本研究之主要目的在探討臺灣地區婦女之教育、就業、生育及人口流動與

離婚率的關係，並預測未來五年之離婚率。 本研究以臺灣地區廿三縣

市為樣本，資料來源為「中華民國統計年鑑」及「中華民國臺閩地區人口

統計」。以皮爾遜積差相關係數、單因子變異數分析及多元迴歸探討婦女

教育、就業、生育及人口流動與離婚率之關係；並以自我迴歸整合移動平

均模式來分析預測未來五年之離婚率。本研究的主要發現為：１．在婦女

教育方面：高中及大學教育女性比例愈高的縣市，其離婚率也愈高；而國

中畢女性比例、小學畢女性比例及婦女識字率，則與離婚率無關。２．在

婦女就業方面：婦女整體就業率與離婚率無關。但若從行業別而言，從事

第三類行業的婦女愈多，離婚率愈高。若就職業而言，從事監督、佐理工

作之婦女愈多，離婚率愈高；而從事農、林、漁、牧、狩獵工作之婦女愈

多，離婚率則愈低。３．在生育率方面：一般生育率愈高，離婚率愈低；

並且，大專以上畢業婦女生育率也與離婚率成反比。４．在人口流動方面

：人口總移動率與離婚率成反比。５．在迴歸分析方面：大學畢女性比例

、高中畢女性比例、監督佐理人員女性比例、農林漁牧工作人員女性比例

、一般生育率、大專畢業育齡婦女生育率、及人口總移動率等七個指標均

對離婚率有顯著影響。６．未來五年之離婚率，呈逐年上升趨勢。

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