| 研究生: |
張祐瑄 |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱: |
管理當局能力與分析師盈餘預測之關聯性 The Relationship between Managerial Ability |
| 指導教授: | 金成隆 |
| 學位類別: |
碩士
Master |
| 系所名稱: |
商學院 - 會計學系 Department of Accounting |
| 論文出版年: | 2014 |
| 畢業學年度: | 102 |
| 語文別: | 中文 |
| 論文頁數: | 59 |
| 中文關鍵詞: | 管理當局能力 、分析師追隨人數 、分析師預測精確度 、分析師預測離散程度 |
| 相關次數: | 點閱:114 下載:0 |
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本研究以我國2000至2012年的上市櫃公司為研究對象,探討管理當局能力與分析師盈餘預測行為的關係,預測行為迴歸模型以分析師追蹤人數、分析師盈餘預測準確性及預測離散度三種特性進行分析。本研究預期,當管理當局能力好,分析師相信該公司將提供可靠性之財務報導,故其追蹤意願提高,且分析師盈餘預測結果將愈接近實際值,彼此間之預測亦趨於一致。
研究結果發現,管理當局能力與分析師追蹤人數、盈餘預測精確度皆呈現顯著正相關,與預測離散程度則為負相關,代表經理人能力較佳,分析師對該公司之追蹤意願較高,且盈餘預測誤差與預測離散度較低。本研究藉此結果推論,管理當局能力愈佳之企業,經理人越會提供品質良好、具可靠性的財務報導,故分析師將愈信賴該公司所提供之資訊,並可幫助分析師做出更精準之盈餘預測,並降低彼此間之預測誤差。
壹、前言 1
第一節 研究動機與目的 1
第二節 研究架構 4
貳、文獻探討 5
第一節 管理當局能力之相關文獻 5
第二節 分析師盈餘預測行為與預測品質 7
參、研究設計 12
第一節 研究假說 12
第二節 資料來源與樣本篩選 14
第三節 實證模型與變數衡量 16
肆、實證結果與分析 24
第一節 樣本產業分配情況 24
第二節 敘述性統計量 26
第三節 相關係數分析 29
第四節 迴歸結果分析 34
第五節 增額測試 43
第六節 敏感性測試 49
伍、結論與建議 52
第一節 結論 52
第二節 研究限制與建議 54
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