| 研究生: |
張柏詠 Chang, Pai-Yung |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱: |
基於深度強化學習來探索市場與資產因子於資產配置策略優化 Exploring Portfolio Optimization Strategy with Market and Asset Factors in Deep Reinforcement Learning |
| 指導教授: |
胡毓忠
Hu, Yuh-Jong |
| 口試委員: |
江彌修
Chiang, Mi-Hsiu 胡聚男 Hu, Chu-Nan |
| 學位類別: |
碩士
Master |
| 系所名稱: |
資訊學院 - 資訊科學系 Department of Computer Science |
| 論文出版年: | 2023 |
| 畢業學年度: | 111 |
| 語文別: | 中文 |
| 論文頁數: | 51 |
| 中文關鍵詞: | 機器學習 、深度強化學習 、資產配置 、投資組合 、DDPG 、LSTM |
| 外文關鍵詞: | Machine Learning, Deep Reinforcement Learning, Asset Allocation, Investment portfolio, DDPG, LSTM |
| 相關次數: | 點閱:48 下載:0 |
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本文共有三個實驗命題,命題一,研究深度強化學習模型在不同市場情境下如何應變。命題二,比較深度強化學習資產配置模型與加入市場分數之資產配置模型之風險報酬。命題三,探討加入市場分數之資產配置模型與加入無風險資產之資產配置模型差異。以三命題探索不同市場趨勢與不同資產池對於深度強化學習資產配置模型之各類比較,命題一研究顯示深度強化學習資產配置模型在市場趨勢屬於恐慌時期與熊市時皆能有效改善風險報酬率;命題二研究成果顯示將資產配置模型拆成資產分數與市場分數兩部分,能在有效降低風險同時保有一定的獲利能力,風險報酬率更勝單純資產配置模型。命題三研究成果顯示加入市場分數與於資產池中加入無風險資產之資產模型各有優缺點,然長期來看加入市場分數較能在承受相同風險條件下追求更優的獲利率。三命題皆以風險與報酬指標來比較不同資產配置模型優劣,期望能建構出穩定獲利資產配置模型。
There are three experimental purposes in this paper. First, how will the DRL asset management model respond to different market trends? Second, compare the risk-reward of the DRL asset management model with the DRL asset management model added market score. Third, discuss the difference between the asset management model adding market scores and the asset management model adding risk-free assets. Explore various comparisons of different market trends and different asset pools for the DRL asset management model with three propositions. The results revealed that the DRL model can effectively improve the risk-reward ratio during the great depression and bear market. The research results of proposition 2 show that splitting the asset management model into two parts, the asset score and the market score, can effectively reduce risks while maintaining certain profitability, and the risk-reward ratio is better than the traditional asset management model. The research results of proposition 3 show that adding market scores and adding risk-free assets to the asset pool have its own advantages and disadvantages. However, in the long term, adding market scores can pursue better profitability under the same risk conditions.
第一章 前言 1
第一節 研究動機 1
第二節 研究目的 1
第三節 研究架構 2
第二章 文獻探討 4
第一節 時間序列預測文獻回顧 4
第二節 資產配置文獻回顧 5
第三章 研究方法論 8
第一節 長短期記憶(LSTM)演算法介紹 8
第二節 深度確定策略梯度(DDPG)演算法介紹 11
第四章 系統設計 17
第一節 系統概述 17
第二節 資產分數系統 18
第三節 市場分數系統 21
第五章 研究實作 24
第一節 資料集來源與週期 24
第二節 特徵工程 24
第三節 交易參數設定 27
第四節 模型訓練 28
第五節 模型成果評量 30
第六章 結論與未來展望 41
第一節 研究結論 41
第二節 未來展望 43
參考文獻 48
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全文公開日期 2028/02/21