| 研究生: |
陳錦烽 |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱: |
財務資料與風險評估之研究 無 |
| 指導教授: | 鄭丁旺 |
| 學位類別: |
碩士
Master |
| 系所名稱: |
商學院 - 會計學系 Department of Accounting |
| 論文出版年: | 1981 |
| 畢業學年度: | 69 |
| 語文別: | 中文 |
| 論文頁數: | 175 |
| 中文關鍵詞: | 無 |
| 相關次數: | 點閱:77 下載:0 |
| 分享至: |
| 查詢本校圖書館目錄 查詢臺灣博碩士論文知識加值系統 勘誤回報 |
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目錄
第一章 緒論1
第一節 研究動機與目的1
第二節 研究方法4
第三節 研究限制6
第四節 以後各章之說明8
第二章 風險評估、投資決策與效率資本市場假設11
第一節 風險評估與投資決策11
第二節 效率資本市場假設與風險評估15
第三節 組群理論應用於風險評估23
第四節 本章彙述32
第三章 財務資料、風險評估與投資決策39
第一節 財務資料預測能力之探討39
第二節 會計風險指標與市場風險指標48
第三節 財務資料與投資決策61
第四節 本章彙述70
第四章 有關市場風險指標與會計風險指標實證研究之介紹79
第一節 畢佛、凱特勒及修勒斯之實證研究79
第二節 畢佛及曼尼果之實證研究98
第三節 艾傑斯之研究106
第四節 各項實證研究之評述113
第五章 我國股票上市公司財務資料之實證研究121
第一節 實證研究之目的121
第二節 研究模式之建立123
第三節 研究範圍及資料來源126
第四節 研究結果之分析與解釋127
第五節 結語140
第六章 結論與建議145
第一節 結論145
第二節 建議150
參考書目155
附錄167
圖表目錄
圖次:
1-1決策過程2
1-2研究架構5
表次:
4-1前、後期會計風險指標相關係數86
4-2同期市場風險指標與會計風險指標之相關分析88
4-3前期工具性變數方程式之有關統計量93
4-4預測誤差之分析94
5-1列入研究之公司名稱126
5-2系統風險(β值)估計值分配之有關統計量130
5-3前、後期及全期市場風險指標之相關分析130
5-4會計風險指標之有關統計量132
5-5前、後期及全期會計風險指標之相關分析132
5-6同期市場風險指標與會計風險指標之相關分析134
5-7前期工具性變數方程式之有關統計量135
5-8預測誤差之分析136
附表一 各樣本公司前、後期及全期貝他值及T值167
附表二 各樣本股票成交量、值總和佔全市場之比率168
一、中文書籍及期刊
1.林煜宗。現代投資學—制度、理論與實證。台北:自印,民國70年4月初版。
2.林煜宗,“市場因素對台灣證券市場之股價變動影響”。證交資料月刊,194期,民國67年6月。頁1-9。
3.林煜宗,“財務分析的新境界”。主計月報,46卷2期,民國67年8月。頁24.-26.及頁18。
4.黃柱權。公司理財。台北:三民書局,民國63.年7月三版。
5.郭明哲。預測方法—理論與實例。中興經營管理叢書。台北:中興管理顧問公司,民國68.年7月三版。
6.鄭丁旺。現值會計。台北:自印,民國69.年10.月再版。
7.鄭丁旺,“現代會計理論簡介”。主計月報,44.卷4期,民國66.年10.月。頁25.-30.。
8.鄭丁旺•中級會計學,上册。台北:自印,民國69.年9月初版
二、英文書籍
1. Foster, George. Financial Statement Analysis. Englewood Cliffs, N. J. Prentice-Hall Inc, 1978.(台北:淡江書局翻印,民國67.6月)。
2. Francis, Jack Clark, and Archer, Stephen H. Portfolio Analysis. 2nd ed. (台北:華泰書局翻印,民國68.年)。
3. Neter, John, and Wasserman William. Applied Linear Statistical Models-Regression. Vol. 1.
Homewood, Illinois: Richard D. Irwin, Inc.,1974(台北:華泰書局翻印,民國69.年)。
三、英文期刊
1. Ball, Ray, and Rrown, Philip. “An Empirical Evaluation of Accounting Income Numbers.”
Journal of Accounting Research, Autumn 1968. pp.159-178.
