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研究生: 莊旭明
Chuang, Shiu Ming
論文名稱: 跨國金融危機擴散效果之分析-以Copula模型為分析方法
Analysis of transnational financial crisis contagion effect-copula approach
指導教授: 毛維凌
Mao, Wei Lin, Ph.D.
學位類別: 碩士
Master
系所名稱: 社會科學學院 - 經濟學系
Department of Economics
論文出版年: 2012
畢業學年度: 100
語文別: 中文
論文頁數: 47
中文關鍵詞: 金融危機關聯結構函數蔓延效果尾端相關性
外文關鍵詞: financial crisis, copula, contagion effect, tail dependence
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  • 本篇論文主要是想探討在2008年全球金融危機發生後,美國與亞洲國家股票市場之間的相關性是否發生明顯的改變。藉由2005年至2012年美國、新加坡、台灣、日本和泰國的股票市場資料,來觀察各國股票市場的相關性是否產生不對稱的現象,首先檢定美國對其他四個國家有無產生蔓延效果,並藉由不同期間的資料來檢定蔓延效果以看出各國之間是否在極端的情況下產生尾端相關性,最後,再使用不同的關聯結構函數配適出最適合資料的模型。


    The main idea of this paper is to show whether or not that stock market between U.S and Asian country has been obviously changed after 2008 financial crisis. For the sake of observing if there is or not occurred inconsistence phenomenon in each country’s stock market, we use the information from U.S、Singapore、Taiwan、Japan and Thailand since 2005 to 2012. First, look in that if U.S has contagion affects to other four countries and, checkup the contagion effects through the information from different period to find the tail dependence in extreme situation. Finally, to dispose a model which is the most suitable for the information by using different Copula functions.


    中文摘要 1
    英文摘要 2
    第一章 緒論 3
    第一節 研究動機與目的 3
    第二節 研究範圍與資料來源 5
    第三節 研究流程論文架構 6
    第二章 文獻回顧 7
    第一節 Contagion 7
    第二節 Copula 8
    第三章 研究方法 9
    第一節 Contagion之測度檢定 9
    第二節 Copula方法及其定理之介紹 10
    第三節 經驗累積分配函數(Empirical CDF) 12
    第四節 實證模型建構 13
    第四章 實證結果與分析 15
    第一節 基本相關分析 15
    第二節 Contagion檢定結果 20
    第三節 Copula模型選擇 24
    第五章 結論 26
    Appendix 27
    A. Introduction of Copulas 27
    B. Syntax 28
    Reference 41

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