本研究建構一個三國動態隨機一般均衡（Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium, DSGE）模型，設定兩個完全對稱的區域經濟體，與一個發行強勢貨幣的主導經濟體。為刻劃碳定價所帶來的差異，導入碳稅以及碳關稅機制。模型涵蓋家計單位、國內生產廠商、分銷商與政府部門。此外，考慮Calvo價格僵固性、泰勒法則（Taylor rule）與強勢貨幣定價（Dominant Currency Pricing, DCP）機制，以刻畫碳定價所帶來的互動。本研究透過數值模擬與衝擊反應分析，探討生產力衝擊、貨幣政策衝擊與碳稅等衝擊。模擬結果顯示，在面臨主導國實施碳關稅時，區域經濟體若主動調高國內碳稅，雖短期面臨生產成本增加，但可刺激廠商增加減排努力，降低產品的平均碳密集度，減少被補徵的碳關稅差額，在貿易市場中維持競爭力。相對而言，在強勢貨幣定價架構下，匯率貶值難以如傳統模型般有效帶動出口，對經濟的穩定效果有限。此外，主導國的政策會沿著全球供應鏈產生跨國外溢效果，區域經濟體可能面臨外需疲軟、產出下降與福利損失的窘境。這顯示在全球價值鏈高度聯動的架構下，出口導向國家不應單純將國內碳定價視為額外的成本負擔，若有效制定政策，可將其視為維持出口競爭力的工具。

This paper develops a three-country Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model with two perfectly symmetric regional economies and one dominant economy that issues a dominant currency. To characterize the differences of carbon pricing, carbon tax and carbon tariff are introduced. The model includes households, domestic producers, distributors, and the government sector. Furthermore, Calvo price stickiness, Taylor rule, and the Dominant Currency Pricing (DCP) mechanism are considered. Through numerical simulations and impulse response analysis, this study investigates the dynamic impacts of productivity shocks, monetary policy shocks, and carbon tax shocks. The simulation results show that when facing carbon tariffs, if regional economies proactively raise their domestic carbon taxes, they will face an increase in production costs in the short term. However, this stimulates firms to enhance their efforts on emissions reduction, lower the average carbon intensity of their products, and reduce the carbon tariff, thereby maintaining their competitiveness in the market. Conversely, under DCP, exchange rate depreciation fails to stimulate exports as traditional models predict, limiting its stabilizing effect. Additionally, the dominant country's policies generate spillover effects along the global supply chain. Regional economies may face the predicament of sluggish foreign demand, declining output, and welfare losses. This indicates that under the high connection of global value chains, export-oriented countries should not view domestic carbon pricing as an additional cost burden; with effective policymaking, it can be utilized as a tool to maintain export competitiveness.

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