本文針對臺灣的進出口總值資料進行貿易引力模型的實證研究，主要探討2020年與2021年全球新冠疫情嚴重肆虐期間，各國COVID-19確診人數、各國民主自由程度高低以及對臺經貿協議簽定與否如何影響臺灣的對外貿易表現。文中擴展傳統的貿易引力模型，除了使用臺灣主要貿易夥伴國的GDP、與臺灣之間的地理距離、語言共通與否、宗教相近性指數等數據之外，也加入各國確診人數、自由度分數以及是否與臺灣之間簽訂自由貿易協定（FTA）或經濟合作協議（ECA）等變數資料，以分析其各自對於臺灣進出口總值的影響。研究結果表明，臺灣貿易對象的確診人數與地理距離對臺灣的進出口總值呈顯著負相關；臺灣貿易對象的經濟規模、宗教近似程度以及對臺經貿協議的簽訂則對臺灣的進出口總值呈顯著正相關；而與貿易對手國之間的語言共通與否以及該國的民主自由程度高低則對於臺灣的進出口總值不具顯著相關性。

The purpose of this thesis was to conduct an empirical study on Taiwan's import and export value data using the extended Gravity Model of Trade. The study primarily investigated how the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in Taiwan's major trading countries, the level of democracy and freedom of each country, and whether they have signed a free trade agreement or economic cooperation agreement with Taiwan or not, affect Taiwan's foreign trade performance during the severe global COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021. The results revealed that the number of confirmed cases and geographical distance of Taiwan's trading partners have a significant negative correlation with Taiwan's import and export value. Furthermore, the economic scale, religious proximity, and signing of a trade agreement with Taiwan by its trading partners have a significant positive correlation with Taiwan's import and export value. However, the language commonality and level of democracy and freedom of the trading partner countries do not have a significant correlation with Taiwan's import and export value.

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