2. _______.“Portfolio Theory and Accounting.” Journal of Accounting Research, Autumn 1969. pp.300-323.
3. Beaver, William H.; Kennelly, John W.; and Voss, William M. “Predictive Ability as a Criterion for the Evaluation of Accounting Data.” The Accounting Review, October 1968. pp .675-683.
4 . _______; Kettler, Paul; and Scholes, Myron. “The Association Between Market Determined and Accounting Determined Risk Measures.” The Accounting Review, October 1970. PP.654-682.
5. _______. “The Behavior of Security Prices and Its Implications for Accounting Research (Methods).” Supplement to The Accounting Review, 1972.pp .407-437.
6. _______. and Manegold, James. “The Association Between Market-Determined and Accounting-Determined Measures of Systematic Risk: Some Further Evidence.” Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, June 1975, pp.231-284.
7. _______. “Market Efficiency.” The Accounting Review, January 1981. pp.23-37.
8. Beja, Avraham. “On Systematic and Unsystematic Components of Financial Risk.” Journal of Finance, March 1972.pp.37-45.
9. Bildersee, John S. “The Association Between a Market-Determined Measure of Risk and Alternative Measures of Risk. “The Accounting Review, January 1975 .pp .81-98.
10. Blocher, Edward, and Chen, Kung H. “Assessing Industry Risk by Ratio Analysis- A Comment. “ The Accounting Review, January 1978.pp.204-209.
11. Blume, Marshall E. “On the Assessment of Risk. “ Journal of finance. March 1971. pp.1-10.
12. Bowman, Robert G. “The Theorectical Relationship Between Systematic Risk and Financial (Accounting) Variables.” Journal of Finance, June 1979.
pp.617-630.
13. Brenner, Menachem, and Smidt, Seymour. “ A Simple Model of Non-Stationarity of Systematic Risk.” Journal of Finance, September 1977. pp.1081-1092.
14. Derstine, Robert P., and Huefner, Ronald J. “Lifo-Fifo, Accounting Ratios and Market Risk. ” Journal of Accounting Research, Autumn 1974.pp.216-234.
15. Downes, David, and Dyckman, Thomas R. “A Critical Look at the Efficient Market Empirical Research Literature As It Relates to Accounting Information.” Accounting Review, April 1973.
pp.300-317.
16. Elgers, Pieter T. “Accounting-Based Risk Predictions: A Re-examination.” The Accounting Review, July 1980. pp.389-408.
17. Eskew, Robert K. “The Forecasting Ability of Accounting Risk Measures: Some Additional Evidence. “The Accounting Review, January 1979, pp.107-118.
18. Falk, Haim, and Ophir, Tsvi. “The Effect of Risk on the Use of Financial Statements by Investment Decision-Makers: A Case Study. “The Accounting Review, April 1973. pp.323-337.
19. _______, and Heintz, James A. “Assessing Industry Risk by Ratio Analysis.” The Accounting Review, October 1975.pp .758-779.
20. _______. “Assessing Industry Risk by Ratio Analysis: A Reply. “The Accounting Review, January 1978.pp.210-215.
21. _______, and Gordon, Lawerence A. “Assessing Industry Risk by Ratio Analysis : Validation.” The Accounting Review, January 1978.pp.216-227.
22. Fama, Eugene F. “Efficient Capital Market: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work.” Journal of Finance, May 1970.pp .383-423.
23. Finnerty, Joseph E.; Fitzsimmons, Rick N.; and Oliver, Thomas W. “Lease Capitalization and Systematic Risk.” The Accounting Review, October 1980. pp.631-639.
24. Fishburn, Peter C. “Theory Versus Pratice in Risk Analysis: An Empirical Study: A Comment.” The Accounting Review, July 1976.pp.657-662.
25. Gonedes, Nicholas J. “Efficient Capital Markets and External Accounting.” The Accounting Review, January 1972. pp .11-21.
26. _______. “ A Note on Accounting-Based and Market- Based Estimates of Systematic Risk.” Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, June 1975 pp.355-365.
27. Greer, Willis R. Jr. “Theory Versus Practice in Risk Analysis: An Empirical Study.” The Accounting Review, July 1974. pp.496-505.
