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研究生: 阮宣浩
Nguyen, Xuan-Hoa
論文名稱: 時間序列模型於零售銷售預測的應用
An application of time series models to retail sales forecasting
指導教授: 莊皓鈞
Chuang, Howard
口試委員: 許嘉霖
Hsu, Chia-Lin
周彥君
Chou, Yen-Chun
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 商學院 - 國際經營管理英語碩士學位學程(IMBA)
International MBA Program College of Commerce(IMBA)
論文出版年: 2019
畢業學年度: 107
語文別: 英文
論文頁數: 45
中文關鍵詞: 預測時間序列模型訓練測試
外文關鍵詞: Forecasting, Time series, Models, Training, Testing
DOI URL: http://doi.org/10.6814/NCCU201900291
相關次數: 點閱:118下載:0
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  • Nowadays, the retail industry is very competitive. Most companies in this industry are facing many problems to satisfy customers the most and to be the most efficient. One of the most important problems is to make sales forecasting. In the past, it is more up to experiences to make sales forecasting, therefore the accuracy is often not good. With the development of computer and AI, machine learning methods, in the present, it is easier and more accurate to make a forecast for sales. In this thesis, time series models are applied with the aid of R programming to make sales forecasting. Firstly, we go to understand the basic knowledge about time series models, then we take an example of forecasting sales for a retail shop to apply these methods, including average, naive, snaive, drift, exponential smoothing, ARIMA, dynamic regression models. In the end, we come up with a conclusion about what we did in this thesis.

    1. Introduction 1
    2. Forecasting methods for time series sales data. 3
    2.1. Simple forecasting methods. 4
    2.2. Exponential smoothing. 5
    2.3. ARIMA models. 9
    2.4. Dynamic regression models. 11
    3. The forecasting process. 12
    4. Applying Forecasting to Corporacion Favorita Grocery 15
    5. Conclusion. 30
    6. References 31
    Appendix 32

    Brown, R. G. (1959). Statistical forecasting for inventory control. McGraw/Hill.
    Galit Shmueli, Kenneth C.Lichtendahl Jr (2015) Practical time series forecasting with R: a hand-on guide. Axelrod Schnall Publishers.
    Holt, C. E. (1957). Forecasting seasonals and trends by exponentially weighted averages (O.N.R. Memorandum No. 52). Carnegie Institute of Technology, Pittsburgh USA.
    https://www.kaggle.com/c/favorita-grocery-sales-forecasting/overview/description
    Hyndman, R.J., & Athanasopoulos, G. (2018) Forecasting: principles and practice, 2nd edition, OTexts: Melbourne, Australia. OTexts.com/fpp2
    Wickham, H. (2016). ggplot2: Elegant graphics for data analysis (2nd ed). Springer.
    Winters, P. R. (1960). Forecasting sales by exponentially weighted moving averages. Management Science, 6, 324–342.

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