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| 研究生： |
狄敏莉 Nosipho Natiah Dlamini |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱： |
綠色財政政策作為結構性緩衝：整合再生能源以消除撒哈拉以南非洲對商品和外國援助的依賴所造成的財政擠出效應 Green Fiscal Policy as a Structural Buffer: Integrating Renewable Energy To Dismantle Fiscal Crowding-out of Commodity and Foreign Aid Dependence in Sub-Saharan Africa |
| 指導教授： |
卞中佩
Pien, Chung-pei |
| 口試委員: |
蘇昱璇
Su,Yu-hsuan 林竣達 Lin, Jiun-Da |
| 學位類別： |
碩士
Master |
| 系所名稱： |
社會科學學院 - 應用經濟與社會發展英語碩士學位學程(IMES) International Master's Program of Applied Economics and Social Development(IMES) |
| 論文出版年： | 2026 |
| 畢業學年度： | 114 |
| 語文別： | 英文 |
| 論文頁數： | 50 |
| 中文關鍵詞： | 綠色財政緩衝 、資源詛咒 、財政能力 、再生能源 、撒哈拉以南非洲追蹤資料 |
| 外文關鍵詞： | Green Fiscal Buffer, Resource Curse, Fiscal Capacity, Renewable Energy, SSA Panel Data |
| 相關次數： | 點閱：8 下載：0 |
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撒哈拉以南非洲國家的經濟波動長期受到結構性因素影響，其主要原因在於對初級商品出口及不可預測之外國援助的高度依賴。傳統全球化理論認為，開放型經濟體會自然擴大政府支出，以降低外部衝擊對民眾造成的影響。然而，許多非洲國家卻在商品價格波動與援助資金不穩定的情況下，面臨財政空間受限的困境。本研究探討再生能源裝置容量的擴張是否能夠作為一種結構性的總體財政緩衝機制，進而穩定政府公共支出，並提升國內非資源稅收動員能力。
本研究使用涵蓋 2000 年至 2024 年共 41 個撒哈拉以南非洲國家的追蹤資料（Panel Data），並採用固定效果模型（Fixed Effects Model）進行實證分析，以評估綠色基礎建設、自然資源依賴及官方發展援助對政府財政表現之影響。研究結果顯示，再生能源的發展與較穩定的民生公共支出以及較強的國內非資源稅收能力呈現正向關聯。
本研究認為，對綠色基礎建設的策略性投資，不僅具有環境永續的價值，更能提升國家長期財政自主性（Fiscal Sovereignty）與經濟韌性，為長期依賴自然資源的撒哈拉以南非洲國家提供促進財政穩定與永續發展的重要途徑。
Economic volatility remains a structural challenge for Sub-Saharan African states, driven largely by their deep reliance on primary commodity exports and unpredictable foreign assistance. While traditional globalization theories posit that open economies naturally expand government expenditure to insulate citizens from external shocks, many African nations paradoxically experience constrained fiscal space during cycles of commodity price fluctuations and aid volatility. This research investigates whether the scaling of renewable energy capacity can operate as a structural macro-fiscal buffer, effectively stabilizing public spending and enhancing domestic non-resource tax mobilization. Utilizing a comprehensive panel dataset of 41 SSA economies from 2000 to 2024, this study deploys Fixed Effects estimation models to evaluate the intersecting impacts of green infrastructure, natural resource dependency, and official development assistance on state fiscal outcomes. The empirical evidence demonstrates that renewable energy deployment is positively correlated with stabilized civilian public expenditures and more robust internal tax revenue generation. Ultimately, this research concludes that strategic investments in green infrastructure transcend environmental goals, offering a critical pathway toward long-term fiscal sovereignty and economic resilience in historically resource-reliant African states.
Acknowledgements 2
摘要 3
Abstract 4
List of Tables 7
Chapter 1: Introduction 8
1.1 Background of the Study 8
1.2 Problem Statement 9
1.3 Significance of the Study 10
1.3.1. Theoretical Innovation: Challenging the Rodrik Hypothesis. 10
1.3.2. Policy Relevance: From Green Projects to Economic Defense 10
1.3.3. Building Institutional Resilience: The Social Contract 11
Chapter 2: Literature Review 12
2.1 The Resource Curse and Fiscal Pro-cyclicality 12
2.2 The Aid-Tax Paradox and Domestic Revenue Mobilization 13
Chapter 3: Theoretical Framework — The Energy-Economy Nexus and the Green Fiscal Buffer 15
3.1 The Energy-Economy Nexus: Renewables as a Structural Buffer 15
3.2 Micro-Mechanisms of Green Decentralization and Tax Base Expansion 16
3.3 Macro-Fiscal Stabilization and Subsidy Redirection 16
3.4 Research Hypotheses 17
Chapter 4: Methodology and Empirical Strategy 18
4.1 Data Sources, Sample Selection, and Econometric Framework 18
4.2 Empirical Specifications 19
4.3 Econometric Methods and Estimation Technique 20
4.4 Descriptive Overview of the Sample 21
4.5 Non-Resource Tax Mobilization Analysis: Variables Specification and Model Framework 23
4.5.1 Variables in the Tax Mobilization Model 23
4.5.2 Mathematical Specification 23
4.6 Civilian Government Expenditure Analysis: Variables Specification and Model Framework. 24
4.6.1 Variables in the Government Expenditure Model 24
4.6.2 Mathematical Specification 24
4.7 The Resource Asymmetry Effect: Variables Specification and Model Framework 25
4.7.1 Variables in the Heterogeneity Model 25
4.7.2 Mathematical Specification 25
Chapter 5: Results 26
5.1 Hypothesis 1: The Foreign Aid Shield 26
5.2 Hypothesis 2: The Commodity Curse Breaker 28
5.3 Hypothesis 3: The Resource Asymmetry Effect 30
Chapter 6: Discussion 32
6.1 Overview of the Findings 32
6.2 Renewable Energy and Fiscal Capacity 32
6.3 Revisiting the Resource Curse 33
6.4 Renewable Energy and Fiscal Sovereignty 34
6.5 Comparison with Previous Literature 34
Chapter 7: Conclusion 37
7.1 Summary 37
7.2 Policy Implications 38
7.3 Limitations of the Study 38
7.4 Contributions of the Study 39
References 42
APPENDIX A — Country Classification Table 45
Appendix A: Resource Group Classification of Selected Economies 45
APPENDIX B — Variable Definitions Table 46
Appendix B: Variable Definitions and Data Sources 46
APPENDIX C — Full Regression Outputs 47
Appendix C.1 Non-Resource Tax Revenue Models 47
Appendix C.2 Government Expenditure Models 48
Appendix C.3 Resource Asymmetry Models 49
Appendix D — Correlation Matrix 50
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