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研究生: 鄧昱辰
Den, Yu-Chen
論文名稱: 基於卷積神經網路之型態與橫斷面股票報酬率
Image Pattern Based on Convolutional Neural Network and Cross-Sectional Stock Return
指導教授: 羅秉政
Kendro Vincent
口試委員: 蔡銘峰
Tsai, Ming-Feng
王釧茹
Wang, Chuan-Ju
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 商學院 - 金融學系
Department of Money and Banking
論文出版年: 2024
畢業學年度: 112
語文別: 英文
論文頁數: 54
中文關鍵詞: 卷積神經網路股票價格型態橫斷面報酬預測技術分析
外文關鍵詞: Convolutional neural network, Stock chart pattern, Cross-sectional return predictability, Technical analysis
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  • 本論文探討使用卷積神經網路(CNN)應用於由股價和成交量生 成的影像,來預測股票報酬率的可能性。我們採用多類別分類模型預 測股票報酬,其表現優於二元分類模型。此外,我們的研究還考慮了 不同股票型態的可預測性,發現小市值股票通常較大市值股票具有較 高的年度夏普比率和更顯著的月超額報酬。我們的研究成果強調在股 票報酬預測中,考慮橫截斷效應和股票型態異質性的重要性,為投資 者和研究人員提供了新的見解。


    This paper investigates the predictability of stock returns using Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) apply to images generated from stock prices and volumes. We employ multi-class classification models to predict stock returns that outperform binary classification models. Additionally, our study examines the predictability of different stock styles, revealing that small-capital stocks generally exhibit higher annual Sharpe ratios and more pronounced monthly excess returns than large-capital stocks. Our findings underscore the importance of considering cross-sectional effects and stock style heterogeneity in stock return predictions, providing valuable insights for investors and researchers alike.

    摘要
    Abstract ii
    Contents iii
    List of Figures v
    List of Tables vi

    1 Introduction 1

    2 Literature Review 5
    2.1 Machine Learning and Computer Vision Models in Finance 5
    2.2 Cross-sectional Return Predictability 6
    2.3 Technical Analysis as Factors 7

    3 Data 8
    3.1 Generation of image data 8

    4 Methodology 12
    4.1 Labeling Methods 12
    4.2 Convolutional Neural Network 13
    4.3 Architecture of Convolutional Neural Network 14
    4.3.1 Convolutional layer 15
    4.3.2 Max-Pooling layer 15
    4.3.3 Activtion function 16
    4.4 Calculate the dimension of layers 17
    4.5 Optimizer 19
    4.6 Parameter initialization and tuning 19
    4.7 Fully connected layer 20
    4.8 Return prediction and portfolio construction 20

    5 Empirical Results 24
    5.1 CNN model performance 24
    5.2 Portfolio Performance Analysis 27
    5.2.1 Performance across all models 27
    5.2.2 Performance for a specific style of stocks 32
    5.2.3 Portfolio Decile Performance 36
    5.3 Channels of Predictability 43

    6 Conclusions & Future Works 48
    6.1 Conclusion 48
    6.2 Future Works 49
    Reference 51

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