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| 研究生： |
邱建凱 Chiou, Chien Kai |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱： |
反武器擴散:資料採礦技術於我國戰略性高科技貨品出口管制之應用 Counter proliferation: the application of data mining technologies in Taiwan strategic high-tech commodities export control management |
| 指導教授： |
冷則剛
Leng, Tse Kang |
| 學位類別： |
碩士
Master |
| 系所名稱： |
商學院 - 國際經營管理英語碩士學位學程(IMBA) International MBA Program College of Commerce(IMBA) |
| 論文出版年： | 2011 |
| 畢業學年度： | 100 |
| 語文別： | 英文 |
| 論文頁數： | 79 |
| 中文關鍵詞： | 反武器擴散 、資料採礦 、戰略性高科技貨品 、出口管制 |
| 外文關鍵詞： | Counter Proliferation, Data Mining, Strategic High-Tech Commodities, Control Management |
| 相關次數： | 點閱：517 下載：74 |
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WMD (weapons of mass destruction) proliferation and nuclear terrorism are the gravest dangers that the world faces. The international society established counter proliferation regimes and export control systems to prevent the proliferators from acquiring WMD and the related commodities that can be used in producing the weapons. However, there are limitations in export control systems. The trade security and facilitation should be both considered, while the proliferators attempt to establish procurement networks to circumvent export control systems and globalization has introduced challenges from the emergence of increasing number of global corpora¬tions and increasing volume of dual-use trade. By using the data mining tool of link analysis, the thesis attempts to develop a methodology to increase the coerciveness and accuracy of detecting problematic shipments from ordinary export activities in order to improve the export control management. From the research, it suggests that data mining is a feasible solution to improve the effectiveness and efficiency of export control. It can be used for discovering entities with not only explicit but also implicit proliferation concerns from a large quantity of datasets and increase the cost and difficulties of circumventing export control so that the proliferation activities are to be contained or hindered. Based on the findings, the thesis established an export control management model with data-mining solutions.
Acknowledgements ii
Abstract iii
TABLE OF CONTENTS iv
TABLE OF FIGURES vi
1. Introduction 1
1.1. Why is Export Control Important? 1
1.2. Taiwan’s Obligations on International Export Control 2
1.3. The Need to Improve Export Control Management 3
1.4. US Example to Reform Export Control Mechanism 4
1.5. The Proposed Management Model for Taiwan Export Control 5
1.6. Literature Review 6
1.6.1. Export Controls in Public and Private Sectors 6
1.6.2. Categories of Data Mining Technologies 8
1.6.3. Gaps of Current Methods 9
1.7. The Utility of the Research 10
1.8. Purpose of Research 12
1.9. Research Questions 13
1.10. Overview 13
2. The Proliferation Network 15
2.1. The Nuclear Proliferation Network: Potential Sources of Nuclear Terrorism 15
2.1.1. Russia 16
2.1.2. Pakistan 17
2.1.3. Libya 18
2.1.4. Iran 19
2.1.5. North Korea 20
2.2. Nuclear Black Market 22
2.3. Types of Networks 23
3. Evaluation of Export Control System 26
3.1. What Are Export Controls? 26
3.2. Key Elements of Export Control System 27
3.3. Taiwan Export Control Mechanism 30
3.3.1. Bureaucratic Process 31
3.3.2. Control list 31
3.3.3. Licensing System 31
3.3.4. Customs Authority 32
3.3.5. Verification 32
3.3.6. Penalties 32
3.4. Information Sharing-US Example 33
3.5. Export Control Challenges 34
4. Data Mining Solution 36
4.1. What is Data Mining? 36
4.2. Evaluation of Current Data Mining Technologies 37
4.2.1. Link Analysis 37
4.2.2. Landscape Visualization Tools 38
4.2.3. Quantitative Data Mining Tools 38
4.3. Selection of a Proper Tool 38
4.4. Sample Case--A. Q. Khan Proliferation Networks 39
4.5. Implementing Data Mining Solution to Export Control 41
4.5.1. Defining the Problem to Be Solved 41
4.5.2. Accessing and Preparing the Data 41
4.5.3. Defining Entities and Linkages 41
4.5.4. Data Processing 44
4.5.5. Link Analysis 46
5. Findings and Discussions 56
5.1. Estimate of Proliferation Situation 57
5.2. Evaluation of Export Control System 57
5.3. Selecting Link Analysis as the Research Method 58
5.4. Results of Analyzing Simulated Datasets 58
5.5. Export Control Management Model 61
6. Recommendations 65
Bibliography 66
Appendix 1 Related Articles under the Foreign Trade Act 70
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