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本研究探討新聞情緒對股票累積超額報酬(CAR)的影響,並從信念摩擦(belief friction)的觀點,分析不同大型語言模型對同一則新聞之情緒解讀分歧,是否會改變新聞情緒的價格傳導效果。研究以 2020 年至 2024 年間 S\&P 500 成分股相關新聞為樣本,利用多種大型語言模型衡量新聞情緒,並建構情緒解讀分歧指標,以分析新聞情緒、解讀分歧與股價反應之間的關係。
新聞情緒對股票累積超額報酬具有顯著正向影響,且其效果會隨事件時間逐步累積,顯示市場對新聞情緒的反應並非立即完成,而具有持續性的價格調整過程。此外,不同模型對同一則新聞的情緒解讀分歧會削弱新聞情緒對股價的影響,支持本研究所提出之信念摩擦觀點,亦即當市場難以對資訊形成一致解讀時,情緒訊號較不易轉化為一致方向的交易行為與價格變動。研究亦發現,新聞情緒與股價反應之間存在非線性關係,顯示市場對不同強度情緒訊號的反應程度並不相同。
This study examines the impact of news sentiment on cumulative abnormal returns (CAR) and, from the perspective of belief friction, investigates whether divergence in sentiment interpretation across different large language models alters the price transmission effect of news sentiment. Using news articles related to S\&P 500 constituent firms from 2020 to 2024 as the sample, the study measures news sentiment with multiple large language models and constructs an interpretation-divergence indicator to analyze the relationship among news sentiment, interpretive disagreement, and stock price reactions.
The results show that news sentiment has a significant positive effect on cumulative abnormal returns, and that this effect accumulates gradually over event time, indicating that the market's response to news sentiment is not completed immediately but unfolds through a persistent price adjustment process. In addition, divergence in sentiment interpretation across different models weakens the impact of news sentiment on stock prices, supporting the proposed belief-friction view—that when the market cannot form a consistent interpretation of information, sentiment signals are less likely to be translated into coordinated trading behavior and price movements. The study also finds a nonlinear relationship between news sentiment and stock price reactions, suggesting that the market responds differently to sentiment signals of varying intensity.
摘要 i
Abstract ii
目錄 iv
圖目錄 vii
表目錄 viii
第一章 緒論 1
1.1 研究動機與背景 1
1.2 研究目的 2
1.3 研究方法與資料 3
1.4 主要研究發現與貢獻 4
1.5 後續章節安排 5
第二章 文獻回顧 7
2.1 金融文本情緒分析與大語言模型的發展 7
2.2 新聞情緒對股票報酬的可解釋性 8
2.3 情緒指標的測量誤差與工具變數法 9
2.4 情緒模糊性的衡量:熵(Entropy)方法 10
2.5 意見分歧與資產定價 10
第三章 研究方法 12
3.1 大語言模型 12
3.2 情緒分數、分歧性與模糊性指標 14
3.3 事件研究架構設計 17
3.4 工具變數與內生性處理 21
第四章 實證分析 30
4.1 敘述統計與識別檢驗 30
4.2 基準 IV-2SLS 模型 44
4.3 局部投影法 IV-2SLS 模型 46
4.4 事件研究式動態 IV-2SLS 模型 49
4.5 非線性情緒反應分析(控制函數法) 57
4.6 情緒測量差異的獨立效應 75
第五章 結論 79
參考文獻 81
附錄 A 傾向分數配對穩健性分析 88
附錄 B 異質性分析(heterogeneity) 92
B.1 FinBERT 情緒的異質性 93
B.2 模糊性(Entropy)的異質性 96
B.3 分歧性(PCA_Residuals)的異質性 99
B.4 新聞來源等級(SOURCE_RANK)的異質性 102
B.5 尾端風險的分位數迴歸分析 107
B.5.1 模型設定與變數定義 107
B.5.2 估計結果與尾端異質性 109
附錄 C OPT、BART 情緒分數之外生性檢驗 112
附錄 D 其餘表格 114
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全文公開日期 2031/06/23