The General Arrangements to Borrow (GAB) The New Arrangements to Borrow (NAB).” IMF-International Monetary Fund Home Page (Jul 31, 2000). http://www.imf.org/external/ np/exr/facts/gabnab.htm.
Factsheet, A. “The IMF at a Glance.” IMF-International Monetary Fund Home Page (Jan 1, 2001). http://www.imf.org/external/np/ exr/facts/glance.htm.
Fischer, Stanley. “Russian Economic Policy at the Start of the New Administration.” IMF-International Monetary Fund Home Page (Apr 6, 2000). http://www.imf.org/external/np/speeches/2000/ 040600.htm.
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IMF, “IMF Members' Quotas and Voting Power, and IMF Governors.” IMF-International Monetary Fund Home Page (Mar 21, 2001). http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/ memdir/members.htm.
IMF, “Russian Authorities and IMF Reach Understandings on 1998 Economic Policy Statement.” IMF-International Monetary Fund Home Page (Jun 11, 1998). http://www.imf.org/external/np/ sec/nb/1998/nb9820.htm.
IMF, “Terms of IMF Financial Assistance.” IMF-International Monetary Fund Home Page (Jul 18, 2000). http://www.imf.org/ external/np/tre/lend/terms.htm.
IMF, “What Is the International Monetary Fund?” IMF-International Monetary Fund Home Page (Sep 1998). http://www.imf.org/ external/pubs/ft/exrp/what.htm.
五. 網站
“Attitudes of Russians towards the Russian Policy in Chechnya.” Romir Research Group. http://www.romir.ru/eng/research/ nov2.htm.
Angela Charlton Associated Press Writer, “IMF, Russia Discuss Debt Situation,” The River Home Page (Jan 21, 1999), http://www.river.org/~chuck/byline/1999/01/angela025.html
CNN, “IMF approves $11.2 billion for Russia,” CNN.com Europe (Jul 21, 1998), http://www.cnn.com/WORLD/europe/9807/ 21/imf.russia.loan.