跳到主要內容

簡易檢索 / 詳目顯示

研究生: 黃牧天
Huang, Mu-Tien
論文名稱: 應用深度強化學習演算法於資產配置優化之比較
Comparison of Deep Reinforcement Learning Algorithms For Optimizing Portfolio Management
指導教授: 胡毓忠
Hu, Yuh-Jong
口試委員: 林士貴
Lin, Shih-Kuei
李韋憲
Li, Wei-Hsien
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 理學院 - 資訊科學系碩士在職專班
Excutive Master Program of Computer Science
論文出版年: 2021
畢業學年度: 109
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 57
中文關鍵詞: 財務工程深度學習強化學習深度強化學習
外文關鍵詞: Financial Engineering, Deep Learning, Reinforcement Learning, Deep Reinforcement Learning
DOI URL: http://doi.org/10.6814/NCCU202101194
相關次數: 點閱:312下載:58
分享至:
查詢本校圖書館目錄 查詢臺灣博碩士論文知識加值系統 勘誤回報
  • 本文主要有三個命題,命題一,深度強化學習模型應用於資產配置是否需財務時間序列與統計的背景知識?命題二,比較不同的深度強化學習演算法在不同市場情境下之優劣。命題三,比較深度強化學習演算法與現代投資組合理論之績效表現,深度強化學習演算法是否具有實務應用價值?以三命題剖析應用深度強化學習演算法於資產配置之各類比較,命題一研究成果顯示,使用特徵資料如符合深度強化學習模型前提假設之馬可夫性,將使模型具事半功倍之成效;命題二研究成果顯示,不同深度強化學習模型具不同偏差與方差權衡之特性,可對應於實務資產管理權衡績效與模型穩定度之取捨;命題三研究成果顯示,深度強化學習模型顯著優於現代投資組合理論之均值方差模型,並輔以客戶體驗角度論述其價值性;三類比較以貫穿本文主旨,期能以客觀公允之方式交付具意涵的比較分析結果,俾提升深度強化學習模型應用於資產配置之有效性。


    The purpose of this paper is three-fold. First, does the application of DRL require statistical (time-series) knowledge? The results revealed that using data that meets the model's assumptions will make the model more effective. Second, compare the pros and cons of DRL algorithms in different market. The results revealed that building DRL algorithms are forced to make decisions about the bias and variance. Ultimately, asset management companies have to find the correct balance for their customers. Third, What is the value of DRL? Compare the performance of DRL and MVO in detail to explain the value of DRL. The results revealed that DRL is significantly better than MVO, which can solve the pain points of current customers.

    1 前言 1
    1.1 研究動機 1
    1.2 研究目的 2
    1.3 研究架構 3
    2 文獻探討 4
    2.1 現代投資組合理論 4
    2.2 資訊理論 5
    2.3 強化學習理論 5
    2.4 演員評論家演算法 10
    3 相關研究 12
    3.1 現代投資組合理論 12
    3.2 深度強化學習理論 14
    4 研究方法 23
    4.1 實驗命題 23
    4.2 實驗流程 25
    4.3 實驗設計 27
    5 研究實作 31
    5.1 資料蒐集 31
    5.2 特徵工程 33
    5.3 模型訓練 34
    5.4 模型測試 41
    5.5 成果評量 44
    6 結論 48
    6.1 研究結論 48
    6.2 未來展望 50
    Reference 52

    [1] AdvisoryHQ.COM. Comarison review, betterment vs wealthfront vs vanguard. https://www.advisoryhq.com/articles/betterment-vs-wealthfront-vs-vanguard-ranking-review/. [Online; accessed 17March2021].

    [2] Annasamy, R. M., and Sycara, K. Towards better interpretability in deep qnetworks. In Proceedings of the AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence (2019), vol. 33, pp. 4561–4569.

    [3] Black, F., and Litterman, R. Global portfolio optimization. Financial analysts journal 48, 5 (1992), 28–43.

    [4] Bzdok, D., Altman, N., and Krzywinski, M. Points of significance: statistics versus machine learning, 2018.

    [5] Choi, B., and Choi, M. General solution of the black–scholes boundaryvalue problem. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications 509 (2018), 546–550.

