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研究生: 葛瑞格
Gregory Coutaz
論文名稱: 天然災害風險評估的政府對策
Government Responses to Insuring Against Natural Disaster Risks
指導教授: 劉復國
Liu, Fu kuo
學位類別: 博士
Doctor
系所名稱: 社會科學學院 - 亞太研究英語博士學位學程(IDAS)
International Doctor Program in Asia-Pacific Studies(IDAS)
論文出版年: 2016
畢業學年度: 104
語文別: 英文
論文頁數: 198
中文關鍵詞: 自然災害東亞政府保險
外文關鍵詞: Natural Disasters, East Asia, Governments, Insurance
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  • Disaster management and insurance are of increasing significance in today’s world. Every year, natural disasters cause tens of thousands of deaths and tens of billions of dollars worth of losses. The figures available from international agencies such as the International Federation of Red Cross/Red Crescent Societies and from major transnational insurance and reinsurance corporations meeting in Davos every year under the World Economic Forum show that mortality rates have been fairly consistent, whilst the number of recognized catastrophic events, and even more, the size of economic losses, have rapidly increased. This research examines the difficult task to successfully mobilize the requisite financing for adaption. Traditionally, governments have endorsed ex-post financing instruments. This research argues that there is substantial value in shifting to a comprehensive disaster risk management strategy that stresses the combination of a broader distribution of risk and the implementation of ex-ante financing instruments as the most effective way to achieve coherent financial protection. This research analyzes the diversity of national disaster risk governance across East Asia from the comparative perspective of the national disaster management plans implemented by the governments of Taiwan, Japan and China to handle the rising costs of natural disasters. This research aims to provide a research platform to assist policy development design to increase government financial preparedness for catastrophe risks.
    Disaster management studies are not a discipline per se, but a field of study borrowing to several disciplines of social sciences from economics to geography. Since government responses to threatening disaster situations are what draw the attention of this research, it makes sense to consider problem-solving theories of political science as the most appropriate theoretical settings to locate this analysis. Therefore, the theoretical foundations of functionalism and disaster theory serve as a theoretical support. Using a descriptive approach, this research favors a qualitative type of methodology. The primary sources consulted during the fieldwork, as well as the information gathered as evidence, demonstrate that the governments of Taiwan, Japan and China have taken a series of measures and actions to tackle the financial costs of natural disasters, including the elaboration of legal frameworks, the enactment of budgetary rules and the development of local support and private participation. However, despite the efforts and policies adopted, these governments continue to bear the financial burden of handling the majority of economic losses, and to resort to post-disaster financing instruments to assume their financial responsibility. This research concludes that, given their exposure to natural disasters and the rising costs associated with these events, the governments of Taiwan, Japan and China have no choice but to shift towards effective national disaster risk governance that will promote private coverage and preserve public finances.

    Chapter 1: Introduction 1
    1.1 Addressing the threat of natural disasters 1
    1.2 Disaster risk governance 4
    1.3 Literature review 8
    1.3.1 Costly disasters 8
    1.3.2 Financing disasters 14
    1.3.3 Synthesis 22
    1.4 Theoretical framework 22
    1.5 Methodology 30
    1.6 Conceptualization 33
    1.7 Data collection and analysis 35
    1.8 Research objectives 37

