跳到主要內容

簡易檢索 / 詳目顯示

回結果列表
研究生： 史愛理
Strom, Eric Alexander
論文名稱： 台灣供電系統可靠度分析： 跨國比較
Reliability Analysis of Taiwan's Power System: A Cross-Country Comparison
指導教授： 張四立
Chang, Ssu-Li
學位類別： 碩士
Master
系所名稱： 國際事務學院 - 國際研究英語碩士學位學程(IMPIS)
International Master's Program in International Studies(IMPIS)
論文出版年： 2016
畢業學年度： 104
語文別： 英文
論文頁數： 94
中文關鍵詞： 台電 、供電系統 、跨國分析 、可靠指標
外文關鍵詞： Taipower Co., Power System, Cross-country Analysis, reliability
相關次數： 點閱：277  下載：20 
分享至:
查詢本校圖書館目錄 查詢臺灣博碩士論文知識加值系統 勘誤回報

    • 本論文範圍為台灣供電系統可靠分析而審查長期電力消費發展，發展新供電可靠指標，而拿新指標來跟北美洲供電系統做比較。本論文以現有的台電公司電力調度處建立新分析架構來做跨國分析。然而本分析用新架構來審查現有的台灣各政府單位預期電力消費發展計劃。

    This thesis examines reliability and long term planning in Taiwan’s power system by developing new metrics to evaluate existing systems, and then comparing them with comparable data from North America. The study involved series of spreadsheets retrieved from Taipower’s Power Dispatch Office to determine historical reliability for all generation in Taiwan, deriving a new metric to analyze that data, and then comparing it to North America Generating Availability Data System figures. The study then uses those figures to evaluate existing long term electrical usage projections from different Taiwanese government bodies. The study concludes that while Taiwan’s existing power systems have comparably high reliability, excessive politicization of electricity and lack of political autonomy in energy administration hinder Taiwan’s long term electrical prospects. Additionally, existing evaluations of long-term needs are overly optimistic and do not account for political changes.

    Chapter 1: Background and Purpose of Study 1
    1.1: Purpose 1
    1.2: Why Taiwan? - Special case 2
    Taiwan’s Energy Security 5
    Taiwan’s electrical system by the numbers 6
    1.3 Supply balance 6
    Capacity Factors: Difference between installed capacity and actual production 14
    Different types of reserves 16
    1.4 The Limits of Renewables: The Case of Germany’s Energiewende 18
    Chapter 2: Literature Review 22
    2.1: The Link between GDP and Electricity consumption 22
    2.2: Policies of Taiwan’s Major Political Parties 23
    2.2.1 KMT Policies 23
    2.2.2 DPP Policies 23
    What would 10% actually look like? 26
    Chapter 3: Methodology 27
    3.1 Analysis 29
    3.2 Data sources 29
    3.3 Model Construction and Preliminary Analysis 30
    3.4 Preliminary Results 34
    3.5 Capacity Factor Vs Availability Factor 36
    3.6 Discussion 37
    3.7 Problems with Taipower’s Numbers 37
    Chapter 4: Results 42
    4.1 Initial Observations 42
    4.2 International Comparison 42
    4.3 Early Conclusions 45
    4.4 Limitations of the AIA/AIG Model 46
    4.5 Projections 47
    4.6 How Much Operating reserve would Taiwan need? 51
    4.7 Further Study 52
    4.8 Qualitative analysis: 53
    4.9 Taipower’s Double Edged Sword 53
    4.10 Resolving political deadlock: 56
    Chapter 5: Conclusions 59
    Research Questions: 59
    Final Remarks 61
    Bibliography 62
    Appendices 71
    Appendix 1 June Preliminary Analysis 71
    Appendix 2 Combined AIA/AIG Results from all sources 72
    Appendix 3 Source Raw Data and Individual AIA/AIG Calculations 73
    3.1 Taipower Thermal Generators 73
    3.2 Taipower Nuclear Generators 75
    3.3 Taipower Hydro Generators 76
    3.4 IPP and Cogeneration Extrapolations 78
    3.5 Taipower Solar 79
    3.6 IPP Solar 80
    3.7 IPP Wind 81
    3.8 Taipower Wind 82
    Appendix 4 Projections 85
    4.1 Taipower Projections 85
