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研究生: 林宜佑
Lin, Yi-Yu
論文名稱: 時間序列生成模型應用於股票走勢預測
Time series generative modeling applied to stock trend prediction
指導教授: 蔡炎龍
Tsai, Yen-Lung
口試委員: 蔡炎龍
Tsai, Yen-Lung
陳天進
Chen, Ten-Ging
張宜武
Chang, Yi-Wu
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 理學院 - 應用數學系
Department of Mathematical Sciences
論文出版年: 2024
畢業學年度: 112
語文別: 英文
論文頁數: 47
中文關鍵詞: 深度學習資料增強TSGM時間序列卷積神經網路長短期記憶神經網路孿生神經網路對比學習股票走勢預測
外文關鍵詞: Deep Learning, Data Augmentation, TSGM, Time Series, CNN, LSTM, Siamese Networks, Contrastive Learning, Stock Trend Prediction
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  • 資料增強是深度學習中的關鍵技術和議題。深度學習依賴大量且多樣化的資料來訓練模型,透過人工技術對原始資料進行微幅變化以增加資料量是常用的方法。在時間序列資料方面,資料增強同樣適用,但針對時間序列的資料增強技術目前並不常見,本文嘗試將股票資訊作為時間序列數據,使用時間序列生成模型(TSGM)進行數據增強,並對幾種常見的時間序列數據增強方法進行了比較。我們利用長短期記憶網路、卷積神經網路和孿生對比學習進行預測,在比較它們的結果後,我們發現以股票走勢預測方面來說,對比學習的效果相對突出,而且每種模型在經過資料增強後,預測表現都有所提升。


    Data augmentation is a key technique and topic in deep learning. Deep learning relies on large and diverse datasets to train models. Using manual techniques to slightly alter the original data to increase its size is a common approach. In time series data, data augmentation is also applicable, although it's not widely used. In this article, we used stock information as time series data and applied time series generative modeling (TSGM) for data augmentation. We compared several common time series data augmentation methods. To make predictions, we used long short-term memory network (LSTM), convolutional neural network (CNN) and Siamese contrastive learning. After comparing their results, we found that, for stock trend prediction, contrastive learning was relatively effective. Every model showed improved prediction performance after data augmentation.

    致謝 i
    中文摘要 ii
    Abstract iii
    Contents iv
    List of Figures vi
    1 Introduction 1
    2 Related Work 3
    3 Deep Learning 4
    3.1 Neurons and Neural Networks 5
    3.2 Activation Functions 7
    3.3 Loss Functions 9
    3.4 Gradient Descent 11
    4 Feature Learning 13
    4.1 Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) 13
    4.1.1 Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) 14
    4.2 Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) 18
    4.3 Contrastive Learning 21
    5 Time Series Generative Modeling 25
    5.1 Gaussian Noise 25
    5.2 Window Warping 26
    5.3 Magnitude Warping 27
    5.4 Slice and Shuffle 28
    5.5 VAE 28
    6 Experiments 30
    6.1 Data Summary 31
    6.1.1 Designing Dataset 31
    6.1.2 Normalization 32
    6.1.3 Imbalanced Data 33
    6.2 Models Summary 35
    6.3 Results 36
    6.3.1 Performance of models 37
    6.3.2 Results of Test Data 40
    6.4 Analysis 43
    7 Conclusion 44
    Bibliography 45

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