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研究生: 呂學翰
Lu, Hsueh-Han
論文名稱: 保險公司生死合險保單匯率風險避險分析:考量無本金遠期匯率及匯率選擇權
Hedging Currency Risk for the Life Insurance Company with Endowment Policies: the use of Non-deliverable Forwards and Currency Options
指導教授: 楊曉文
口試委員: 林士貴
楊曉文
蔡子晧
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 商學院 - 金融學系
Department of Money and Banking
論文出版年: 2020
畢業學年度: 109
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 56
中文關鍵詞: 匯率避險資產負債管理生死合險保單利率風險死亡風險
外文關鍵詞: Exchange rate hedging, Asset-liability management, Endowment policy, Interest rate risk, Mortality risk
DOI URL: http://doi.org/10.6814/NCCU202001753
相關次數: 點閱:267下載:20
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  • 為處理保險公司面臨之匯率風險,本研究建構保險公司的資產、負債以及盈餘模型,假設保險公司發行生死合險保單、設定要保人每期繳納平準保費。在分析保險公司盈餘時同時考慮死亡風險、利率風險。為因應近年來保險公司進行國外投資之趨勢,本研究更考慮保險公司執行國外投資的情況,且利用其引入保險公司的匯率風險,並對風險進行管理。本研究注重於比對國內投資、國外投資以及國外投資後各種避險方式之盈餘表現、對盈餘以及盈餘拆解項做一連串的透析與檢視。本研究之相關分析方法可應用於更廣泛的議題以及更深入之探討,希望藉由本研究之啟發,能夠引起更多專業人士投入此方面的研究。


    To deal with the exchange rate risk faced by the life insurance company, this paper constructs the asset model, liability model and the surplus model of it. Assumed that the life insurance company issued endowment policies that policyholders pay level premium each year. We consider the mortality risk and interest rate risk at the same time while analyzing the surplus of the life insurance company. Apart from this, with the trend of international investment among the retails and legal entities, we must consider the currency risk, too. We induce the currency risk by making foreign bonds investment of the company, and perform the analysis of the hedging efficiency of different methods. This paper puts an emphasis on the comparison of the surplus outcome of different portfolio, including domestic investment and foreign investment, and a series of studying the surplus and the surplus decomposition of the life insurance company. We hope this paper would be the inspiration of some expert to conduct the survey in related to this domain.

    第一章 緒論 1
    第一節 研究動機 1
    第二節 研究目的 3
    第三節 研究架構 3
    第二章 文獻探討 5
    第一節 死亡率模型 5
    第二節 短期利率模型 6
    第三節 匯率模型 7
    第四節 盈餘分析 9
    第三章 模型假設 10
    第一節 死亡率模型 10
    第二節 短期利率模型 11
    第三節 匯率模型 13
    第四章 保險公司盈餘分析模型 15
    第一節 匯率避險工具 15
    第二節 保險契約、保費與準備金 16
    第三節 資產、負債與盈餘 17
    第四節 最佳投資組合 19
    第五節 盈餘分析 22
    第五章 模擬結果與分析 24
    第一節 參數估計與設定 24
    第二節 匯率下跌之模擬結果與分析 26
    第三節 匯率上漲之模擬結果與分析 40
    第四節 匯率持平之模擬結果與分析 47
    第六章 結論 51
    參考文獻 53
    附錄一、盈餘分析方法 55

    一、中文文獻
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    二、英文文獻
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    15.Tseng, F. M., Tzeng, G. H., Yu, H. C., & Yuan, B. J. (2001). Fuzzy ARIMA model for forecasting the foreign exchange market. Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 118(1), 9-19.
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