    4.2 Taipower Projections - 100% Nuclear Availability Scenario 87
    4.3 MOEA Projections 89
    4.4 MOEA Projections - 100% Nuclear Availability Scenario 92

    Figures and Tables
    Figure 1.3.1: Spinning reserve illustration, Taipower. Illustrates load curve during July 15th 2013 10
    Deceptive Numbers: Co-Gen distortions in statistics 11
    Figure 1.3.2: Taiwan Installed Generating Capacity by Fuel Type 2015 (Source MOEA BOE Energy Statistics Handbook 2015) 12
    Figure 1.3.3: Taiwan Net Renewable Installed capacity by source in MW - 2015 (MOEA) 13
    Figure 1.3.4: From 15-06-2016 at 5AM. Most units under environmental or transmission restraints 13
    Figure 1.3.5: Taiwan Total Electricity Generation by fuel, 2015. Data from MOEA BOE Energy Statistics handbook 15
    Figure 1.3.6: Taiwan Net Renewable Generation Breakdown by Source, 2015. Data from MOEA BOE Energy Statistics handbook 15
    Figure 1.4.1: Electricity production in Germany in week 26, 2011 (Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE) 19
    Figure 1.4.2: Electricity production in Germany in week 26, 2016 (Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE) 19
    Figure 1.4.3 Electricity Import and Export of Germany in week 26, 2011, positive numbers indicate imports (Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE) 20
    Figure 1.4.4 Electricity Import and Export of Germany in week 26, 2016, positive numbers indicate imports (Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE) 20
    Figure 2.2.2: GDP and Electricity Consumption Growth Rates Compared (MOEA 2014) 25
    Preliminary Quantitative Analysis: 31
    Equation 3.3.1 31
    Equation 3.3.2 31
    Equation 3.3.3: Effective Availability Factor 32
    Equation 3.3.4 Average individual generation was calculated as follows: 33
    39
    Figure 3.7.1: Taiwan Capacity factors by source, 2015. Data sourced from Taipower, Data.gov.tw, and MOEA Energy Statistics handbook 2015 39
    Figure 3.7.2. Taiwan Average availability by source (In KW) - 2015. Note that this uses Average Individual Generation instead of average individual availability for wind and solar sources. 40
    Figure 3.7.3; Taiwan Average Availability (KW) by source, using AIG for wind, solar, and cogen 41
    Table 4.2.1: Taiwan Availability Factors compared to US NERC GADS data. 44
    Table 4.2.1: Taiwan 2015 Capacity Factors compared to NERC GADS Net Capacity Factors. 44
    Table 4.2.3: Taiwan 2015 figures compared to seasonal GADS availability 45
    Figure 4.5.1: Comparison of MOEA 2014 and Taipower 2016 long term development reports 48
    Figure 4.5.2: Taiwan 2015 Average Availability Assuming 100% Nuclear Availability 49
    Figure 4.5.3: Projection Scenarios Assuming 100% Nuclear Availability 51

    1% GDP growth in Taiwan “unlikely.” (n.d.). Retrieved July 4, 2016, from http://www.chinapost.com.tw/taiwan/business/2016/05/02/464933/1-GDP.htm
    2.16.886.101.20003. (2015, January 23). New electricity pricing formula to promote industry’s sustainable growth [text/html]. Retrieved June 16, 2016, from http://www.ey.gov.tw/en/News_Content.aspx?n=1C6028CA080A27B3&s=A76600DB893AD52E
    Allcott, H., Collard-Wexler, A., & O’Connell, S. D. (2014). How Do Electricity Shortages Affect Industry? Evidence from India (Working Paper No. 19977). National Bureau of Economic Research. Retrieved from http://www.nber.org/papers/w19977
    Banks, F. E. (2007). The political economy of world energy : an introductory textbook. Singapore; Hackensack, N.J.: World Scientific.
