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研究生: 吳佩璘
Wu, Pei-Lin
論文名稱: 第三代通貨危機:內生化資本使用率的考量
The Third Generation of Currency Crisis: The Role of Endogenous Capital Utilization
指導教授: 賴景昌
口試委員: 黃俊傑
方中柔
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 社會科學學院 - 經濟學系
Department of Economics
論文出版年: 2020
畢業學年度: 108
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 34
中文關鍵詞: 通貨危機內生化資本使用率保留盈餘稅借貸資金比例外國名目利率
外文關鍵詞: endogenous capital utilization rate, ratio of borrowed capital, foreign nominal interest rate
DOI URL: http://doi.org/10.6814/NCCU202001629
相關次數: 點閱:111下載:1
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  • 本文以 Aghion et al. (2000)所建構的第三代通貨危機為模型基礎,並引入資本使用率至模型中,考量其為外生變數與內生變數之差異,並探討廠商借貸資金的信用限制比例提升、本國政府對廠商課徵固定比率的保留盈餘稅及外國政府將外國的名目利率調降等外生性干擾及外生性政策,是否會因為資本使用率為外生或內生變數而對產出及匯率水準之變動方向有所不同,得到以下結論:
    一、外生資本使用率模型
    廠商借貸資金的信用限制比例提升不會增加通貨危機的發生;當本國政府對廠商課徵固定比率的保留盈餘稅時,會增加通貨危機的發生。而發生通貨危機後,外國政府將外國的名目利率調降後,能順利幫助本國廠商脫離通貨危機。
    二、內生資本使用率模型
    廠商借貸資金的信用限制比例提升及本國政府對廠商課徵固定比率的保留盈餘稅後,其結論與外生資本使用率模型一致。然而,外國政府將外國的名目利率調降後,卻無法幫助廠商脫離通貨危機,此為與外生資本使用率模型相異之處。


    This study employed the third-generation model of currency crises by Aghion et al. (2000); capital utilization rate was applied in the model because it differs according to whether it is an exogenous or endogenous variable. Whether the effect of exogenous interference or policies on output and exchange rate levels changes depending on whether capital utilization rate is an exogenous or endogenous variable was examined; these interference and policies include the increase in the credit limit ratio of companies’ borrowed capital, domestic government imposition of a fixed rate of retained earnings tax on companies, and the reduction of foreign nominal interest rates by foreign governments. The results are as follows:
    (1) Exogenous capital utilization rate model Increase in the credit limit ratio of companies’ borrowed capital does not increase the likelihood of currency crisis occurrence, but a domestic government’s imposition of a fixed rate of retained earnings tax on companies does. After a currency crisis occurs, reduction of foreign nominal interest rates by foreign governments enables domestic companies to mitigate the crisis.
    (2) Endogenous capital utilization rate model Similar to the findings in the exogenous model, increase in the credit limit ratio of companies’ borrowed capital does not increase the likelihood of currency crisis occurrence, whereas a domestic government’s imposition of a fixed rate of retained earnings tax on companies does. However, reduction of foreign nominal interest rates by foreign governments does not mitigate domestic companies’ vulnerability to the crisis.

    第一章 緒論 1
    第一節 研究動機 1
    第二節 文獻回顧 3
    第三節 本文架構 5
    第二章 一般化模型 6
    第三章 外生資本使用率模型 13
    第四章 內生資本使用率模型 22
    第五章 結論 30
    參考文獻 31
    附錄 A 33

    圖目錄
    圖一 IPLM 線 8
    圖二 𝑊線 12
    圖三 好的情況之均衡 15
    圖四 壞的情況之均衡 16
    外生資本使用率模型:
    圖五 借貸比例提升之均衡 17
    圖六 課徵保留盈餘稅之均衡 19
    圖七 調降外國名目利率之均衡(壞的情況) 21
    內生資本使用率模型:
    圖八 借貸比例提升之均衡 26
    圖九 課徵保留盈餘稅之均衡 28
    圖十 調降外國名目利率之均衡(壞的情況) 29

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