本研究旨在探討房貸利率對房價指數之影響，資料期間涵蓋2015年1月至2024年6月，並以臺灣六都（臺北市、新北市、桃園市、臺中市、臺南市與高雄市）為實證研究對象，建構具備城市固定效果與工具變數之資料模型進行分析。考量房價變動可能反向影響房貸利率，導致房貸利率與誤差項相關，進而產生內生性問題，本文採用工具變數廣義矩估計法（IV-GMM），並以重貼現率與銀行存款準備金率作為工具變數，以有效處理內生性問題。模型中同時納入工業生產指數、核發建物建造執照宅數、勞動力及重大事件虛擬變數（包含Covid 19、中美貿易戰與俄烏戰爭），以控制潛在的影響因子，降低遺漏變數所造成之估計偏誤，進而提升模型參數估計之一致性與整體解釋力。此外，本文建構交乘項模型，以探討重大事件是否改變房貸利率對房價之影響機制，並透過城市固定效果，以控制不同城市間不隨時間變動之結構性差異，從而提供更具區域辨識度之實證依據與政策建議。

實證結果顯示，房貸利率對房價指數整體具有顯著負向影響，表示資金成本變化將直接影響購屋需求與價格調整。交乘項模型進一步發現，在重大事件期間，房貸利率對房價指數之影響存在異質性效果，房地產市場對資金成本變化的反應強度因事件情境而有所差異。城市固定效果之估計結果顯示存在明顯的區域差異；在控制利率與相關變數後，北部城市呈現較高之基準房價水準，而南部城市則相對較低，反映不同地區之市場結構與基本面條件可能存在差異。本文實證結果支持利率為影響房價之核心變數，並強調在制定房貸與貨幣政策時，應謹慎考量區域結構差異與重大事件對市場反應所產生之異質性影響。因此，未來房貸與利率政策設計，應納入區域分析與事件期間的利率傳導機制評估，以強化政策精準度與市場穩定性。

This study investigates the impact of mortgage interest rates on the housing price index, using monthly panel data from January 2015 to August 2024, with Taiwan’s six major municipalities —Taipei, New Taipei, Taoyuan, Taichung, Tainan, and Kaohsiung —as the empirical subjects. A dynamic panel model incorporating city fixed effects and instrumental variables is constructed to address potential endogeneity, particularly the reverse causality from housing prices to mortgage interest rates, which may induce correlation between mortgage rates and the error term. The analysis employs the instrumental variable generalized method of moments (IV-GMM) estimator, with the rediscount rate and reserve requirement ratio serving as instruments to effectively correct for endogeneity. The model also includes the industrial production index, the number of residential building permits issued, labor force figures, and dummy variables for major events—namely, Covid 19, the U.S.-China trade war, and the Russia-Ukraine war—to control for potential confounding factors, reduce omitted variable bias, and enhance the consistency and explanatory power of the estimates. In addition, interaction models are constructed to examine whether major events alter the mechanism through which mortgage rates affect housing prices, and city-specific analyses are conducted to capture regional heterogeneity in policy transmission and market responsiveness, thereby providing empirical insights with localized policy relevance.

The empirical results indicate that mortgage interest rates exert a significantly negative effect on the housing price index, suggesting that changes in capital cost directly affect housing demand and price adjustments. The interaction model reveals that the effect of mortgage rates on housing prices exhibits heterogeneous effects during major events, reflecting that the responsiveness of the real estate market to capital costs varies depending on contextual shocks. City-level analyses further highlight regional heterogeneity: northern cities exhibit greater responsiveness to interest rate adjustments, while southern cities demonstrate relatively sluggish price responses. Overall, the findings support the theoretical premise that interest rates are a core determinant of housing prices and underscore the importance of accounting for regional structural differences and the heterogeneous effects of major events when formulating housing and monetary policy. Accordingly, future mortgage and interest rate policy design should incorporate region-specific analyses and assess transmission mechanisms during event periods to enhance policy precision and market stability.

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