    Cai, Minchun. (2016, June 22). 台政府公布再生能源目標，太陽能定調20GW_集邦光伏網. Retrieved June 28, 2016, from http://pv.energytrend.com.tw/news/20160622-14063.html
    Chen, Wei-han. (2016, June 14). Reactor restart chance “virtually zero” - Taipei Times. Taipei Times. Retrieved from http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2016/06/14/2003648582
    Ela, E., Milligan, M. R., & Kirby, B. (2011). Operating Reserves and Variable Generation: A comprehensive review of current strategies, studies, and fundamental research on the impact that increased penetration of variable renewable generation has on power system operating reserves. National Renewable Energy Laboratory.
    Electricity consumption per capita - Country Comparison - TOP 100. (n.d.). Retrieved July 25, 2016, from http://www.indexmundi.com/g/r.aspx?t=100&v=81000&l=en
    Electricity rates cut by 9.56% from April 1: MOEA. (n.d.). Retrieved June 16, 2016, from http://www.chinapost.com.tw/taiwan/business/2016/03/16/460907/Electricity-rates.htm
    Energy Statistics Handbook 2015. (n.d.). Bureau of Energy, Ministry of Economic Affairs.
    Europe’s dirty secret the unwelcome renaissance. (2013). Economist Economist (United Kingdom), 406(8817). Retrieved from http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21569039-europes-energy-policy-delivers-worst-all-possible-worlds-unwelcome-renaissance
    Fang, Jay. (2016, June 10). Taipower’s “power shortage” myth - Taipei Times. Taipei Times. Taipei. Retrieved from http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/editorials/archives/2016/06/10/2003648267
    Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy, Germany. (2014, June 27). Infografik: Aufwind für Strom aus Erneuerbaren. Retrieved July 4, 2016, from http://www.bmwi-energiewende.de/EWD/Redaktion/Newsletter/2014/20/Meldung/infografik-aufwind-fuer-strom-aus-erneuerbaren.html
    Ferry, T. (2015, September 15). Taiwan’s Energy Dilemma: Emission Reductions vs. Dwindling Supply. Retrieved July 4, 2016, from http://topics.amcham.com.tw/2015/09/carbon-abatement-and-energy-supply/
    Ferry, T. (n.d.). Is Renewable Energy the Way Forward for Taiwan? - Taiwan Business TOPICS. Retrieved June 16, 2016, from http://topics.amcham.com.tw/2015/09/is-renewable-energy-the-way-forward-for-taiwan/
    Fisher-Vanden, K., Mansur, E. T., & Wang, Q. (Juliana). (2015). Electricity shortages and firm productivity: Evidence from China’s industrial firms. Journal of Development Economics, 114, 172–188. http://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2015.01.002
    Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE. (n.d.). Electricity production in Germany | Energy Charts. Retrieved June 16, 2016, from https://www.energy-charts.de/power.htm
    GADS Data Reporting Instructions – January 2015. (2015).
    Generating Availability Data System (GADS). (n.d.). Retrieved June 29, 2016, from http://www.nerc.com/pa/RAPA/gads/Pages/default.aspx
    Hsu, E. (2014, December 29). FEATURE: Taiwan regressing in biofuel, waste oil policy - Taipei Times. Taipei Times. Retrieved from http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2014/12/29/2003607855/2
    Hsu, Y.-Y., Lee, Y.-S., Jien, J.-D., Liang, C. C., Chen, K.-K., Lai, T.-S., & Lee, T.-E. (1990). Operating reserve and reliability analysis of the Taiwan power system. IEE Proceedings C Generation, Transmission and Distribution, 137(5), 349. http://doi.org/10.1049/ip-c.1990.0048
    Huang, Y., Bor, Y. J., & Peng, C.-Y. (2011). The long-term forecast of Taiwan’s energy supply and demand: LEAP model application. Energy Policy, 39(11), 6790–6803. http://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2010.10.023
    Impacts of Solar Power on Operating Reserve Requirements (Fact Sheet). (2012). Washington, D.C. : United States. Dept. of Energy. Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy ;
    Installed power in Germany | Energy Charts. (n.d.). Retrieved June 16, 2016, from https://www.energy-charts.de/power_inst.htm
    Institute for 21st Century Energy. (2012). International index of energy security risk : assessing risk in a global energy market. International Index of Energy Security Risk : Assessing Risk in a Global Energy Market.