28. Griffin, Paul A. “The Association between Relative Risk and Risk Estimates Derived from Quarterly Earnings and Dividends.” The Accounting Review, July 1976. pp.499-515.
29. Hamada, Robert S. “The Effect of the Firm’s Capital Structure on the Systematic Risk of Common Stocks.” Journal of Finance, 1972. pp.435-458.
30. Hill, Ned C., and Stone, Bernell K. “Accounting Betas, Systematic Operating Risk, and Financial Leverage: A Risk-Composition Approach to the Determinants of Systematic Risk.” Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, September 1980. pp .595-637.
31. Hoskins, C. G. “Theory Versus Practice in Risk Analysis: An Empirical Study: A Comment.” The Accounting Review, October 1975. pp.835-838.
32. Joyce, Jon M., and Vogel, Robert C. “The Uncertainty in Risk: Is Variance Unambiguous?” Journal of Finance, 1970. pp.127-134.
33. Kaplan, Robert S., and Roll, Richard. “Investor Evaluation of Accounting Information: Some Empirical Evidence.” .The Journal of Business, April 1972.pp .225-257.
34. King, Benjamin F. “Market and Industry Factors in Stock Price Behavior.” The Journal of Business, January 1966.pp.139-169.
35. Lev, Baruch, and Kunitzky, Sergius. “On the Association Between Smoothing Measures and the Risk of Common Stocks.” The Accounting Review, April 1974. pp.259-270.
36. Melicher, Ronald W., and Rush, David F. “Systematic Risk, Financial Data, and Bond Rating
Relationships in a Regulated Industry Environment.” Journal of Finance, May 1974. pp .537-544.
37. Meyers, Stephen L. “The Stationarity Problem in the Use of the Market Model of Security Price Behavior.” The Accounting Review, April 1973. pp .318-322.
38. Miller, Edward M. “Risk, Uncertainty, and Divergence of Opinion.” Journal of finance, September 1977 .pp.1151-1168.
39. O’Connor, Melvin C.”On the Usefulness of Financial Ratios to Investors in Common Stock.” The Accounting Review, April 1973.pp.339-352.
40. Ro, Byung T. “The Disclosure of Replacement Cost Accounting Data and Its Effect on Transaction Volumes.” The Accounting Review, January 1981.pp.70-84.
41. Rosenberg, Barr, and Mckibben, Walt. “The Prediction of Systematic and Specific Risk in Common Stocks.” Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, March 1973. pp.317-333.
42. Smith, R. G. E. “Uncertainty, Information and Investment Decision.” Journal of Finance, March 1971. pp.67-82.
43. Short, Daniel G. “The Impact of Price-Level Adjustment in the Context of Risk Assessment.” Supplement to Journal of Accounting Research, 1978. pp.259-272.
44. Thakker, Rashmi B. “The Association Between Market-Determined and Accounting-Determined Risk Measures: A Note.” Journal of Accounting Research, Spring
1978. pp.215-223.
45. Vasicek, Oldrich A. “A Note on Using Cross-Sectional Information in Bayesian Estimation of Security Betas.” Journal of Finance, December 1973. pp.1233-1239.
四、未出版著作
1.李建利,組群理論在財務管理上之應用,國立政治大學會計研究所碩士論文,民國67.年6月。
2.李廣進,台灣地區新上市股票短期投資報酬率之研究,國立台灣大學商學研究所碩士論文,民國69.年6月。
3.余錦昌,我國上市發行公司財務公開制度之研究,國立政治大學企業管理研究所碩士論文,民國65.年6月。
4.林金福,有效資本市場理論與會計情報之研究,國立政治大學會計研究所碩士論文,民國68.年6月。
5.林泉源,股票價格影響因素之實證研究,國立政治大學企業管理研究所碩士論文,民國67.年6月。
6.林鎮邦,台灣地區股票上市公司公布之財務報表所含情報量之研究,國立台灣大學商學研究所碩士論文,民國68.年6月。
7.洪石章,台灣股票市場投資組合風險之分析,國立台灣大學商學研究所碩士論文,民國68.年6月。
8.游啟源,台灣股票市場效率投資組合穩定性之研究,國立台灣大學企業管理研究所碩士論文,民國68.年6月。
9.謝徽榮,台灣股價變動短期資料預測能力之研究,國立台灣大學商學研究所碩士論文,民國66.年6月。
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