近年來，由於企業及法律環境日漸複雜，應計會計基礎下所得到之淨利及每股盈餘不足以適切地評估企業各種活動的績效，造成重新肯定現金流量價值的趨勢。本研究乃針對三方面進行研究:

(一)傳統上有關的研究常以折舊加淨利或其他會計衡量來替代現金流量。由於真實的現金流量常無法取得且為了避免引用不當的現金流量替代物(proxy) 而造成研究上的偏誤，因此，有必要探討其他會計數據取代現金流量之適當性。

(二)美國FASB (1987) 強制公司編製現金流量表提供有用資訊以協助投資者及債權人預測未來現金流量(SFAC NO.1)，但現金流量基礎的資料是否真能預測未來現金流量?經過一些實證研究發現無法得到一致的結論，本研究乃針對國內情況予以測試最佳現金流量預測變數，以作為是否須強制編製現金流量表的參考。

(三)各產業皆有其行業特性及經濟狀況，本研究乃測試各產業之最佳預測變數，以提供由各產業彈性選用財務報表編製基礎的參考。

本研究採用橫斷面(Cross section)設計，探討四個預測變數(NIDPR、WCFO、CFO及CFAP) 對依變數(未來現金流量)的關係。首先依據有關實證文獻建立本研究之三個研究假設，並且提出每一個研究變數的衡量方法及模式的選用，繼而蒐集資料，來源取自台灣經濟新報社資料庫所蒐集各上市公司自民國71 年至79年的企業財務資料，本研究先以Pearson積差相關(Pearson product correlation)分析各預測變數間的相關性以決定是否真可將此四個變數予以區別為應計基礎資料(NIDPR 及WCFO) 與現金流量基礎資料(CFO 及CFAP)，再以4條迴歸模式及2條多變量迴歸模式並配合適當的統計檢定予以測試4種預測變數的預測能力。

實證結果顯示:

(一)應計會計資料與CFO 的相關程度甚低，意味著現金流量資料具有不同於應計會計資料的資訊，此實證結果間接地支持有另外提供現金流量資訊的必要。

(二)就所有樣本公司而言，NIDPR、WCFO、CFO 及CFAP 四者預測能力無顯著差異。因此，若針對「財務報表之目的，在於提供有用的資訊給投資者及債權人，以協助其預測、比較及評估未來現金流入之金額、時間及有關之不確定。」的觀點，則財務狀況變動表和現金流量表中的資料，對預測現金流量的能力並無顯著差異，或許可考慮不廢除財務狀況變動表的編製，而由各公司彈性選用所須編製的報表，以提供最有利的資訊給報表使用者。

(三)本研究探討了水泥、食品、紡織纖維、造紙及金融保險業等五種產業的最佳現金流量預測變數。結果可發現各產業之最佳現金流量預測變數皆不相同，這和Costigan (1985)的論點前後呼應，或許會計權威團體在制定一般公認會計原則時，應考慮、產業因素，規定一些因產業不同而處理方式不同的會計準則。所以，既然各產業的最佳現金流量預測變數不同，似可允許各產業彈性選用其報表編製類別!

(一)中文文獻
1.顏月珠 民國76年 商用統計學 三民書局。
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3.詹茂焜 民國76年 現金流量預測理論與實証之研究 天一圖書公司。
4.財務會計準則公報第十七號--現金流量表 民國78 年。

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*轉載自其他文獻