    Kuomintang News Network. (n.d.). Retrieved June 16, 2016, from http://www1.kmt.org.tw/english/page.aspx?type=article&mnum=112&anum=17837&kw=electricity
    Lassen, J. (2000, September 10). Power play - Taipei Times. Retrieved July 17, 2016, from http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/feat/archives/2000/09/10/0000052791/1
    Laws & Regulations Database and The Republic of China. (n.d.). Retrieved June 15, 2016, from http://law.moj.gov.tw/Eng/LawClass/LawAll.aspx?PCode=J0130002
    Li, L. (n.d.). Taipower to cut electricity price 7.34% on average - Taipei Times. Retrieved June 16, 2016, from http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/biz/archives/2015/03/21/2003614014
    Liao, H.-C., & Jhou, S. T. (n.d.). Taiwan’s Severe Energy Security Challenges. Retrieved July 4, 2016, from http://www.brookings.edu/research/opinions/2013/09/12-taiwan-energy-security-liao
    Liu, Lier. (2016, June 22). 【民報劉黎兒專欄】全民一起踢爆台灣最大的黑箱─電力黑箱 | 即時新聞 | 20160622. Retrieved July 28, 2016, from http://www.appledaily.com.tw/realtimenews/article/new/20160622/892006/
    Maintaining natural-gas fired baseload plants. (n.d.). Retrieved June 16, 2016, from http://www.power-eng.com/articles/print/volume-117/issue-10/departments1/gas-generation/maintaining-natural-gas-fired-baseload-plants.html
    Matthews, J. A. (n.d.). Concentrating Solar Power – China’s New Solar Frontier —(CSP) | The Asia-Pacific Journal: Japan Focus. Retrieved July 5, 2016, from http://apjjf.org/-John_A_-Mathews/3946
    Mei-Chih Hu. (n.d.). Renewable Energy vs. Nuclear Power: Taiwan’s energy future in light of Chinese, German and Japanese experience since 3.11 —3.11 | The Asia-Pacific Journal: Japan Focus. Retrieved July 5, 2016, from http://apjjf.org/-John_A_-Mathews/3954
    Ministry of Economic Affairs 經濟部能源局(Bureau of Energy. (2012, March 22). 2. 台電電廠現況 [文字]. Retrieved June 15, 2016, from http://web3.moeaboe.gov.tw/ecw/populace/content/Content.aspx?menu_id=997
    NERC Short-Term Special Assessment Gas Electric_Final.pdf. (n.d.). Retrieved from http://www.nerc.com/pa/RAPA/ra/Reliability%20Assessments%20DL/NERC%20Short-Term%20Special%20Assessment%20Gas%20Electric_Final.pdf
    North American Electric Reliability Corporation. (n.d.). Generating Unit Statistical Brochure 1.
