根據Bass(1969)擴散模式，放寬市場特性不影響創新擴散之假設，並使創

新係數與模仿係數可隨著時間而改變，以行動電話為例，探討ぇ各國採用

行動電話之市場潛能、市場飽和時之普及率以及單年最高採用人數出現的

時間，え市場特性因素如何影響行動電話之擴散，ぉ比較各國擴散模式與

多國擴散模式之解釋能力。研究結果發現：ぇ就本研究所分析的國家，各

國行動電話的市場大小，以美國最大，日本次之，愛爾蘭為最小。而行動

電話的最高普及率以美國與瑞典最高，超過10% ；其餘國家之最高普及率

都不超過 0.4%，顯示行動電話是一種普及率較低的服務。就單年最高採

用人數出現時間來看，只有日本是超過十年，其餘國家均在十年之內，甚

至比利時在第二年就出現採用高峰，顯示行動電話之產品生命週期可能不

是很長。え「市場需求指標」高的國家，有較高的模仿效果；「流動性」

對於創新效果與模仿效果的影響均是負的；「四海胸襟」對於創新與模仿

效果的影響均是正的。ぉ多國擴散模式的解釋能力較各國擴散模式佳，因

此，將市場特性因素加入創新擴散模式中確實有其必要性。

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