本研究探討臺灣選情緊張程度與投票率之間的實證關係。主要係依據 Downs (1957) 的理性投票者模型及參考 Matsusaka and Palda (1993) 衡量選情緊張程度的方式，不過將選情緊張程度改成使用選前民調資料。本研究結果發現選情緊張程度與投票率之間呈現不顯著關係。加入兩岸經濟差異程度變數之後，結果兩岸經濟差異程度與投票率之間呈現顯著負向關係，選情緊張程度與投票率之間也由不顯著關係變成顯著正向關係，與 Downsian 緊張程度假設結論相反。本文另一方面則探討個別選民的投票意願，結果發現選情緊張程度與選民投票意願之間呈現顯著負向關係，與 Downsian 緊張程度假設結論相同。加入兩岸經濟差異程度變數後，結果兩岸經濟差異程度與選民投票意願之間呈現顯著負向關係。

一、中文部分
盛治仁 (2003)，「理性抉擇理論在政治學運用之探討」，《東吳政治學報》，第 17 期，21-51。

二、英文部分
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