    Nunez, C. (2014, September 25). Switch to Natural Gas Won’t Reduce Carbon Emissions Much, Study Finds. Retrieved June 16, 2016, from http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/energy/2014/09/140924-natural-gas-impact-on-emissions/
    Oil expected from Chad as Taiwan strives for energy self-sufficiency | Economics | FOCUS TAIWAN - CNA ENGLISH NEWS. (n.d.). Retrieved June 16, 2016, from http://focustaiwan.tw/news/aeco/201510250017.aspx
    operating reserve management guideline - 20130718.pdf. (n.d.). Retrieved from http://www.nerc.com/comm/oc/reliability%20guideline%20dl/operating%20reserve%20management%20guideline%20-%2020130718.pdf
    Operating_Reserve_Management_Guideline_20131018_Final.pdf. (n.d.). Retrieved from http://www.nerc.com/comm/OC/Reliability%20Guideline%20DL/Operating_Reserve_Management_Guideline_20131018_Final.pdf
    Pao, H., & Lee, T. (2004). Forecasting the Consumption for Electricity in Taiwan. In ICEB (pp. 1143–1146). Retrieved from http://iceb.nccu.edu.tw/proceedings/2004/Paper/EN139-paper.pdf
    PJM - Monthly Equivalent Forced Outage Rates. (n.d.). Retrieved July 5, 2016, from http://www.pjm.com/markets-and-operations/energy/real-time/historical-bid-data/eford.aspx
    Planning Reserve Margin. (n.d.). Retrieved June 29, 2016, from http://www.nerc.com/pa/RAPA/ri/Pages/PlanningReserveMargin.aspx
    Snapshot. (n.d.-a). Retrieved from http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2014/12/29/2003607855/2
    Snapshot. (n.d.-b). Retrieved from http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/feat/archives/2000/09/10/0000052791/1
    Snapshot. (n.d.-c). Retrieved from http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2016/06/14/2003648582
    Snapshot. (n.d.-d). Retrieved from http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/editorials/archives/2016/06/10/2003648267/1
    Snapshot. (n.d.-e). Retrieved from http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/biz/archives/2015/03/21/2003614014
    Taipower cautions that electricity supplies low due to recent heat wave. (n.d.). Retrieved June 28, 2016, from http://www.chinapost.com.tw/taiwan/national/national-news/2016/06/02/468058/Taipower-cautions.htm
    Taiwan cancels biogas-from-food waste project due to lack of technology : Biofuels Digest. (n.d.). Retrieved from http://www.biofuelsdigest.com/bdigest/2014/09/22/taiwan-cancels-biogas-from-food-waste-project-due-to-lack-of-technology/
    Taiwan electricity rates to fall almost 10% this year | Economics | FOCUS TAIWAN - CNA ENGLISH NEWS. (n.d.). Retrieved June 16, 2016, from http://focustaiwan.tw/news/aeco/201509090011.aspx
    Taiwan Power Company. (2016). 105 年長期電源開發方案. Retrieved from http://www.taipower.com.tw/content/new_info/images/105%E5%B9%B4%E6%96%B9%E6%A1%88%E5%A0%B1%E5%91%8A.pdf
    Taiwan wastes electricity because it is cheap: minister. (n.d.). Retrieved June 16, 2016, from http://www.chinapost.com.tw/taiwan/business/2013/08/31/387796/Taiwan-wastes.htm
    Turton, M. (2013, September 2). The View from Taiwan: Electricity price woes continue. Retrieved from http://michaelturton.blogspot.com/2013/09/electricity-price-woes-continue.html
    Turton, M. (n.d.). U.S. Exports to Taiwan of Fuel Ethanol (Thousand Barrels). Retrieved June 21, 2016, from https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=M_EPOOXE_EEX_NUS-NTW_MBBL&f=M
    US Energy Information Administration. (n.d.). Taiwan Exports of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products by Destination. Retrieved June 21, 2016, from https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_move_expc_dc_NUS-NTW_mbbl_a.htm
