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研究生: 張窈菱
論文名稱: 年報揭露程度與分析師盈餘預測關係之研究
指導教授: 林美花
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 商學院 - 會計學系
Department of Accounting
論文出版年: 2005
畢業學年度: 93
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 152
中文關鍵詞: 年報揭露分析師盈餘預測預測誤差預測分歧性
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  • 本文旨在檢視股東會年報之資訊揭露是否具有預測價值,分別以年報資訊數量及品質二者與分析師盈餘預測誤差及分歧程度之關係探討之。研究結果顯示,年報揭露之資訊數量與資訊品質愈高,分析師盈餘預測誤差愈低,足見我國年報內容有助於提升分析師預測準確度。就年報揭露程度與分析師盈餘預測分歧程度之關聯性而言,本研究發現,年報資訊揭露數量愈多,分析師預測分歧性愈低;然本研究並未能證實,年報資訊揭露品質與分析師預測分歧性具有顯著的反向關係。換言之,資訊數量與預測分歧性具有較強的負向關聯性,而資訊品質則否。前述研究結果顯示,公司增加年報揭露項目,有助於提升各分析師對未來盈餘預測的共識,然經考量揭露內容的品質之後,其對預測分歧性的影響則較不明顯。推論原因,可能係年報揭露內容不足,使得分析師進行預測時尚須蒐集額外資訊以為彌補,以致降低年報揭露對預測分歧性的影響。


    第一章 緒論………………………………..…………………………………………1
    第一節 研究動機與目的…………………..………………………………………1
    第二節 研究貢獻………………………………………..…………………………6
    第三節 研究問題……………………………………………………..……………7
    第四節 論文架構…………………………………………………………………..8
    第五節 研究流程…………………………………………………………………..9
    第二章 文獻回顧…………………………………………………..………………..10
    第一節 分析師盈餘預測……………………………………………..…………..10
    第二節 揭露水準衡量……………………….…………………………………...17
    第三章 研究方法………………………………….………………………………...26
    第一節 研究架構…………………………………………………………………26
    第二節 研究假說……………………………………….………………………...27
    第三節 樣本選取與資料來源…………………………….……………………...30
    第四節 變數定義與衡量……………………………..…………………………..35
    第五節 資料分析方法………………………….………………………………...49
    第四章 實證結果與分析……………………………………….…………………...53
    第一節 敘述性統計分析………………………………………………….……...53
    第二節 相關係數分析……………………………………………........................77
    第三節 複迴歸分析………………………………………………........................81
    第五章 研究結論與建議……………………………………………......................100
    第一節 研究結論…………………………………………………......................100
    第二節 研究限制………………………………………………………………..103
    第三節 研究建議…………………………………………………......................104
    附錄一 揭露索引表………………………………………………………………105
    附錄二 資訊品質評估……………………………………………………………107
    附錄三 敏感度分析(一)…….……………………………………………………112
    附錄四 敏感度分析(二)………………………………………………………….136
    參考文獻…………………………………………………………..………………..149

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