    Chapter 2: Taiwan Case Study 39
    2.1 Political and economic context 39
    2.2 Risk identification 41
    2.3 Overview of past disasters 42
    2.3.1 921 Earthquake 46
    2.3.2 Typhoon Morakot 47
    2.4 Economic impacts 49
    2.5 Financial protection 51
    2.5.1 Taiwan Residential Earthquake Insurance Fund (TREIF) 52
    2.5.2 The Formosa Re CAT bond 55
    2.6 Ex-ante financing instruments 57
    2.7 Broader distribution of risk 60
    Chapter 3: Japan Case Study 66
    3.1 Political and economic context 66
    3.2 Risk identification 69
    3.3 Overview of past disasters 70
    3.3.1 Kobe Earthquake 74
    3.3.2 Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami 75
    3.4 Economic impacts 77
    3.5 Financial protection 81
    3.5.1 Japan Earthquake Reinsurance (JER) 82
    3.6 Ex-ante financing instruments 85
    3.7 Broader distribution of risk 89
    Chapter 4: China (Shanghai) Case Study 94
    4.1 Political and economic context 94
    4.2 Risk identification 97
    4.3 Overview of past disasters 98
    4.3.1 Typhoon Winnie 102
    4.3.2 Typhoon Matsa 102
    4.3.3 Typhoon Haikui 103
    4.4 Economic impacts 103
    4.5 Financial protection 106
    4.5.1 The Panda Re CAT bond 108
    4.5.2 China Residential Earthquake Insurance Pool (CREIP) 108
    4.5.3 Disaster insurance pilot schemes 109
    4.6 Ex-ante financing instruments 110
    4.7 Broader distribution of risk 115
    Chapter 5: Preparing for Natural Disasters 122
    5.1 Final results 122
    5.1.1 Securing adequate resources 127
    5.1.2 Private protection 131
    5.2 Hypotheses and research questions 133
    Chapter 6: Conclusion 145
    6.1 Living with disasters 145
    6.2 Suggestions and recommendations 147
    6.3 Theoretical and practical contributions 154
    6.4 The future of disasters 156

    Bibliography 158

    Appendix 1: Disaster in East Asia 190

    Appendix 2: List of Interviewees 197

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    Swiss Re. (2014). Mind the risk: A global ranking of cities under threat from natural disasters. Retrieved from http://media.swissre.com/documents/Swiss_Re_Mind_the_risk.pdf

    Takagi, M. (1996). Social, economic, and administrative issues, Kobe, disaster prevention division, mimio. Retrieved from http://www.rieti.go.jp/jp/publications/dp/13e063.pdf

    Tan, L. H. I., and Lam, J. S. L. (2013). Understanding the risk and impact of natural disasters along a shipping network. Proceedings of the IAME Conference, Paper ID 316. Marseille.

    “Tokyo at risk: Government estimates 23,000 killed in quake beneath Tokyo”. (December 20, 2013). The Asahi Shimbum. Retrieved from http://ajw.asahi.com/article/behind_news/social_affairs/AJ201312200082

    Tschoegl, L., Below, R., and Guha-Sapir, D. (2006, April 2-4). An analytical review of selected data sets on natural disasters and impacts. Paper prepared for the UNDP/CRED Workshop on Improving Compilation of Reliable Data on Disaster Occurrence and Impact, Bangkok.

    United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP). (2015, October). Asia-Pacific disaster report 2015. Retrieved from http://www.unescap.org/news/asia-pacific-disaster-report-2015-%E2%80%93-disasters-without-borders

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    Wang, Z., Lin, T., and Walker, G. (2009, June). Earthquake Risk and Earthquake Catastrophe Insurance for the People's Republic of China (Working Paper Series No. 7). Retrieved from http://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publications/28481/adb-wp09-earthquake-riss-catastrophe-insurance.pdf

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    中文部分

    劉昌森 (2010),“上海自然灾害史”, 同濟大學出版社.

    許晃雄,陳正達,盧孟明...等 (2011), “臺灣氣候變遷科學報告”, 行政院國家科學委員會 .

    國立政治大學商學院風險與保險研究中心 (2012), “我國整合性天災風險管理政策研討會”.

    行政院經濟建設委員會 (2012), “國家氣候變遷調適政策綱領”.

    中央災害防救委員會 (2013), “災害防救基本計畫”.

    行政院 (2014), “民國103年災害防救白皮書”.
    民政部财务和机关事务司 (1965-2013), “中国民政统计年鉴",中国统计出版社”.

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