隨著全球人工智慧（AI）與半導體產業快速發展，南部科學園區（南科）在國家科技戰略政策支持下，近年產值呈現爆發式成長。然而，高度集中於單一高耗能產業的發展模式，亦同步帶動水資源、電力供應及土地利用等實體資源需求急遽攀升，形成區域資源供需失衡與排擠效應。若此趨勢持續深化，除了降低園區面對極端氣候與能源衝擊之韌性外，亦可能使南科陷入區域創新系統（Regional Innovation System）中的鎖定效應（Lock-in Effect），抑制產業多樣性發展，壓縮中小企業與新興產業之成長空間，影響區域創新生態系的長期永續性。因此，本研究旨在探討南科在高科技產業快速擴張下所面臨之資源脆弱性與產業集中風險，提出兼顧科技發展與區域韌性的因應策略。
本研究蒐集2016～2025年新竹科學園區（竹科）與南科之產值及水、電、土地等實體資源次級資料，比較兩園區資源投入與產值成長之變化趨勢，並導入赫芬達爾－赫希曼指數（Herfindahl–Hirschman Index）量化產業集中程度，以評估產業結構風險。此外，考量極端氣候、能源調度及政策變遷所形成之深度不確定性（Deep Uncertainty），本研究結合強健決策（Robust Decision Making）之XLRM（EXogenous Uncertainties, Policy Levers, Relationships, and Performance Measures）分析框架，並以臺灣歷史重大乾旱事件為情境基礎，進行系統脆弱度（Vulnerability）診斷。研究結果顯示，南科產值快速成長伴隨資源需求持續攀升，半導體產業集中程度亦逐年提高，使資源供給風險與產業集中風險同步增加。基於上述分析，本研究提出「資源總量管制與風險內部化」及「產業多樣性資源配額保留」兩項強健策略，以降低資源擠兌及單一產業過度集中的潛在風險。研究成果可作為科技園區提升資源韌性、促進產業多元發展及推動永續治理之政策參考，並提供RDM應用於科技園區治理之實證案例。

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