以往與資本管制有關的文獻很少討論沖銷干預影響，而與沖銷干預有關的研究，也很少納資本管制的考量，即使同時考慮資本管制與沖銷干預，必忽略了資本管制和沖銷措施關係的探討。另外，早期的實證方法皆採用傳統以恆定變數基礎的計量方法，而沒有考慮到總體經濟數列普遍具有非恆定的性質，即使考慮到非恆定的性質，亦未對台灣地區資本管制放寬對沖銷係數的影響從事實證解析。有鑑於此，本文擬以蕭文宗(1984)的模型為基礎，設立一個管理浮動滙率、部份沖銷的開族總體經濟隨機模型，據以探討政府放寬資本管制對沖銷措施的影響，並運用依非恆定數列發展出的統計分析方法，對台灣地區1985:1至1989:3和1989:4至1996:11這兩段期間，從事央行沖銷行為方程式的估計，以驗證理論模型所隱含的論點。本文主要結論如下：

1、由理論分析可知，政府放寬資本管制，央行的沖銷政策與經濟的衝擊是來自實質面或貨幣面息息相關。

若經濟體系的衝擊是來自實質面，此時央行應採勢干預，並採取部份沖銷措施。放寬資本管制後，需擴大沖銷幅度，以消弭因資本管制放寬造成干預幅度增加的影響。

若經濟體系的衝擊是來自貨幣面，央行應實施固定匯率制度，並且不採取任何沖銷措施，所以資本管制放寬，不會影響央行的沖銷措施。

當經濟體系的衝擊是同時來自實質面與貨幣面，政府若放寬資本管制，沖銷程度的增減決定於央行的匯率干預行為，及經濟體系的結構。

2、從實證結果可知：在二期間政府放寬對資本的管制後制,沖銷係數值大幅下降。由於經濟體系通常是實質面與貨幣面衝擊同時發生的情況，並且在實證的這段期間央行採取的是逆勢干預，因此台灣經濟體系會受到一限制：即實質面和貨幣面變異數的比值會大於－特定值，而此特定值的大小決定於資本管制程度、干預程度與經濟體系的結構參數。

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