論文題要

在貨幣理論日趨重要的今天，我們有必要清楚的了解貨幣需求與貨幣供給理論。前者在理論上已有長足的發展，後者卻付之闕如。本論文從個體行為基礎分析著手，推導出貨幣供給函數，再進而討論在考慮銀行行為後，貨幣政策的效果如何。如果本論文能對貨幣供給理論有些貢獻，則是本論文的最大心願。

論文第二章囘顧過去學者在相關理論上的貢獻。在貨幣供給方面，主要論文乃依

Friedman , Schwartz與Cagan的芝加哥方程式來做分析。在銀行行為則可分：資產選擇、負債管理與最適規模選擇三部分，而一個理想的銀行應同時考慮此三種行為。

接著本論文就建立一個同時考慮個別銀行廠商資產負債結構與最適規模的個體行為基礎。在考慮無償付能力風險與放款報酬下，銀行決定其最適資產組合；在考慮生產活期存款的生產函數與經營放款的支出函數之下，我們可得到銀行的成本函數；在同時考慮放款收入，承担風險和經營成本及追求最大利潤的假設下，我們一舉導出了個別銀行廠商的活期存款供給函數及放款需求函數。此卽同時決定了個別銀行的資產負債結構與最適規模。又由於吾人假設銀行體系是完全競爭的，故將個別銀行加總可得整個銀行體系的活期存款供給函數與放款需求函數。

由於銀行使用準備與大衆對通貨的需求處於競爭的地位，故獨立的貨幣供給函數是不存在的，但吾人可使用均衡的貨幣存量方程式代替，此卽芝加哥方程式。依上章導出的銀行活期存款供給函數與銀行放款需求函數，我們可推導出貨幣供給函數。我們發現考慮銀行行為後，貨幣供給函數並沒有很大的變化。

最後本論文建立一個包含財貨市場、借貸市場與貨幣市場的一般均衡方程式，分成充分就業與非充分就業兩種情況，再依銀行、體系有無足夠時間調整其成員數目，分長期、短期來分析。

比較靜態分析結果，我們發現只有變動強力貨幣的效果最明確，其他效果如公開市場操作，變動法定準備率和變動懲罰率的效果不是不能完全肯定，就是長、短期下的效果會改變。此外，如果銀行可用其他方式逃避利率的限制，則利率限制政策的效果將完全消失。最後，吾人發現，依本論文模型，將活期存款利率內生化，將可提高活期存款的資產性質，而會使大衆在其與放款之間做一種代替性的選擇，其結果是使各種貨幣政策對存款利率和放款利率的影響，不是使之同向變動，便是同時無法確定影響方向。最後本論文有下列缺失有待改進：(1)我們忽略放款風險，(2)我們假設銀行不使用股本， (3)我們只著重銀行的個體行為，忽略大衆行為，(4)在總體模型中，我們忽略因素市場，(5)本論文無法使物價與所得同時內生化，(6)本論文只符合單一銀行制度，而分支銀行制度將不能使用本論文的結論。

本論文計分六章十五節，全文約五萬餘言。

參考書籍與書目

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A Cmment, “ JMCB, Aug. 1972.

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[32] Mai, C. C., “ The Effect of Deposit Rate Ceiling on the Price Level under Pure Competition in the Production of Money,” An Unpublished Manuscript, 1979.

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[39] Orr, D., and W.G. Mellon, “ Stochastic Reserve Loans and Expansion of Bank Credit. “ AER, Sept. 1961.

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[41] Pesek, B., “ Bank’s Supply Functions and the Equilibrium Quantity of Money, “Canadian Journal of Economics, Aug. 1970.

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[43] Poole, W., “Commercial Bank Reserve Mangement in an Uncertain World : Implications for Monetary Policy, “JF, Dec. 1968.

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[51] ¬__________, “Money Supply Theory with Competitively Determined Deposit Rates and Activity Charges,” JMCB, Feb. 1979.

[52] __________, “ A Theory of Money Supply, “ An Unpublished Manuscipt, 1974.

[53] Sealey, C. W., and. J. T. Lindley, “ Inputs, Outputs and a Theory of Productions and Cost at Depositary Financial Institution, “ JF, Sept. 1977.

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[56] Tobin, J., “ A General Equilibrium Approach to Monetary Theory, “ JMCB, Feb. 1969.

[57] __________, “ Deposit Interest Ceilings as a Monetary Control,” JMCB, Feb. 1970.

[S8] Towey, R. E., “ Money Creation and the Theory of the Banking Firm,” JF, March 1974.

期刊縮寫對照表：

AER : American Economic Review,

JF : Journal of Finance,

JMCB : Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,

JME : Journal of Monetary Economics,

JPE : Journal of Political Economics,