近年來，人工智慧（AI）技術之快速發展帶動全球 AI 伺服器市場呈現爆發性成長，2024 至 2030 年之年複合成長率（CAGR）預估介於 28% 至 39%。此一產業趨勢為臺灣筆記型電腦（NB）原始設計製造（ODM）廠商帶來結構性之轉型契機與挑戰。本研究以A公司為個案對象，探討其從 NB ODM 廠商跨入 AI 伺服器市場之策略分析與規劃。
本研究採用個案研究法，運用 PEST 總體環境分析、Porter 五力分析、價值鏈分析、VRIO 模型、動態能力理論、SECI 知識螺旋模型、策略分析整合架構（含市場-能力-價值活動模型）及 SWOT/TOWS 矩陣等策略管理理論架構，由外而內地系統性分析A公司所面臨之外部環境、產業競爭結構及內部資源條件。其中，動態能力理論與多源 SECI 知識螺旋之結合，使本研究不僅分析A公司之能力重組方向，更具體闡述跨領域知識轉化之多源整合機制（外部技術夥伴、集團子公司、外部招聘、NB 既有元能力四源並行）。研究資料來源包括市場研究機構報告、公司公開資訊、產業媒體報導，以及研究者任職於A公司之實務觀察。
研究結果顯示：（一）全球 AI 伺服器市場之總體環境整體有利，CSP 資本支出持續擴張與液冷散熱技術主流化為主要機會（AI 晶片液冷滲透率自 2024 年 14% 躍升至 2025 年 33%、2026 年預估 47%；TrendForce, 2025），中美科技戰與上下游議價能力強勢為主要威脅；（二）A公司之大規模 SMT 製造與管理體系可移轉至伺服器業務，惟 NB 設計研發能力與供應鏈關係之可移轉性低於原預期，整體能力相似度應審慎評估為「中等」而非「中高」；液冷散熱能力本身已非差異化來源（鴻海透過鴻準 [2354] 已具備 CDU 與液冷零件 8-9 成自製率），A公司之真正差異化在於集團專業 PSU 子公司（B公司）與自主液冷開發、伺服器系統設計三者之「水電系統三位一體整合」能力——此為其他 ODM 集團短期內難以複製之獨特資源組合；（三）A公司已在動態能力之感知與掌握面展現積極行動，組織轉型仍為持續推進中之挑戰；（四）TOWS 矩陣推導出A公司應採取「水電系統三位一體整合差異化、分階段擴張」之總體策略。
基於上述分析，本研究提出三階段策略規劃：短期（2025-2026）以鞏固 Dell 訂單交付、液冷產品量產及美國德州產線啟動為核心；中期（2027-2029）以突破 CSP 直供客戶、液冷自主零組件規模化量產及售後服務體系建立為重點；長期（2030-2032）以技術代際領先布局與新興客戶提前押注為市佔率提升機制，目標達成 AI 伺服器 ODM 前三大。研究運用敏感度分析推估，以 ODM 可觸及市場佔全球伺服器市場 60-65% 為基準（IDC、DIGITIMES，2025-2026），2030 年伺服器營收區間為 7,500-10,200 億元。上述策略方向已獲 2025 年實績與 2026 年第一季初步成果驗證（伺服器營收較 2025 Q4 翻倍、A公司於 GTC 2026 推出 ONE Integrated Solution）。本研究之分析架構與策略建議，可供A公司經營決策層及面臨類似轉型情境之臺灣 ODM 廠商參考。
本研究並將分析延伸至 AI PC 新型算力平台與邊緣運算，以 Ansoff 風險遞增路徑（新產品開發→市場滲透→多角化）整合短、中、長期策略；並針對 ODM 不可模仿性偏低之結構性課題，提出以架構知識文件化與制度化師徒制建構長期護城河之組織方案。

The rapid advancement of artificial intelligence (AI) technology has driven explosive growth in the global AI server market, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 28% to 39% from 2024 to 2030. This industry trend creates structural transformation opportunities and challenges for Taiwanese notebook (NB) original design manufacturers (ODMs). This study uses Compal Electronics (referred to as Company A) as a case to examine its strategic analysis and planning for entering the AI server market.
Employing a case study methodology, this research applies multiple strategic management frameworks—including PEST analysis, Porter's Five Forces, value chain analysis, the VRIO model, dynamic capabilities theory, the SECI knowledge spiral model, an integrated strategic analysis framework (including the market-capability-value activity model), and the SWOT/TOWS matrix—to systematically analyze Company A's external environment, industry competitive structure, and internal resource conditions in an outside-in approach. The integration of dynamic capabilities with a multi-source SECI knowledge spiral (combining external technology partners, group subsidiaries, external recruitment, and meta-capabilities from the existing NB business as four parallel sources) enables this study to articulate not only the direction of capability reconfiguration but also the concrete mechanisms of cross-domain knowledge integration. Data sources include market research reports, company disclosures, industry media coverage, and the author's practical observations as Company A's employee.
The findings reveal that: (1) the macro-environment is largely favorable, with CSP capital expenditure expansion and the mainstreaming of liquid cooling technology representing key opportunities (AI chip liquid cooling penetration rising from 14% in 2024 to a projected 47% in 2026; TrendForce, 2025), while US-China tech tensions and strong upstream/downstream bargaining power constitute major threats; (2) Company A's large-scale SMT manufacturing and management systems are transferable, but the transferability of NB R&D capabilities and supply chain relationships is lower than initially expected, with overall capability similarity revised from "moderately high" to "moderate"; liquid cooling capability alone no longer constitutes differentiation (Foxconn, through Foxconn Technology [2354], has achieved 80-90% in-house production of CDUs and liquid cooling components), and Company A's genuine differentiation lies in the "tri-fold integration of cooling, power, and system" enabled by its group subsidiary Company B—a leading server PSU vendor—combined with proprietary liquid cooling development and server system design, an integrated resource combination that other ODM groups cannot replicate in the short term; (3) Company A has demonstrated active progress in the sensing and seizing dimensions of dynamic capabilities, while organizational transformation remains an ongoing challenge; (4) the TOWS matrix yields a recommended overall strategy of "tri-fold integration-based differentiation with phased expansion."
Based on these findings, this study proposes a three-phase strategic plan: the short term (2025–2026) focuses on Dell order fulfillment, liquid cooling product mass production, and the launch of the U.S. Texas manufacturing site; the medium term (2027–2029) emphasizes breakthrough into CSP direct-supply customers, scale production of proprietary liquid cooling components, and the establishment of an after-sales service system; the long term (2030–2032) leverages technology generation leadership and early bets on emerging customers as the market share growth mechanism, targeting top-three positioning among AI server ODMs. Sensitivity analysis based on the assumption that the ODM-addressable market accounts for 60-65% of the global server market (IDC, DIGITIMES, 2025–2026) projects 2030 server revenue in the range of NT$750 to NT$1,020 billion. These strategic directions have been preliminarily validated by 2025 actual results and Q1 2026 performance (server revenue more than doubled QoQ, and Company A unveiled the ONE Integrated Solution at GTC 2026). The analytical framework and strategic recommendations developed in this study may serve as a reference for Company A's leadership and for other Taiwanese ODMs facing similar transformation contexts.
This study further extends the analysis to the emerging AI PC computing platform and edge computing, integrating short-, mid-, and long-term strategies through a risk-ascending Ansoff path (new product development, market penetration, and diversification). To address the structural challenge of low inimitability in the ODM industry, it also proposes an organizational approach that builds a long-term moat through the codification of architectural knowledge and an institutionalized mentorship system.

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