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研究生: 夏英杰
論文名稱: 六個東協國家國際收支的決定因素研究: 以Panel Data分析法
The Determinants of Balance of Payments in Six ASEAN Countries: A Panel Data Analysis
指導教授: 莊奕琦
Chuang, Yih-Chyi
口試委員: 洪福聲
王銘正
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 社會科學學院 - 應用經濟與社會發展英語碩士學位學程(IMES)
International Master's Program of Applied Economics and Social Development(IMES)
論文出版年: 2017
畢業學年度: 105
語文別: 英文
論文頁數: 46
中文關鍵詞: 收入平均凱因斯主義分析法貨幣分析法面板數據
外文關鍵詞: Balance of payments, Keynesian approach, Monetary approach, Panel data
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  • This research investigates the determinant factors of balance of payments in six ASEAN countries using Keynesian and Monetary approaches during the period of 2002 to 2015. The regression model is conducted with panel data. This thesis first examines the influence of relevant economic variables to balance of payments, such as: exchange rate, gross domestic product (GDP), domestic credit, interest rate, and price level. Then, it tests the robustness of these economic variables with the two control variables: political stability and government’s consumption expenditure. The Hausman test result shows that Fixed Effect Model is a better model than Random Effect Model. According to this model, some economic variables, such as: exchange rate, GDP, and interest rate, are consistent to the Keynesian approach. Meanwhile, variable of price level is consistent to the Monetary approach and variable of domestic credit is inconsistent with, both Keynesian and Monetary approaches. According to the robustness test result, variable of exchange rate is still consistent with Keynesian approach, while variable of GDP and interest rate are partly consistent with Keynesian approach and partly are insignificant to balance of payment. Variable of domestic credit is inconsistent with both Keynesian and Monetary approaches and variable of price level is consistent with the Monetary approach. Variable of political stability shows a negative relationship with balance of payment, whereas variable government’s consumption expenditure is insignificant to balance of payment. This research concludes that Keynesian approach is more appropriate in examining the case of six ASEAN countries. The main reason is because the financial sector in ASEAN countries’ economies are inflexible and susceptible to pressure. In addition, there is a strict capital control in some of those six ASEAN countries. Hence, this research suggests that the government and monetary authorities in those six ASEAN countries should adopt a combination of expansionary fiscal and contractionary monetary policy. The amalgamation of expansionary fiscal and contractionary monetary policy will be efficient in generating adequate capital mobility in order to maintain the stability of balance of payments in the long run.

    1. Introduction 1
    1.1 Problem Statement 1
    1.2 Literature Review 4
    1.3 Organization of thesis 8
    2. Theoretical Framework 9
    2.1 Balance of Payment and Its Components 9
    2.2 Keynesian Approach and Monetary Approach to Balance of Payment 10
    2.2.1 Elasticity Approach 10
    2.2.2 Absorption Approach 11
    2.2.3 Monetary Approach 12
    2.3 The Differences between Keynesian Approach and Monetary Approach to Balance of Payment 14
    2.4 The Determinant of Balance of Payment 15
    2.5 Other Control Variables Used in Literature for Robustness Test 17
    3. Methodology 19
    3.1 Data and Description of Variables 19
    3.2 Analyses Technique 21
    3.3 Estimation Model 22
    4. The Background of Research Variables 24
    4.1 Balance of Payment in Six ASEAN Countries 24
    4.2 Exchange Rate in Six ASEAN Countries 25
    4.3 GDP in Six ASEAN Countries 26
    4.4 Domestic Credit in Six ASEAN Countries 27
    4.5 Interest Rate in Six ASEAN Countries 28
    4.6 Price in Six ASEAN Countries 29
    5. Result of Estimation 31
    5.1 Findings 31
    6. Conclusion and Policy Implication 36
    Bibliography 37
    Appendix 39
    Data 45

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