雖然技術分析的爭議非常的多，在市場上卻仍然被廣泛應用，原因即是因為容易被理解且方便應用，不過當馬可夫轉換模型出現時，技術分析便面臨的挑戰。馬可夫轉換模型又稱為隨機分段趨勢模型(stochastic segmented trend model)，預測方法也類似於技術分析，利用一段期間內的趨勢來判斷未來走勢。
本研究利用馬可夫轉換模型以及技術分析中相當受歡迎的移動平均轉換法相互作比較，研究標的則選擇國內的兩種期貨：臺股期貨與黃金期貨和國外的五種商品期貨：紐約黃金、布蘭特原油、芝加哥小麥、玉米和大豆共七種期貨，相互比較後，我們發現馬可夫轉換模型在樣本內的獲利績效比均線轉換法的績效要來得好，其中平滑推論又比濾嘴推論的績效好。
另外，馬可夫轉換模型在樣本外的績效並不亮眼，原因可能是估計參數的不穩定性過高，不過在臺灣黃金期貨的部分，樣本外表現也是非常的亮眼。

一、 中文部分
1. 黎明淵， “馬可夫轉換模型應用性與合用性探討”，國立政治大學國際貿易學系博士論文，民國八十九年.
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