勞動參數的變動、外籍移工人數之消長與基本工資之間的關係錯綜複雜，基本工資的依時性（time-dependence）連帶影響就業市場的活絡，就業市場的供需平衡又與引進外籍移工、基本工資與本國勞工參與勞動之意願息息相關。本文應用時間序列計量方法，檢驗1997年至2018年全國整體外籍移工人數、失聯移工人數、基本工資、失業率與勞動參與率五項變數之間的互動關聯性，實證結果顯示，短期（最適落後期為兩期）內只有外籍移工人數、失聯移工人數、失業率與勞動參與率四項變數之間存在互動關係，基本工資不受其他變數影響，四項變數中，失業率與外籍移工人數存在雙向的負向Granger回饋關係，失聯移工人數正向Granger影響勞動參與率。長期則存在1個以上的共整合關係（cointegration），當存在1個共整合關係時，勞動參與率、外籍移工人數、失聯移工人數與基本工資脫離長期均衡關係上升時，失業率會下降以恢復長期均衡；當存在2個共整合關係時，勞動參與率恢復長期均衡的方向會與1個共整合關係的方向相反。本文可提供產、官、學及勞方了解基本工資、外籍移工政策與就業市場之間可能的互動關係，做為擬定相關政策之參考。

The relationships among labor market dynamism, minimum wage and the number of foreign workers are complicated. Time-dependent adjustment in minimum wage would affect labor market dynamics, while labor market equilibrium is closely related to the introduction of foreign workers, minimum wage and workers’ willingness to work. This paper empirically investigated the interactions among Taiwan’s minimum wage, the number of foreign workers, the number of missing foreign workers, unemployment rate and labor participation rate using time series data for the period 1997-2018. Johansen cointegration test result supported the existence of long-run equilibrium relationship among five variables. The long-run equilibrium reported that the increase of minimum wage, labor participation rate, the number of foreign workers and missing foreign workers would lead to the decrease of unemployment rate. Additionally, the Granger causality test based on vector error correction model revealed that there is a bidirectional short-run causalities between unemployment rate and the number of foreign workers, and that there is a unidirectional short-run causalities running from the number of missing foreign workers to labor participation rate. This paper shed light on the interactions among labor market, minimum wage and the foreign worker policy, and informed the related policy-makers of statistics in terms of labor economics.

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