| 研究生: |
廖奕潔 Liao, Yi-Jie |
|---|---|
| 論文名稱: |
ESG股票最適資產配置:基因演算法及機器學習模型運用 Optimal Asset Allocation of ESG Stocks: Application of Genetic Algorithms and Machine Learning Models |
| 指導教授: |
黃泓智
Huang, Hong-Chih 曾毓英 Zeng,Yu-Ying |
| 口試委員: |
黃泓智
Huang, Hong-Chih 曾毓英 Tzeng, Yu-Ying 李永琮 Lee, Yung Tsung |
| 學位類別: |
碩士
Master |
| 系所名稱: |
商學院 - 風險管理與保險學系 Department of Risk Management and Insurance |
| 論文出版年: | 2023 |
| 畢業學年度: | 111 |
| 語文別: | 中文 |
| 論文頁數: | 44 |
| 中文關鍵詞: | ESG 投資組合 、離散小波轉換 、基因演算法 、極限學習機 |
| 外文關鍵詞: | ESG Portfolio, Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT), Genetic Algorithm (GA), Extreme Learning Machine (ELM) |
| 相關次數: | 點閱:55 下載:0 |
| 分享至: |
| 查詢本校圖書館目錄 查詢臺灣博碩士論文知識加值系統 勘誤回報 |
人們對於永續的意識不斷提高,ESG指標也成為投資的重要考量因素。因此,本研究使用2012年至2021年台股上市公司之股價資訊、技術指標以及ESG評分資料,首先使用離散小波轉換去除股價噪音,透過基因演算法之特徵篩選技術挑選合適的特徵,並結合極限學習機以預測股價,保留高報酬的股票,以切線及等權重的方法建立投資組合,並進行回測。本文分為A測試、B測試及C測試三種測試,A測試在特徵值篩選階段及加入ESG評分,B測試在機器學習階段加入ESG評分,C測試整個流程都沒有加入ESG分評分。實驗結果發現,經過特徵值篩選後,在A測試和C測試回測表現上較好,其中A測試的波動又比C測試低,故推測ESG具有穩定投資組合波動度效果, so it is speculated that ESG can stabilize the volatility of the investment portfolio。另外,ESG評分中,影響台灣企業股票報酬率最多的為社會責任(S)。
The increasing awareness of sustainable development issues makes ESG indicators become an important consideration for investment. Therefore, this study uses the stock price information, technical indicators and ESG scores of listed companies in Taiwan from 2012 to 2021 as variable data. First, use the discrete wavelet transform to remove the noise of the stock price. Then these data are selected through the feature screening technology of Genetic Algorithm (GA) to select appropriate features and combined with Extreme Learning Machine (ELM) to predict stock prices. Then, according to the forecast results, the high-return stocks are reserved, and the investment portfolio is established with the method of Tangency Portfolio and Equal Weight Portfolio, and the backtest is conducted. This study is divided into three tests: Test A, Test B and Test C. Test A adds ESG scores in the feature selection stage, Test B adds ESG scores in the machine learning stage, Test C does not add ESG scores in the entire process. The experimental results show that after feature selection, the backtest performances of Test A and Test C are better, and the volatility of Test A is lower than that of Test C, so it is speculated that ESG can stabilize the volatility of the investment portfolio. In addition, among the ESG ratings, Social (S) has the greatest impact on the stock returns of Taiwanese companies.
第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究動機與背景 1
第二節 研究目的 2
第三節 研究流程 2
第二章 文獻探討 4
第一節 ESG評分與公司財務績效文獻回顧 4
第二節 離散小波轉換文獻回顧 5
第三節 機器學習模型文獻回顧 6
第四節 特徵值篩選及基因演算法文獻回顧 7
第三章 研究方法 9
第一節 研究架構 9
第二節 資料預處理與特徵值生成 11
第三節 特徵值篩選 13
第四節 機器學習模型 18
第五節 整體模型之建構 22
第六節 績效指標說明 24
第四章 實證結果 26
第一節 基因演算法結果分析 26
第二節 極限學習機結果分析 30
第五章 結論與建議 35
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全文公開日期 2028/08/06