    [6] Choi, P.M. Reinforcement learning in nonstationary environments. Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (Hong Kong), 2000.

    [7] Cortes, C., and Vapnik, V. Supportvector networks. Machine learning 20, 3 (1995), 273–297.

    [8] Cover, T. M. Universal portfolios. In The Kelly Capital Growth Investment Criterion: Theory and Practice. World Scientific, 2011, pp. 181–209.

    [9] Dankwa, S., and Zheng, W. Twindelayed ddpg: A deep reinforcement learning technique to model a continuous movement of an intelligent robot agent. In Proceedings of the 3rd International Conference on Vision, Image and Signal Processing (2019), pp. 1–5.

    [10] Degris, T., Pilarski, P. M., and Sutton, R. S. Modelfree reinforcement learning with continuous action in practice. In 2012 American Control Conference (ACC) (2012), IEEE, pp. 2177–2182.

    [11] Engle, R., and Granger, C. Longrun economic relationships: Readings in cointegration. Oxford University Press, 1991.

    [12] Fairbank, M., and Alonso, E. The divergence of reinforcement learning algorithms with valueiteration and function approximation. In The 2012 International Joint Conference on Neural Networks (IJCNN) (2012), IEEE, pp. 1–8.

    [13] Fan, J., Wang, Z., Xie, Y., and Yang, Z. A theoretical analysis of deep qlearning. In Learning for Dynamics and Control (2020), PMLR, pp. 486–489.

    [14] Filos, A. Reinforcement learning for portfolio management. arXiv preprint arXiv:1909.09571 (2019).

    [15] Fridman, M. Hidden markov model regression.

    [16] Fujimoto, S., Hoof, H., and Meger, D. Addressing function approximation error in actorcritic methods. In International Conference on Machine Learning (2018), PMLR, pp. 1587–1596.

    [17] Fürnkranz, J., Hüllermeier, E., Cheng, W., and Park, S.H. Preferencebased reinforcement learning: a formal framework and a policy iteration algorithm. Machine learning 89, 12 (2012), 123–156.

    [18] Gappmair, W. Claude e. shannon: The 50th anniversary of information theory. IEEE Communications Magazine 37, 4 (1999), 102–105.

    [19] Gourieroux, C., Wickens, M., Ghysels, E., and Smith, R. J. Applied time series econometrics. Cambridge university press, 2004.

    [20] Haarnoja, T., Zhou, A., Abbeel, P., and Levine, S. Soft actorcritic: Offpolicy maximum entropy deep reinforcement learning with a stochastic actor. In International Conference on Machine Learning (2018), PMLR, pp. 1861–1870.

    [21] Kolm, P. N., and Ritter, G. Modern perspectives on reinforcement learning in finance. Modern Perspectives on Reinforcement Learning in Finance (September 6, 2019). The Journal of Machine Learning in Finance 1, 1 (2020).

    [22] Kolm, P. N., Tütüncü, R., and Fabozzi, F. J. 60 years of portfolio optimization: Practical challenges and current trends. European Journal of Operational Research 234, 2 (2014), 356–371.

    [23] Kuan, C.M. Lecture on the markov switching model. Institute of Economics Academia Sinica 8, 15 (2002), 1–30.

    [24] Lam, J. W. Roboadvisors: A portfolio management perspective. Senior thesis, Yale College 20 (2016).

    [25] Lanne, M., Lütkepohl, H., and Maciejowska, K. Structural vector autoregressions with markov switching. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 34, 2 (2010), 121–131.

    [26] Li, B., Zhao, P., Hoi, S. C., and Gopalkrishnan, V. Pamr: Passive aggressive mean reversion strategy for portfolio selection. Machine learning 87, 2 (2012), 221–258.

    [27] Lillicrap, T. P., Hunt, J. J., Pritzel, A., Heess, N., Erez, T., Tassa, Y., Silver, D., and Wierstra, D. Continuous control with deep reinforcement learning. arXiv preprint arXiv:1509.02971 (2015).

