| 研究生: |
李坤智 Lee,Kun-chin |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱: |
演化、群聚以及策略互動---以富人和窮人的投資合作過程為例 Evolution, Cliques, and Strategic Interaction on Network Formation |
| 指導教授: |
莊委桐
Juang,Wei-torng |
| 學位類別: |
碩士
Master |
| 系所名稱: |
社會科學學院 - 經濟學系 Department of Economics |
| 論文出版年: | 2006 |
| 畢業學年度: | 95 |
| 語文別: | 中文 |
| 論文頁數: | 70 |
| 中文關鍵詞: | 演化 、群聚 、突現 、策略互動 、社會網路 、模擬 、網路形成過程 |
| 外文關鍵詞: | evolution, cliques, mutation, strategic interaction, social network, simulation, network formation |
| 相關次數: | 點閱:133 下載:99 |
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本研究為探討網路演化過程中的群聚現象,說明網路是否能夠藉由訊息傳遞的過程而浮現出族群分離的現象,為此我們架構了一個電腦模型,同時加入了突現行為(mutation)的考量,藉此來瞭解網路形成過程中的不理性行為是否有影響族群群聚的功效存在,探討在不同的突現發生機率下,網路演化過程中的群聚現象是否會隨著突現發生機率的不同而產生不同的結果。至於,在連結形成方面,我們設定連結如果要形成的話,必須要雙方玩家都願意採取相同的投資動作才能成立,連結必須要雙方玩家都相互協調的情況下才能建立,所以玩家每期都會先選擇要進行的投資策略,其次才依照雙方所選擇的投資動作來決定連結是否建立,並不像以往的文獻中所述,完全依照玩家是否有連結誘因存在來決定連結是否建立,在本研究中玩家是依照雙方所選擇的投資動作來決定連結是否形成。
在此研究中,我們以富人和窮人的投資合作過程為故事背景,假定玩家都有兩種投資策略可以選擇,玩家會從中擇一採用,當雙方玩家協商之後,如果雙方都願意採取相同的投資動作的話,則連結就會建立。設定富人選擇投資策略的自由度較高,而窮人選擇投資策略的自由度較低,因此當玩家開始去尋找適合的合作伙伴時,窮人所受的限制較多,而富人所受的限制較少,但是為了避免設定了太強的假設,所以本研究盡量使用較為薄弱的假設,盡可能使窮人與富人之間的差異性不大且符合現實。在這種行為模式的設定下,我們利用兩個群聚比例來計算每期所形成的同性質連結數目,藉由這兩個群聚比例的變化來探究網路形成過程中的群聚分離狀況,因此我們利用了一個較為間接的方式來瞭解所要討論的議題。
本研究透過演算模擬得到幾個結論:(1)平均群聚比例會隨著突現發生機率趨於0而不斷提升,代表網路隨著突現發生機率的下滑,族群分離的程度會隨之趨於明顯。(2)當突現發生機率很低時,平均群聚比例會隨著玩家每期能夠建立的最大連結數目增加而下滑,網路內的族群分離現象逐漸不明顯。但是當突現發生機率很高時,卻會維持在平均的水準。(3)當玩家的人數增多時,突現的發生對群聚比例會有提升的效果存在,不管最大連結數目為何都會有如此的結果。(4)如果市場上處於一個貧富人數不均的環境下,則隨著網路的演化最後所計算出來的族群現象就會越明顯,富人自然會和富人相連,而窮人自然會和窮人相連,群聚現象是自然演變出來的。(5)若搜尋時採隨機模式,則平均群聚比例在突現發生機率很高時會較一般模式差,而在突現發生機率很低時則與一般模式差異不大。(6)若突現僅限於連結的斷裂,且窮人的動作選擇僅限於投資策略二,則平均群聚比例則會趨近於一。
摘要…I
目次…II
表目錄…III
圖目錄…IV
第一章 緒論…1
第一節 研究背景與動機…1
第二節 研究目的…3
第三節 研究方法…3
第四節 研究貢獻…5
第五節 研究架構…8
第二章 文獻回顧與探討…9
第一節 網路文獻回顧…9
第二節 群聚文獻回顧…15
第三節 文獻貢獻與差異…21
第三章 模型與演算…26
第一節 假設…26
第二節 網路形成過程…34
第三節 動態演化特性…35
第四節 演算與模擬…37
第四章 結論…63
第一節 研究結論…63
第二節 研究限制…65
第三節 未來研究方向…66
參考文獻…67
中文參考文獻
胡守仁(2003)連結。台北:天下遠見。(原文:Nexus : small worlds and the groundbreaking science of networks by Mark Buchanan, New York : W.W. Norton & Company, 2002)。
博士哲、謝良瑜(2004)6個人的小世界。台北:大塊文化。(原文:Six Degrees: The Science of a Connected Age, by Watts, Duncan J., W W Norton & Co Inc, 2004)。
彭昭英(2002)SAS與統計分析。台北:儒林。
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