    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (n.d.-a). Reserve electric generating capacity helps keep the lights on - Today in Energy -. Retrieved June 16, 2016, from http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=6510
    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (n.d.-b). South China Sea - International - Analysis -. Retrieved June 16, 2016, from https://www.eia.gov/beta/international/regions-topics.cfm?RegionTopicID=SCS
    U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (n.d.-c). World Oil Transit Chokepoints - International - Analysis - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). Retrieved June 16, 2016, from https://www.eia.gov/beta/international/regions-topics.cfm?RegionTopicID=WOTC
    World Nuclear Association. (2016, May). Safety of Nuclear Reactors. Retrieved July 17, 2016, from http://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/safety-and-security/safety-of-plants/safety-of-nuclear-power-reactors.aspx
    World Nuclear Association. (n.d.). Nuclear Power in Germany. Retrieved June 15, 2016, from http://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/countries-g-n/germany.aspx
    Yao, J.-H. (2001). 2-5_YaoJuiHsiang.pdf. Bangkok. Retrieved from http://www.egcfe.ewg.apec.org/publications/proceedings/ESI/ESI_Bangkok_2001/2-5_YaoJuiHsiang.pdf
    可靠度指標資訊系統. (n.d.). Retrieved June 18, 2016, from https://fmaw.itri.org.tw/PGSRAIS/4-3-1.html
    台灣能源: 免費核能電子書及洪秀柱謝函. (n.d.). Retrieved from http://taiwanenergy.blogspot.com/2015/07/blog-post.html
    台灣電力公司_太陽光電購電實績. (n.d.). Retrieved July 24, 2016, from http://data.gov.tw/node/32986
    台灣電力公司_汽電共生購電實績. (n.d.). Retrieved July 24, 2016, from http://data.gov.tw/node/32985
    台灣電力公司_風力購電實績. (n.d.). Retrieved July 24, 2016, from http://data.gov.tw/node/32987
    台灣電力股份有限公司. (2012a, October 25). 台灣電力股份有限公司 [網頁]. Retrieved June 15, 2016, from http://www.taipower.com.tw/content/new_info/new_info_in.aspx?LinkID=27
    台灣電力股份有限公司. (2012b, October 25). 各種發電方式之發電成本 [網頁]. Retrieved July 28, 2016, from http://www.taipower.com.tw/content/govern/govern05.aspx?YM1=10414&YM2=10506&YM3=10506
    台灣電力股份有限公司. (2016, July 4). 限電的種類 [網頁]. Retrieved July 4, 2016, from http://www.taipower.com.tw/content/new_info/new_info-d23.aspx?LinkID=23
    台灣電力股份有限公司. (n.d.-a). 備用容量之說明. Retrieved June 16, 2016, from http://www.taipower.com.tw/content/new_info/new_info-c33.aspx?LinkID=13
    台灣電力股份有限公司. (n.d.-b). 台灣電力股份有限公司 Historical Operating Reserve. Retrieved June 21, 2016, from http://data.taipower.com.tw/opendata/apply/file/d003002/001.txt
    台灣電力股份有限公司(first). (2012c, October 25). 台灣電力股份有限公司 [網頁]. Retrieved June 16, 2016, from http://www.taipower.com.tw/content/new_info/new_info_in.aspx?LinkID=27
    吳象元. (n.d.). 和平電廠跳機 台電表示進入「限電警戒」 - The News Lens 關鍵評論網. Retrieved July 4, 2016, from http://www.thenewslens.com/article/19616
    政策綱領 - 中國國民黨全球資訊網 KMT Official Webstie. (n.d.). Retrieved July 4, 2016, from http://www.kmt.org.tw/p/blog-page_3.html
    經濟部工業局. (2008, May 19). 電動機車產業網--車輛維修資訊. Retrieved June 20, 2016, from http://www.lev.org.tw/subsidy/default.aspx
    經濟部能源局(Bureau of Energy, M. of E. A. (2012a, January 18). 全國長期負載預測與電源開發規劃摘要報告 [文字]. Retrieved June 21, 2016, from http://web3.moeaboe.gov.tw/ECW/populace/content/Content.aspx?menu_id=65
    經濟部能源局(Bureau of Energy, M. of E. A. (2012b, March 22). 2. 台電電廠現況 [文字]. Retrieved June 16, 2016, from http://web3.moeaboe.gov.tw/ecw/populace/content/Content.aspx?menu_id=997
    財團法人新境界文教基金會. (2014). 民進黨的新能源政策. Retrieved from http://dppnff.tw/uploads/20140306011032_4976.pdf
    資料資源 | 政府資料開放平臺. (n.d.). Retrieved June 21, 2016, from http://data.gov.tw/node/gov/resource/2522

    QR CODE
    :::