    [28] Longstaff, F. A., and Schwartz, E. S. Interest rate volatility and the term structure: A twofactor general equilibrium model. The Journal of Finance 47, 4 (1992), 1259–1282.

    [29] Markowitz, H. The utility of wealth. Journal of political Economy 60, 2 (1952), 151–158.

    [30] McCulloch, W. S., and Pitts, W. A logical calculus of the ideas immanent in nervous activity. The bulletin of mathematical biophysics 5, 4 (1943), 115–133.

    [31] Mnih, V., Kavukcuoglu, K., Silver, D., Rusu, A. A., Veness, J., Bellemare, M. G., Graves, A., Riedmiller, M., Fidjeland, A. K., Ostrovski, G., et al. Humanlevel control through deep reinforcement learning. nature 518, 7540 (2015), 529–533.

    [32] Moerland, T. M., Broekens, J., and Jonker, C. M. Modelbased reinforcement learning: A survey. arXiv preprint arXiv:2006.16712 (2020).

    [33] Moody, J., and Wu, L. Optimization of trading systems and portfolios. In Proceedings of the IEEE/IAFE 1997 Computational Intelligence for Financial Engineering (CIFEr) (1997), IEEE, pp. 300–307.

    [34] Nachum, O., Norouzi, M., Xu, K., and Schuurmans, D. Bridging the gap between value and policy based reinforcement learning. arXiv preprint arXiv:1702.08892 (2017).

    [35] Ng, A. Y., Russell, S. J., et al. Algorithms for inverse reinforcement learning. In Icml (2000), vol. 1, p. 2.

    [36] Onali, E., and Goddard, J. Are european equity markets efficient? new evidence from fractal analysis. International Review of Financial Analysis 20, 2 (2011), 59–67.

    [37] Perold, A. F. The capital asset pricing model. Journal of economic perspectives 18, 3 (2004), 3–24.

    [38] Rasekhschaffe, K. C., and Jones, R. C. Machine learning for stock selection. Financial Analysts Journal 75, 3 (2019), 70–88.

    [39] Rasmussen, C. E. Gaussian processes in machine learning. In Summer school on machine learning (2003), Springer, pp. 63–71.

    [40] Rezaee, Z., Aliabadi, S., Dorestani, A., and Rezaee, N. J. Application of time series models in business research: Correlation, association, causation. Sustainability 12, 12 (2020), 4833.

    [41] Rosenblatt, M. A central limit theorem and a strong mixing condition. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 42, 1 (1956), 43.

    [42] Sato, Y. Modelfree reinforcement learning for financial portfolios: a brief survey. arXiv preprint arXiv:1904.04973 (2019).

    [43] Sculley, D., Snoek, J., Wiltschko, A., and Rahimi, A. Winner’s curse? on pace, progress, and empirical rigor.

    [44] Silver, D., Lever, G., Heess, N., Degris, T., Wierstra, D., and Riedmiller, M. Deterministic policy gradient algorithms. In International conference on machine learning (2014), PMLR, pp. 387–395.

    [45] Statista. Personal finance report 2021. https://www.statista.com/outlook/dmo/ fintech/personal-finance/robo-advisors/worldwide. [Online; accessed 10Jun2021].

    [46] Sutton, R. S., and Barto, A. G. Reinforcement learning: An introduction. MIT press, 2018.

    [47] Sutton, R. S., McAllester, D. A., Singh, S. P., Mansour, Y., et al. Policy gradient methods for reinforcement learning with function approximation. In NIPs (1999), vol. 99, Citeseer, pp. 1057–1063.

    [48] Weinan, E., Han, J., and Jentzen, A. Deep learningbased numerical methods for highdimensional parabolic partial differential equations and backward stochastic differential equations. Communications in Mathematics and Statistics 5, 4 (2017), 349–380.

    [49] Xiong, J. X., and Idzorek, T. M. The impact of skewness and fat tails on the asset allocation decision. Financial Analysts Journal 67, 2 (2011), 23–35.

    [50] 金融監督管理委員會. 金融科技(fintech) 全球發展趨勢與證券市場應用評估. https://www.fsc.gov.tw. [Online; accessed 10Jun2021].

    QR CODE
    :::