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研究生: 陳朝逸
Chen, Chao Yi
論文名稱: 簡單加速壽命試驗及型二混合設限之Weibull資料分析
Analysis for Weibull Data under Simple Step-Stress and Type II Hybrid Censoring
指導教授: 陳麗霞
Chen, Li Shya
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 商學院 - 統計學系
Department of Statistics
論文出版年: 2014
畢業學年度: 102
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 32
中文關鍵詞: 加速壽命試驗型二混合設限簡單加速試驗累積暴露模型Weibull分配最大概似估計量的漸進信賴區間基於概似比的漸進信賴區間拔靴信賴區間
外文關鍵詞: Accelerated life testing, type II hybrid censoring, simple step-stress testing, cumulative exposure model, Weibull distribution, asymptotic confidence interval, likelihood ratio-based confidence interval, bootstrap confidence interval
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  • 本論文探討的是在簡單加速壽命試驗及型二混合設限下Weibull資料的估計問題。由於實驗單位在兩階段的應力水準不同,在累積暴露模型之假定下,解出最大概似估計值並求得觀察到的訊息矩陣。進而介紹各參數之最大概似估計量的漸進信賴區間、基於概似比的漸進信賴區間,以及三種拔靴信賴區間。在不同的樣本數、應力改變的時間及實驗預定的終止時間之下,利用蒙地卡羅法模擬計算各參數估計量的偏差和均方誤差等指標,以評估其與應力改變的時間及實驗預定終止的時間之關係;再對各參數的各種信賴區間分別計算覆蓋率以評估區間估計之表現。其中,最大概似估計量的漸進信賴區間不但計算時間短且覆蓋率之表現較佳。


    In this thesis, the estimation problems for Weibull data under simple step-stress and type II hybrid censoring are considered. Due to different stress level undertaken by those experiment units surviving through the first stage, the maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs) of the parameters and the corresponding observed information matrix are derived under the cumulative exposure model. Then, asymptotic confidence intervals derived from the asymptotic distributions of the MLEs, likelihood ratio-based confidence intervals and three bootstrap confidence intervals are introduced. With different sample sizes, change-points for changing the stress-level, and preplanned stopping times, Monte-Carlo simulations are carried out and the average biases, mean squared errors, and other criterions are computed to discover the relations between these criterions and change-points and preplanned stopping times. Coverage rates for confidence intervals are also computed to evaluate their performances. Finally, the asymptotic confidence interval is recommended due to taking less computation time and achieving better coverage rate than other methods.

    第一章 緒論 1
    1.1 研究背景、動機與目的 1
    1.2 論文結構 2
    第二章 文獻探討 3
    第三章 模型簡介及估計 6
    3.1 模型假設 6
    3.2 最大概似估計法 9
    3.3 參數的區間估計 11
    3.3.1 最大概似估計量的漸進信賴區間 11
    3.3.2 基於概似比的漸進信賴區間 11
    3.3.3 拔靴信賴區間 12
    3.3.3.1 百分位數拔靴信賴區間 14
    3.3.3.2 調整百分位數拔靴信賴區間 15
    3.3.3.3 拔靴t信賴區間 16
    第四章 模擬結果 18
    4.1 點估計之評估 18
    4.2 區間估計之評估 19
    第五章 結論與建議 26
    參考文獻 28
    附錄 30

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