本文目的是了解俄羅斯國防工業承繼蘇聯軍工複合體後，面對蘇聯解體的經濟衰退，缺乏現代化的老舊產業設施，以及冷戰時期兩極體系的瓦解，如何擴大戰略產業收歸國有的範疇，強化中央控管，提高產業效率，並透過武器出口實現政治和經濟層面的目標。尤其在2014年克里米亞事件後，俄羅斯的國防產業正處於國際制裁的艱困環境，除了國內經濟難以維持高昂的研發費用，海外銷售也受制於西方封鎖關鍵零件和技術的出口，使軍事工業的生產面臨巨大困境。

本文回顧從2000年開始，截至2018年，俄國的國防與出口政策，闡述影響俄羅斯武器出口政策改變的因素，並透過出口對象分佈、武器種類變化和出口協議簽訂的多寡，以數據分析俄羅斯武器出口重心和國際客戶佈局，並探析武器出口的政治和經濟考量。最後討論俄羅斯面對兩大亞洲客戶之間迥異的軍事技術合作方式，揭示面對客戶轉型為武器生產者的狀況下，如何維繫兩國軍火貿易，此舉也展現俄國未來在國際武器市場立足的方式。

本文總結得出俄羅斯的武器出口政策有三項特點，作為現階段和未來應對武器出口的指導原則：第一，採取中央政府強力管控國防產業的方式，建立大型國營控股公司，形塑以總統為首的垂直結構出口程序；第二，俄羅斯初期經濟蕭條，以經濟改革和復甦為目標，全力挽救國防產業，直至克里米亞事件後，俄羅斯正式與西方世界分道揚鑣，離間西方勢力，成為武器出口的主要動機；第三，面對中國與印度兩大武器接收國，俄羅斯過去採取維持兩客戶間戰力平衡的策略，因為歐美的制裁，拉近俄中兩國關係，轉為優先出售先進武器給中國，暫時擱置中國仿造工程的爭議。

The purpose of this thesis is to understand how the Russian defense industry uses the nationalization of strategic industries to strengthen central control, improve industrial efficiency, and achieve political and economic goals through arms exports, in the face of the economic recession of the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the inability to modernize old industrial facilities, and the collapse of the Cold War system. Especially after the Crimea crisis in 2014, Russia’s defense industry is in a difficult environment of international sanctions. In addition to the domestic economy’s difficulty in maintaining high research and development costs, overseas sales are also subject to the Western blockade of exports of key technologies, making the military industrial production face huge difficulties.

This paper reviews Russia’s national defense and export policy from 2000 to 2018, expounds the factors affecting the changes in Russia’s arms export policy, and analyzes Russian arms exports based on the distribution of customers, changes in weapon types, and the number of arms transfers agreements. Finally, it discusses Russia’s different ways of military technology cooperation between the two major Asian customers. This move also shows how Russia will continue to gain a foothold in the international arms market.

This thesis concludes that Russia’s arms export policy has three characteristics, which serve as the guiding principles for the current and future response to arms exports. First of all, the central government adopts strong control of the defense industry to establish a large state-owned holding company and shapes a vertical structure of the export process headed by the president. Second, Russia’s initial economic depression, with the goal of economic reform and recovery, was to save the defense industry. After the Crimea crisis, Russia formally parted ways with the Western world, and the alienation of Western forces became the main motivation for arms exports. Third, facing India and China, the two major weapons receivers, Russia used to adopt a strategy of maintaining the balance of military capability between the two customers. After the sanctions imposed by Europe and the United States, Russia has changed its mind and decided to sell advanced weapons to China first, despite the controversy over China's reverse engineering.

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